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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services. Richard Fulton . NWS Science & Technology Committee September 17, 2002. Outline. Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary. NWS

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Hydrologic Services Richard Fulton NWS Science & Technology Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision / Benefits • Goals / Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

  3. NWS Richard Fulton (OHD / HL) David Reynolds (WFO Monterey, CA) Dong-Jun Seo (OHD / HL) John Schaake (OHD / HL) Edwin Danaher (NCEP / HPC) Thomas Donaldson (OCWWS / HSD) OAR Kevin Kelleher (NSSL) Marty Ralph (ETL) Brooks Martner (ETL) NESDIS Roderick Scofield (ORA) Robert Kuligowski (ORA) Hydrologic ServicesTeam Composition

  4. Hydrologic ServicesVision / Benefits Vision Accurate, Graphically-Based, Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess and Deficits More Frequently at More Locations • $240M/yr in Flood Loss Savings and $520M/yr in Economic Benefits to Water Resource Managers (2002 NHWC Report)

  5. Low Risk High Risk On Track Hydrologic ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12

  6. Hydrologic ServicesKey Information Gaps • Quantitative Precipitation Information (QPE & QPF) Unbiased Precipitation Estimates with Reliability Information Reliable 0-6 Hour Precip. Nowcasts Longer-term, Unbiased Model QPFs • Hydrologic Forecasting High-resolution Flash Flood Forecasts & Warnings Probabilistic River Forecasts Using 0-3 day QPF and Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

  7. Hydrologic ServicesKey S&T Solutions

  8. 10 02 05 06 07 08 04 09 11 12 03 Hydrologic Services Key S&T Solutions Multisensor QPE Prob. QPE Polariz. QPE Observations GOES+POES Hyperspectral GPM Distr. model ESP Hydro DA Deployment DA/Models Region Ens+DA 8km WRF Orographic model OTE JCSDA Fld Fcst Maps Forecast Techniques FFMP DTE QP+Hydro Nowcasts Phased Array Radar Wireless, PDA GIS R&D Enabling Techn. Internet-Next Graphical products Dissemination Prob. QPF products PDSs in Ensemble fcsts, Polariz. radar, Distributed hydro. models Training

  9. Hydrologic ServicesOutstanding R&D Needs • Develop QPE Techniques That Optimally Blend Next-generation Radar, Satellite (e.g, GPM), and Rain Gauge Data • Improve Short-Term Radar-Satellite Precipitation Nowcasting Techniques Blended with NWP Forecasts • Develop High Resolution Hydrologic Forecast Models of Water Excess-Deficit at Ungauged Locations • Develop Ensemble NWP and Hydrologic Model Forecasts with Associated Reliability Information • Improve NWP Model Physics and Increase Assimilation of Existing Observational Datasets • Implement Hydrometeorological Testbeds to Demonstrate & Evaluate Next-Generation Datasets, Forecast Techniques, & Models

  10. Hydrologic ServicesSummary Vision Minutes-to-Months Probabilistic Forecasts and Warnings of Water Excess & Deficits More Frequently at More Locations R&D Needs • Better QPEs and QPFs for Input to Advanced Hydrologic Forecast Models • Probabilistic NWP and Hydrologic Models with Higher Resolution, Improved Physics and Data Assimilation • Hydrometeorological Testbeds Increasing Performance Deploy High Resolution Hydrologic Models Enhance Flash Flood Monitoring Tools Location-specific Warnings Graphical, Probabilistic Products Deploy Dual Polarization & Satellite Upgrades On-going Training 2002 2007 2012 2020

  11. Back-up Information

  12. Primary Customers & Partners • Citizens • Emergency Managers, FEMA • Water Resource Managers (dam & hydroelectric plant operators) • Water Transportation and Navigation • Agriculture • Construction Industry • Transportation and Commerce • Municipal Public Works Departments • Federal Agency Cooperators (COE, USGS, USBR, EPA, USDA) • Recreational Users

  13. Key Products & Services Radar-based very short range (0-3 hrs) QPF NWP-based QPF for short and medium ranges HPC/RFC forecaster value-added QPF products for days 1-5 MOS value-added QPF Potential evaporation forecasts • Public river stage and flow forecasts of water excess & deficit • River and flash flood watches and warnings • Forecast discussion products • Radar and satellite precipitation estimates • Rain gauge data products • Flash Flood Guidance products

  14. Hydrologic ServicesS & T Roadmap

  15. Hydrologic ServicesFlash Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures

  16. Hydrologic ServicesQuantitative Precipitation Forecast SkillPerformance Measure

  17. Hydrologic ServicesRiver Flood Warning Skill Performance Measures

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