Science and Technology Infusion Plan
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 19

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 48 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones. Daniel Meléndez. NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002. Outline. Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary. Tropical Cyclones Team Composition.

Download Presentation

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Science and technology infusion plan for tropical cyclones

Science and Technology Infusion Plan

for

Tropical Cyclones

Daniel Meléndez

NWS S&T Committee

September 17, 2002


Outline

Outline

  • Team Composition

  • Vision / Benefits

  • Goals / Targets

  • Key Information Gaps

  • Key Solutions

  • Outstanding R & D Needs

  • Summary


Tropical cyclones team composition

Tropical CyclonesTeam Composition

  • Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)

  • Scott Kiser (NWS/OS)

  • Richard Knabb (TPC)

  • Miles Lawrence (TPC)

  • Xiaofan Li (NESDIS)

  • Frank Marks (OAR/HRD)

  • Morris Bender (GFDL)

  • Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL)

  • Gregg Engel (JTWC)

  • Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC)

  • Robert Tuleya (NCEP)

  • Frank Wells (WFO/Guam)

  • Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)


Tropical cyclones vision benefits

Tropical CyclonesVision / Benefits

  • 2025 Vision

  • 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm

  • 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt

  • Save Lives / Enhanced Public Safety

  • Improved Response Capability of Emergency Managers

  • Mitigate Property Loss

  • Economic Impact Increasingly Complex (coastal development….)


Tropical cyclones goals targets to fy 12

On Track

Low Risk

High Risk

Tropical CyclonesGoals/Targets to FY 12


Hydrologic services goals targets to fy 12

Low Risk

High Risk

On Track

Hydrologic ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12


Tropical cyclones key information gaps not ranked

Tropical CyclonesKey Information Gaps (not ranked)

  • Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Storms

  • More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast

  • Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty

  • More Precise Position of Circulation Center

  • Higher Resolution Storm Wind Data


Science and technology infusion plan for tropical cyclones

Tropical CyclonesKey S&T Solutions


Science and technology infusion plan for tropical cyclones

Tropical CyclonesKey S&T Solutions


Tropical cyclones key s t solutions current programmatic phase

10

02

05

06

07

08

04

09

11

12

03

Tropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsCurrent Programmatic Phase

Targeted Obs*

*Aircraft Upgrades (SFMR, GPS dropsondes…)

Observations

Adaptive Obs

*Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA

Deployment

*Advanced DA of Satellite Data

OTE

*Oceanic DA

DA/Models

HWRF 7km

*Hurricane WRF

DTE

Core Init

*GFS Ensembles

R&D

*Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques

*JHT Tech Transfer

Enabling Process


Tropical cyclones outstanding r d needs

Tropical CyclonesOutstanding R&D Needs

  • Rapid Intensity Changing Storms

  • Shear Effects on Track and Intensity

  • Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model Output

  • Improved Data Assimilation

  • Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…)

  • Model Physics Sensitivities

  • Ensemble Techniques

  • Adaptive Observations/Targeting

  • Predictability Limits


Tropical cyclones summary

Tropical CyclonesSummary

  • Vision

  • 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm

  • 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt

  • R&D Needs

  • Rapid Intensity Changing Storms

  • Shear Effects on Track & Intensity

  • Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance

  • Improved Data Assimilation

  • Improved Model Physics

  • Model Physics Sensitivities

  • Ensemble Techniques

  • Adaptive Observations

  • Predictability Limits

  • Implement Hurricane WRF

  • Data Assimilation

  • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques

  • Expand Adaptive Strategies

  • New Satellite Remote Sensing

Increasing Performance

  • Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades

  • Expand Targeted Observations

Joint Hurricane Testbed

2002

2007

2012

2020


Tropical cyclones summary1

Tropical CyclonesSummary

  • Improved track and intensity performances depend mostly on advances in numerical prediction/data assimilation

  • Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – awaits significantly improved storm core specification and numerical forecasting R & D


Tropical cyclones

Tropical Cyclones

BACKGROUND SLIDES


Backup

Backup


Backup1

Backup


Tropical cyclones primary customers partners

Tropical CyclonesPrimary Customers/Partners

  • Public

  • Media

  • Federal, State, Local Government

  • DOD

  • 53 WRS

  • State EMA’s

  • WMO RA-IV

  • Mariners

  • Private Sector


Tropical cyclones key products services

Tropical CyclonesKey Products/Services


Tropical cyclones s t roadmap

Tropical CyclonesS & T Roadmap

  • (Insert Spreadsheet)


  • Login