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Demographic Destiny:  Higher Education Enrollment Trends

Demographic Destiny:  Higher Education Enrollment Trends . Don Hossler Professor of Educational Leadership & Policy Studies Indiana University Bloomington. An Exemplar. Demographic and Enrollment Trends The Nation New York Public Policy Trends Federal Trends State Trends

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Demographic Destiny:  Higher Education Enrollment Trends

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  1. Demographic Destiny:  Higher Education Enrollment Trends Don Hossler Professor of Educational Leadership & Policy Studies Indiana University Bloomington

  2. An Exemplar • Demographic and Enrollment Trends • The Nation • New York • Public Policy Trends • Federal Trends • State Trends • Implications for the Private Sector • Policy Implications • Enrollment Management Implications

  3. The Beginning of the Pipeline

  4. Source: U.S. Department of Education 11% Growth 28% Growth High School Graduates

  5. More than 50% 36% to 50% 21% to 35% 10% to 20% Less than 10% Minority School Enrollments Source: U.S. Department of Education

  6. Enrollment Patterns Among Four-Year Institutions 68.9% 70.7% 70.5%

  7. A Summative Look at Market Share Across All Sectors Source: U. S. Department of Education

  8. Switching to a State View

  9. The Next Generation

  10. The High School Pipeline – One View

  11. But What’s Under the Hood?A Look at Ethnicity of Graduates

  12. And Where Will They Come From?

  13. These Last Slides Present a Probable Profile of…. • Students of color • Lower income students • Who are more likely to be price sensitive • Who will be within easy commuting distance of community colleges

  14. A Look at Enrollment Patterns by Sector

  15. It Appears the Private Sector is Doing Well

  16. A Look Across All Sectors

  17. An Interesting Look at the Public Sector

  18. But, Where Do Transfers Go?

  19. Now, What About Public Policy Shifts?

  20. Federal Policy Trends • Focus on transferability • From traditionally accredited 2 yr IHES • From proprietary schools • Ways to constrain demands for financial aid • Current federal policies being proposed could have a chilling impact on most public and private 4 years and at least indirectly advantage two year sector

  21. Relevant State Policy Trends at the National Level • Constrain demands for state resources going to postsecondary education • Appropriations to institutions • Support for student financial aid • Seamless transferability • Encourage transfer & articulation agreements • Mandate them • All of these are likely to increase the social acceptability of starting at Two-Year Colleges

  22. New York State Policy Trends • Little focus on seamless transferability – at least for now • Looking for ways to constrain state appropriations for higher education • This could result in higher tuition in the public sector and this would help privates • State University of New York Board– What are the incentive structures for them around their institutions?

  23. Thoughts and Implications • Private sector has done well • Demographic shifts pose potential problems – they have more in common characteristics of students attending 2 year colleges • Students starting in 2 year colleges already have a preference for publics • Public policy trends could result in longer term student preference shifts toward community colleges which could result in more students at publics • Will SUNY incentivize transferring within public sector institutions?

  24. Public an private, two-years and four-years should monitor these trends • It is axiomatic, institutions that are less wealthy and selective should be more concerned

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