Temperature precipitation outlook
1 / 11

Temperature/Precipitation Outlook - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Temperature/Precipitation Outlook. Outlook through August 1: Above Normal temperature and Normal precipitation probability. Drought. The current Drought Monitor indicates that drought conditions range from Moderate to Extreme for CRD

I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.

Download Presentationdownload

Temperature/Precipitation Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript

Temperature precipitation outlook

Temperature/Precipitation Outlook

  • Outlook through August 1: Above Normal temperature and Normal precipitation probability



  • The current Drought Monitor indicates that drought conditions range from Moderate to Extreme for CRD

  • The Drought Outlook for Arizona shows that drought conditions will persist or intensify in the Southern end of CRD and potential for improvement in Northern areas of CRD

Live fuel moisture

Live Fuel Moisture

Dead fuel moisture

Dead Fuel Moisture

  • Dead Fuel Moisture is the moisture content of dead organic fuels that is controlled entirely by exposure to environmental conditions. There are four fuel classes modeled within NFDRS.

  • 1-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels less than ¼” in diameter. Very responsive to current conditions (temperature, humidity, precipitation). Value range: 1 - 80%

  • 10-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from ¼” to 1” in diameter. Responsive to daily changes in weather. Value range: 1 - 60%

  • 100-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from 1” to 3” in diameter. As opposed to 1 & 10-Hour, these fuels are impacted by 24-hour trends (Max/Min Temp, Max/Min RH, precipitation duration). Value range: 1 - 50%

  • 1000-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from 3” to 8” in diameter. Value is based on running 7-day average. Impacted by 24-hour Max/Min Temp, Max/Min RH and precipitation duration values for a 7-day period. Value range: 1 - 40%

Crd 1000 hr fm

CRD 1000-hr FM

  • After rising above average in early July, the 1000-Hour Fuel Moisture is now trending lower and has dropped below average in CRD Deserts

Energy release component

Energy Release Component

The Energy Release Component is a number related to the available energy within the flaming front at the head of a fire. Daily variations in ERC are due to changes in the moisture content of the fuels present, both live and dead. As live fuels cureand larger dead fuels dry, ERC values get higher.

The 1000-hr Fuel Moisture is one of the primary inputs into the ERC calculationand as such, 24-hour Max/Min Temperature, Max/Min RH and Precipitation Duration all affect the calculation. Since wind and fine fuel moisture do not affect the ERC calculation, the daily variation is relatively small.

The ERC scale is open-ended or unlimited and is heavily dependent on the fuel model that is being used. Historically in the CRD Deserts, the highest ERC values in the G fuel model have been around 120, while the highest ERC values in the CRD Uplandshave been around 114.

Crd erc values trend

CRD ERC Values/Trend

  • After dropping below average in early July, the ERC has risen back above average

Kingman precipitation

Kingman Precipitation

  • Total of 1.23” recorded at Union Pass since January 1

Yuma precipitation

Yuma Precipitation

  • Total of 0.59” recorded at Fort Yuma since January 1

Crd fire activity 2014

CRD Fire Activity - 2014

Fire Size Class

A: 0 - .25

B: .26 - 9.9

C: 10 - 99

D: 100 - 299

E: 300 - 999

F: 1000 - 4999

G: 5000 +

Fire potential outlook

Fire Potential Outlook

  • Login