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The Evolution of Poland’s Foreign Policy

DR. Artur Adamczyk Warsaw University Centre For Europe. The Evolution of Poland’s Foreign Policy. History X/XI Century. 966 AD - the birth of Poland (Christianisation) 1000 AD – summit in Gniezno 1025 AD – the first Polish king Bolesław Chrobry was crowned. History XIV/XV Century.

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The Evolution of Poland’s Foreign Policy

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  1. DR. Artur Adamczyk Warsaw University Centre For Europe The Evolution of Poland’s Foreign Policy

  2. History X/XI Century 966 AD - the birth of Poland (Christianisation) 1000 AD – summit in Gniezno 1025 AD – the first Polish king Bolesław Chrobry was crowned

  3. History XIV/XV Century 1383 – Polish- Lithuanian Union The Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania 1410 – the battle of Tannenberg – Poland’s most significant victory

  4. 1569 – Consolidation of Polish-Lithuanian Union Commonwealth of Both Nations

  5. XVII Century – a bad time for Poland Invaded by the Swedish – 5 years of occupation War with Russia – The loss of Ukraine Wars with the Turkish Empire 1683 the battle of Vienna – the then Polish King John III Sobieski defeated the Turkish army

  6. XVIII and XIX Century – Poland’s darkest hour 1772, 1793, 1795 – the entire Polish territory was divided between Prussia, Austria and Russia 1795 – Poland lost its sovereignity and disappeared from the political map of Europe

  7. 1918 – Poland regained its sovereignity 1919-1921 War with Soviet Russia the battle of Warsaw 1919 – Czechoslovakia attacked Poland and regained some of its territory 1920 – Poland conquered Vilnus from Lithuania using military force

  8. 1.09.1939 – World War II began 17.09.1939 – Russian invasion of East Poland

  9. Poland after 1945

  10. 1955 – the establishment of The Warsaw Pact 1956 – Poznan uprising 1980 – The SOLIDARITY movement

  11. June 1989 – The first free Parliamentary elections Poland regained its sovereignty after 45 years of communism

  12. Political changes in Europe

  13. Determinants of foreign policy on the international role of states • Internal determinants - Geopolitical - Demographic - Economic - Military • External determinants - Relations with neighbours - Relations in Regions - Membership in international organisations

  14. Geopolitical determinats of Polish Foreign PolicyTerritory 312,683 km2

  15. Political system - The current Constitution was established in 1997 - Poland is aparliamentary republic - Legislative power is split between two chambers: Sejm (460) i Senat (100) - Executive power: the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers and the President

  16. Political Parties Civic Platform (PO)– 206 MPs Law and Justice (PiS) – 137 MPs Your Movement (Ruch PL) – 43 MPs Polish Peoples’ Party (PSL) – 28 MPs Democratic Left Allience (SLD) – 25 MPs United Poland (SP) – 19 MPs Non alligned – 2 MPs, included a German Minority – 1 MP

  17. Demographic Determinats of Polish Foreign Policy Number of Citizens – 38.5 mln of Polish origin– 97% The most populated cities: Warsaw – 2 mln Kraków – 800 000 Lodz – 700 000 Wrocław – 600 000 Poznań – 400 00

  18. National minorities in Poland (Polish cenzus of 2011) German (148 thousand) Bialorussian (48 thousand) Ukrainian (51 thousand) Russian (13 thousand) Lithuanian (8 thousand) Jewish (7.5 thousand) Slovak (3.5 thousand) Czechs (3.5 thousand) Greek (3.5 thousand)

  19. Immigration to Poland by country An annual influx of 32 000 people (0.1%) From Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Bielarussia, Russia, Georgia. From Asia: Vietnam, China and India

  20. Polish emigration in thousands

  21. Economic Determinats of Polish Foreign Policy Rate of Unemployment– 12%

  22. Natural Resources

  23. Poland is dependent on natural gas and oil supplies from Russia

  24. GDP $531.8 bln GDP per capita $20100 Economic growth GDP 2006- 6.2 % 2007- 6.7 % 2008- 4.8 % 2009- 1.1 % 2010- 3.8% 2011- 3.8 % 2012 – 1.9 % 2013 – 1.4 % The Polish Economy GDP structure (2012) agriculture (3.4%), industry (33.6%), services (63%) The World Bank has forecast that Poland's GDP will rise from 1.5 percent to 2.8 percent in 2014

  25. Polish Exports 197.1 bln PLN (2011) Products: - Machinery and transport equipment 37.8%, - Manufacturing goods 40.7%, - Food and live animals 7.6% Main partners: Germany 26.9%, France 7.1%, Great Britain 6.4%, Italy 6.3%, Czech Rep. 6.2%, Russia 4.5%, The Netherlands 4.5%..., Grecja 0.4%

  26. Polish Imports 217.9 bln PLN (2012) Products: - Machinery and transport equipment 38%, - Manufacturing goods 21%, - Chemicals 15%, - Mineral fuels and related materials 9% Main Partners: Germany 29.1%, Russia 8.8%, The Netherlands 6%, Italy 5.8%, China 5.6%, France 4.5%, Czech Republic 4.2%..., Greece 0.2%

  27. Military determinants of Polish Foreign Policy Since 2009 Poland has had a professional army composed of 100 000 soldiers Additional services 29, 520 Naval forces 8,063 Total Air force 16, 547 Land forces 45, 870

  28. Polish soldiers have been engaged in many foreign peacekeeping missions within The UN, NATO and The EU.

  29. Diplomatic services Poland has 89 embassies and 36 consulates around the world.

  30. Determinants of foreign policy on the international role of states • External determinants - Relations with neighbours - Membership in international organisations

  31. Relations with neighboursPoland and Germany • 1990 - Polish-German Treaty on Borders • 1991 - Treaty of Good Neighbourhood and Friendly Cooperation • 1991 - Weimar Triangle

  32. Relations with neighboursPoland and Germany • Germany is Poland’s most important economic partner! • Economic exchange: 69 bln EUR • PL export: 35.4 bln EUR (26%) • PL import: 33.5 bln EUR (22%) • Direct German investment in Poland – 20.75 bln EUR • Direct Polish investment in Germany - 293 mln EUR

  33. Relations with neighbours Visegrad Group (V4) Members of Visegrad Group: Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary V4 have shared the same foreign policy targets since the fall of communism: - integration with western organisations - NATO membership - EU membership - strengthening international economic and political positions

  34. Relations with neighbours Visegrad Group (V4) V4 Prime Ministers meet twice a year (in June and December) V4 Presidents meet every year (in September) Before every summit of The European Council, V4 Prime Ministers try to define their common position on international matters The common targets: - intensification of cooperation in the field of energy supplies (diversification) - cooperation within nuclear-power-station building projects - strong cooperation within NATO -cooperation in the framework of The EU (supporting the Eastern Partnership) Poland is the biggest country of V4 and plays the role of its leader

  35. Relations with neighboursPOLAND AND LITHUANIA Poland renewed diplomatic relations with Lithuania in 1991 1994 Treaty of Good Neighbourhood and Friendly Cooperation was signed Poland’s main problem in bilateral relations is the fact that the Polish national minority stands at 7% of the total population Poland is the third largest economic partner for Lithuania (after Germany and Russia) The common targets: - intensification of energy-supply cooperation (diversification) - cooperation in nuclear-power-station building projects - strong cooperation within NATO -cooperation in the framework of The EU (supporting the Eastern Partership)

  36. POLAND - UKRAINE • - 1991 Poland was the first state to recognise Ukraine’s independency • 1992 Treaty of Good Neighbourhood, Friendly Relations and Cooperation was signed • 1993 A Military Cooperation Agreement was signed • 1998 The Polish government announced that its partnership with Ukraine was and still is the most important priority of Polish foreign policy • 2005 The Polish government supported the ‘Orange revolution’ • 2010 The Polish government was uncomfortable with President Janukowych but recognised his election

  37. POLAND- RUSSIA 1991 - The collapse of the Soviet Union and dissolution of The Warsaw Pact 1992 – withdrawal of the last Russian Forces from Poland Since 1992 NATO membership has been the most important target of the Polish government 1996 – Jamal gas pipeline was finished 1999 – Poland became a member of NATO 2003 – Polish support for the ‘Rose revolution’ in Georgia 2004 – Poland achieved EU membership 2004 – Polish support for the ‘Orange revolution’ in Ukraine

  38. Poland in international organisations • 1945 – membership gained to The United Nations • 1991 - membership gained to The Council of Europe • 1992 - membership gained to The Council of Baltic States • 1994 – membership gained to The Organisation Of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) • 1999 – membership gained to NATO • 2004 – membership gained to the European Union

  39. Poland in international organisations membership in NATO • The main targets of membership: - to look for stabilised and confirmed alliances in the western world which can guarantee Poland’s security - the reinforcement of Poland’s defence potential - the strenghthening of the worldwide perception of Poland as a stabilised and predictable country The most important value for Poland is article 5: collective self-defence Poland has given its experience in the field of Eastern policy

  40. Poland’s activity in NATO • 2003 Poland supported American military intervention in Iraq • Poland became a very close ally to the US • Since 2003 Poland has supported very close relations between NATO and Ukraine and Georgia • Since 2002 Poland has been participating in the war effort in Afganistan (ISAF) • Polish military engagement in Iraq (2003-2008) – 15 000 soldiers deployed • Since 2008 Poland has changed its position towards the US – President Obama decided not to build an ‘antimissile shield’ in Central Europe

  41. Poland in international organisationsmembership in The EU • 1999 - The Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) - Poland was reluctant and critical of CSDP Poland’s position towards CSDP: - Europeans should develop their military experience within NATO - mirroring of roles between NATO and The EU is not welcomed • 2004 – Since Poland gained membership to the European Union our position has changed - Poland now participates in the building of assets and capabilities of ESDP (the creation of battle groups) - NATO should be the most important defence structure in Europe

  42. Poland in international organisationsmembership in The EU • Since 2008 the Polish government has changed its attitude towards The Common Security and Defence Policy - anxiety connected to the American withdrawal from Europe - the lack of the US engagement in the Russian-Georgian war • Polish politicians are interested in building a strong military influence of the EU

  43. Poland in international organisationsmembership in The EU • Polish engagement in the framework of The Common Security and Defence Policy • EU missions in Chad and Central African Republic (European Union Force Chad/CAR) • EU mission in Kongo (EUFOR) • EU mission to Bosnia EUFOR Althea (since 2004) • The creation of a common battle group between Poland, Germany and Slovakia (2006) • The establishement of the Weimar battle group between Poland, Gremany and France (2006) • The creation of the Visegrad battle group which consists of Poland, The Czech Rep. and Hungary (2013)

  44. Poland in international organisationsmembership in The EU • Poland has supported strenthening cooperation in the CSFP within Lisbon Treaty: - the creation of the office of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy - solidarity and mutual assistance in the case of agression against the memberstates - enforcement of energy security • Poland supported establishment of the Union for Mediterranean in 2008 • The Polish government has been the main initiator of the Eastern Partnership (2009)

  45. Polish priorities • Strong Poland in a strong political union: Building a competitive, open and secure Union of solidarity, bearing joint responsibility for the future of European integration, while ensuring Poland’s interests shall be respected by its other members; constructive participation in the EU decision making process for the success of both Poland on the European scene, and the EU on the global scene. ● Poland as a reliable ally in a stable transatlantic order: Developing one’s own deterrence capabilities and maintaining NATO’s reliability as a defence alliance; developing EU capabilities with respect to resources and security building measures, independent and complementary to NATO’s; participation in mutual confidence building measures between the West and Russia; close cooperation with Ukraine and other countries in Eastern Europe and South Caucasus; combating terrorism and counteracting the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. ● Poland open to different dimensions of regional cooperation: Cooperation with the West for the sake of security and a strong economy; openness and solidarity with the East; reliance on models from the North in the interests of the quality of life of citizens; partnership with the South in pursuing common objectives of civilization; and enhancement of cooperation among the Visegrád Group of countries.

  46. Ukraine and Crimea

  47. The European Union’s relations with Ukraine • 1998 - EU and Ukraine – Partnership and Cooperation Agreement • Targets of the Partnership: • building stronger relations, • supporting the creation and development of democratic institutions in Ukraine, • promoting neighbourly relations between Ukraine and its neighbours, • promoting respect for human rights

  48. The European Union’s relations with Ukraine • 1999 - the European Union ‘s common strategy towards Ukraine • The main goals of the strategy are: • strengthening the democratic rule of law and market economy in Ukraine, • developing cooperation for stability and security in Europe and joint problem-solving, • establishing closer cooperation in the fields of economy, politics, culture, justice and home affairs.

  49. The European Union’s relations with Ukraine 2005 – The Action Plan which does not assume Ukraine membership in the EU 2013 - The UE – proposal to sign Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTA)

  50. Ukraine and Crimea

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