Demography and Life Expectancy - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demography and life expectancy l.jpg
Download
1 / 52

Demography and Life Expectancy. J. Hughes 2007 . Definitions. Gerontology: the study of the aging process (biological, sociological, and historical). Geriatrics: the branch of medicine that deals with health care for the elderly. Demography: the statistical study of human populations.

Related searches for Demography and Life Expectancy

I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.

Download Presentation

Demography and Life Expectancy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Demography and life expectancy l.jpg

Demography and Life Expectancy

J. Hughes

2007


Definitions l.jpg

Definitions

  • Gerontology: the study of the aging process (biological, sociological, and historical).

  • Geriatrics: the branch of medicine that deals with health care for the elderly.

  • Demography: the statistical study of human populations.


Fertility definitions l.jpg

Fertility: Definitions

  • Crude birth rate: the annual number of live births per thousand people

  • General fertility rate: the annual number of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44).

  • Age-specific fertility rate: the annual number of live births per 1000 women in particular age groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.)

  • Total fertility rate: the number of live births per woman completing her reproductive life if her childbearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility rates


Fertility in every developed country has fallen beneath the 2 1 replacement rate l.jpg

Fertility in every developed country has fallen beneath the 2.1 “replacement rate.”

2.1


Total fertility rates europe and north america 1950 2000 l.jpg

Total Fertility Rates – Europe and North America 1950-2000

____________________

Source:United Nations


Birth rates by region in 2002 l.jpg

Birth Rates by Region in 2002


Contraception and fertility l.jpg

Contraception and Fertility


Total fertility rates asian countries 1950 2000 l.jpg

Total Fertility Rates – Asian Countries 1950-2000

In chart minimum value in y axis is 0 and crosses at 0. 5

In PowerPoint a white fill box has been used to blank out the 0

____________________

Source:United Nations


European fertility rates 2001 l.jpg

European Fertility Rates - 2001

____________________

Source:GAD


Total fertility rates iran turkey brazil 1950 2020 l.jpg

Total Fertility Rates – Iran, Turkey, Brazil, 1950-2020

In chart minimum value in y axis is 0 and crosses at 0. 5

In PowerPoint a white fill box has been used to blank out the 0

1950 and 2020 are text boxes in PowerPoint with a white fill

1950

2020

-55

-65

-75

-85

-95

-05

-15

-25

____________________

Source:United Nations


Mortality definitions l.jpg

Mortality: Definitions

  • Crude death rate: the annual number of deaths per 1000 people

  • Infant mortality rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per thousand live births


Death rates in us cdc 2007 l.jpg

Death rates in US (CDC 2007)


Causes of death in us cdc 2007 l.jpg

Causes of Death in US (CDC 2007)


Mortality rate increases with age l.jpg

Mortality rate increases with age


Log mortality is linear l.jpg

Log mortality is linear

Mortality increases exponentially!


Definition life expectancy l.jpg

Definition: Life expectancy

  • Life expectancy: the number of years which an individual at a given age can expect to live at present mortality rates

  • For example:

    • Mean lifespan of US females: 79 years.

    • Expected ls of US females 20 yrs old: 83 yrs.

    • Expected ls of US females 85 yrs old: 91 yrs

    • Expected ls of US females 90 yrs old: 94 yrs.

  • Life expectancy at birth = mean lifespan

  • At older ages life expectancy > mean lifespan

  • Mean Longevity: average longevity of a population. Sum of ages at death / # of individuals.

  • Maximum longevity: age at death of the longest-lived number of a population.


Life expectancy and infant mortality throughout human history l.jpg

Life expectancy and infant mortality throughout human history

Life expectancyInfant mortality rate

at birth (years)(per 1000 live births)

Prehistoric20-35200-300

Sweden, 1750s37210

India, 1880s25230

U. S., 190048133

France, 19506652

Japan, 1996804


Historical life expectancy l.jpg

Historical Life Expectancy


Survival curves since stone age l.jpg

Survival curves since Stone Age


Infant mortality by region in 2002 l.jpg

Infant Mortality by Region in 2002


Human lifespan demographics l.jpg

Human lifespan demographics.


Human lifespan demographics22 l.jpg

Human lifespan demographics.


Human lifespan l.jpg

Human lifespan

  • Mean Longevity in the US:

    • Males, 75 yrs.

    • Females, 80 yrs.

  • Maximum longevity (verified):

    • Jeanne Clament who died in 1997 at age 122


Life spans in the developed countries have risen dramatically l.jpg

Life spans in the developed countries have risen dramatically.


Life expectancy by age groups and gender 2007 cdc report l.jpg

Life expectancy by age groups and gender (2007 CDC report)


Demographic transition l.jpg

Demographic Transition

  • Increasing Longevity

  • Declining Fertility

  • Baby Boom Cohort

  • Stabilization


Life expectancy at birth 1 male world uk l.jpg

Life Expectancy at Birth(1) – Male – World & UK

____________________

Source:GAD for UK; United Nations for World

Note:These are “Period” Life expectations, which actually underestimate the expected life span of a baby born in the year specified, but which are easier to calculate than the correct “cohort” figures and therefore frequently used in international comparisons. See footnote x in lecture text for explanation


Life expectancy at 60 1 male uk france l.jpg

Life Expectancy at 60(1) – Male – UK & France

____________________

Source:Eurostat demographic year book; GAD for UK

Note:On “Period” basis


Squaring the survival curve l.jpg

Squaring the survival curve


Survival curves for u s population 1900 to 2002 l.jpg

100

2002

1950

80

1900

60

Percent Surviving

40

20

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Age

Survival Curves for U.S. Population, 1900 to 2002

Source: Arias E. United States Life Tables, 2002. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol. 53, no. 6.  Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2004. 


Life expectancy at birth l.jpg

82

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66

64

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Life expectancy at birth

Trend in life expectancy (both sexes)

since 1965 in industrialised countries

Source: France: Vallin And Meslé 2001; Russia: Meslé et al. 1998; Ukraine: Meslé amd Vallin, in press; other coutnries: various statistical and demographic yearbooks. This chart is in Demographic Research – Special Collection 2: Article 2 , Convergences and divergences in mortality. A new approach to health transition, by Jacques Vallin and France Meslé, April 16, 2004


Increase in average life expectancy in years in some countries 1950 1995 total mf l.jpg

Increase in Average Life Expectancy in Years in Some Countries, 1950-1995, Total (MF)

Developed CountriesDeveloping Countries

Japan 15China30

Italy11Turkey24

France10India22

United Kingdom7Egypt19

USA7 Kenya18

Sweden 6.1 Brazil15

Argentina9


Male life expectancy at 65 developed countries l.jpg

MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT 65

COUNTRY

1962

2002

Increase

Netherlands

1.71

13.93

15.64

Denmark

1.86

13.51

15.37

Norway

2.03

14.18

16.21

Sweden

3.18

13.7

16.88

Belgium

3.4

12.46

15.86

Canada

3.53

13.64

17.17

US

3.64

12.92

16.56

Italy

4.02

12.9

16.92

New Zealand

4.18

12.71

16.89

Austria

4.26

11.99

16.25

UK

4.41

11.85

16.26

France

4.52

12.54

17.06

Finland

4.61

11.16

15.77

Switzerland

4.72

12.77

17.49

Australia

5.14

12.44

17.58

Japan

6.43

11.55

17.98

Average

3.85

12.77

16.62

Male Life Expectancy at 65 Developed Countries

Data is from the Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org (data downloaded on February 2007).


Female life expectancy at 65 developed countries l.jpg

Female Life Expectancy at 65 Developed Countries

Data is from the Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org (data downloaded on February 2007).


Probability of 50 year old living to 90 1900 to 2002 by gender l.jpg

30

26.6

25

20

15.2

Men

15

Percent

Women

9.6

10

5.0

3.8

5

2.7

0

1900

1950

2002

Source: Computed from U.S. life tables in: Arias E. United States life tables, 2002. National vital statistics reports; vol. 53, no. 6. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for health Statistics, 2004.

Probability of 50 year old living to 90, 1900 to 2002, by Gender


Life expectancy at birth by sex france 1806 1997 by gender l.jpg

Life expectancy at birth by sex, France 1806-1997 by Gender


Probable causes for longevity in favor of women l.jpg

Probable causes for longevity in favor of women:

  • Genetic (XX vs. XY) or Environmental (geography, country, income)

  • Other causes:

    Lesser life stress in females

    Less smoking

    Protective action of estrogens?

    Lesser accumulation of mDNA deletions/mutations with better protection against oxidative damage

    Others?

    Implication for prevention and treatment


Proportion of population aged 0 14 versus 65 in italy l.jpg

Proportion of population aged 0-14 versus 65+ (In Italy)


From pop pyramids to pop columns l.jpg

From Pop Pyramids to Pop Columns

B

B

A

A

Age Group

100 +

95 - 99

90 - 94

85 - 89

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5 - 9

0 - 4


Italy s population structure 1970 2050 l.jpg

Age Band

80-100

60-80

40-60

20-40

0-20

1970

2000

2050

Italy’s Population Structure 1970-2050

Millions

____________________

Source:U.N. Medium variant for 2050 projection


Dependency ratio dynamics l.jpg

Dependency Ratio Dynamics


Dependency ratio forecasts 2000 2050 l.jpg

Dependency Ratio Forecasts 2000-2050

Ratio of 20-64 Year Olds to 65+

____________________

Source:UN Medium Variant


Demographic change in uk and china un medium variant l.jpg

60+

15-59

0-15 Years

Demographic Change in UK and China – UN Medium Variant

% Population by Age Band

2000

2050

UK

China

____________________

Source: OECD Historical Statistics: OECD Economic Outlook


Dependency ratio dynamics under different demographic challenges l.jpg

Dependency Ratio Dynamics under Different Demographic Challenges


Dependency ratio dynamics45 l.jpg

Dependency Ratio Dynamics


Key choices l.jpg

Key Choices

  • Accept the deterioration of dependency ratios

    • Poorer pensioners

    • Higher taxes

    • Higher savings

  • Offset the deterioration of dependency ratios

    • Immigration

    • Higher birth rate

    • Later retirement ages

    • Healthy longevity (Longevity Dividend)


  • Rising longevity fixed retirement age and stable support ratios l.jpg

    Rising Longevity, Fixed Retirement Age and Stable Support Ratios

    RetirementAge

    Initial Structure

    PlusRising Longevity

    Plus Immigration to Keep Support Ratio Constant


    Dependency ratio dynamics48 l.jpg

    Dependency Ratio Dynamics


    Population density us and europe l.jpg

    Population Density – US and Europe

    000s per Sq.km: 2000

    ____________________

    Source:United Nations, Statistical Abstract of the US 2002


    Europe and its neighbours population l.jpg

    Europe and Its Neighbours – Population

    Millions

    Russia,Ukraine & Belarus

    European Union

    EasternEurope

    WesternAsia*

    Africa

    ____________________

    Source:UN Medium Variant

    * Note:UN definition plus Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran


    Demographics and geopolitical weight l.jpg

    Demographics and Geopolitical Weight


    Immigration pros and cons l.jpg

    Immigration: Pros and Cons

    Arguments for:

    Arguments

    against:

    Argument of

    inevitability:

    • - Support ratio improvement

    • Big population gives geopolitical weight.

    • Cultural diversity and economic vitality

    • - Population density: environmental & economic consequences

    • - Integration challenge

    • - Only a temporary solution if all the world is successful: shiftingthe burden of adjustment to a stable population onto our grandchildren but at a higher population density

    • - It is going to happen anyway, so let’s ensure the integration is successful


  • Login