Demography and life expectancy
Download
1 / 52

Demography and Life Expectancy - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 655 Views
  • Updated On :

Demography and Life Expectancy. J. Hughes 2007 . Definitions. Gerontology: the study of the aging process (biological, sociological, and historical). Geriatrics: the branch of medicine that deals with health care for the elderly. Demography: the statistical study of human populations.

Related searches for Demography and Life Expectancy

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Demography and Life Expectancy' - richard_edik


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

Definitions l.jpg
Definitions

  • Gerontology: the study of the aging process (biological, sociological, and historical).

  • Geriatrics: the branch of medicine that deals with health care for the elderly.

  • Demography: the statistical study of human populations.


Fertility definitions l.jpg
Fertility: Definitions

  • Crude birth rate: the annual number of live births per thousand people

  • General fertility rate: the annual number of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44).

  • Age-specific fertility rate: the annual number of live births per 1000 women in particular age groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.)

  • Total fertility rate: the number of live births per woman completing her reproductive life if her childbearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility rates



Total fertility rates europe and north america 1950 2000 l.jpg
Total Fertility Rates – Europe and North America 1950-2000 2.1 “replacement rate.”

____________________

Source: United Nations


Birth rates by region in 2002 l.jpg
Birth Rates by Region in 2002 2.1 “replacement rate.”


Contraception and fertility l.jpg
Contraception and Fertility 2.1 “replacement rate.”


Total fertility rates asian countries 1950 2000 l.jpg
Total Fertility Rates – Asian Countries 1950-2000 2.1 “replacement rate.”

In chart minimum value in y axis is 0 and crosses at 0. 5

In PowerPoint a white fill box has been used to blank out the 0

____________________

Source: United Nations


European fertility rates 2001 l.jpg
European Fertility Rates - 2001 2.1 “replacement rate.”

____________________

Source: GAD


Total fertility rates iran turkey brazil 1950 2020 l.jpg
Total Fertility Rates – Iran, Turkey, Brazil, 1950-2020 2.1 “replacement rate.”

In chart minimum value in y axis is 0 and crosses at 0. 5

In PowerPoint a white fill box has been used to blank out the 0

1950 and 2020 are text boxes in PowerPoint with a white fill

1950

2020

-55

-65

-75

-85

-95

-05

-15

-25

____________________

Source: United Nations


Mortality definitions l.jpg
Mortality: Definitions 2.1 “replacement rate.”

  • Crude death rate: the annual number of deaths per 1000 people

  • Infant mortality rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per thousand live births


Death rates in us cdc 2007 l.jpg
Death rates in US (CDC 2007) 2.1 “replacement rate.”


Causes of death in us cdc 2007 l.jpg
Causes of Death in US (CDC 2007) 2.1 “replacement rate.”


Mortality rate increases with age l.jpg
Mortality rate increases with age 2.1 “replacement rate.”


Log mortality is linear l.jpg
Log mortality is linear 2.1 “replacement rate.”

Mortality increases exponentially!


Definition life expectancy l.jpg
Definition: Life expectancy 2.1 “replacement rate.”

  • Life expectancy: the number of years which an individual at a given age can expect to live at present mortality rates

  • For example:

    • Mean lifespan of US females: 79 years.

    • Expected ls of US females 20 yrs old: 83 yrs.

    • Expected ls of US females 85 yrs old: 91 yrs

    • Expected ls of US females 90 yrs old: 94 yrs.

  • Life expectancy at birth = mean lifespan

  • At older ages life expectancy > mean lifespan

  • Mean Longevity: average longevity of a population. Sum of ages at death / # of individuals.

  • Maximum longevity: age at death of the longest-lived number of a population.


Life expectancy and infant mortality throughout human history l.jpg
Life expectancy and infant mortality throughout human history

Life expectancyInfant mortality rate

at birth (years)(per 1000 live births)

Prehistoric 20-35200-300

Sweden, 1750s 37 210

India, 1880s 25230

U. S., 1900 48133

France, 1950 6652

Japan, 1996 804







Human lifespan l.jpg
Human lifespan history

  • Mean Longevity in the US:

    • Males, 75 yrs.

    • Females, 80 yrs.

  • Maximum longevity (verified):

    • Jeanne Clament who died in 1997 at age 122




Demographic transition l.jpg
Demographic Transition dramatically.

  • Increasing Longevity

  • Declining Fertility

  • Baby Boom Cohort

  • Stabilization


Life expectancy at birth 1 male world uk l.jpg
Life Expectancy at Birth dramatically.(1) – Male – World & UK

____________________

Source: GAD for UK; United Nations for World

Note: These are “Period” Life expectations, which actually underestimate the expected life span of a baby born in the year specified, but which are easier to calculate than the correct “cohort” figures and therefore frequently used in international comparisons. See footnote x in lecture text for explanation


Life expectancy at 60 1 male uk france l.jpg
Life Expectancy at 60 dramatically.(1) – Male – UK & France

____________________

Source: Eurostat demographic year book; GAD for UK

Note: On “Period” basis



Survival curves for u s population 1900 to 2002 l.jpg

100 dramatically.

2002

1950

80

1900

60

Percent Surviving

40

20

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Age

Survival Curves for U.S. Population, 1900 to 2002

Source: Arias E. United States Life Tables, 2002. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol. 53, no. 6.  Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2004. 


Life expectancy at birth l.jpg

82 dramatically.

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66

64

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Life expectancy at birth

Trend in life expectancy (both sexes)

since 1965 in industrialised countries

Source: France: Vallin And Meslé 2001; Russia: Meslé et al. 1998; Ukraine: Meslé amd Vallin, in press; other coutnries: various statistical and demographic yearbooks. This chart is in Demographic Research – Special Collection 2: Article 2 , Convergences and divergences in mortality. A new approach to health transition, by Jacques Vallin and France Meslé, April 16, 2004


Increase in average life expectancy in years in some countries 1950 1995 total mf l.jpg
Increase in Average Life Expectancy in Years dramatically. in Some Countries, 1950-1995, Total (MF)

Developed Countries Developing Countries

Japan 15 China 30

Italy 11 Turkey 24

France 10 India 22

United Kingdom 7 Egypt 19

USA 7 Kenya 18

Sweden 6.1 Brazil 15

Argentina 9


Male life expectancy at 65 developed countries l.jpg

MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT 65 dramatically.

COUNTRY

1962

2002

Increase

Netherlands

1.71

13.93

15.64

Denmark

1.86

13.51

15.37

Norway

2.03

14.18

16.21

Sweden

3.18

13.7

16.88

Belgium

3.4

12.46

15.86

Canada

3.53

13.64

17.17

US

3.64

12.92

16.56

Italy

4.02

12.9

16.92

New Zealand

4.18

12.71

16.89

Austria

4.26

11.99

16.25

UK

4.41

11.85

16.26

France

4.52

12.54

17.06

Finland

4.61

11.16

15.77

Switzerland

4.72

12.77

17.49

Australia

5.14

12.44

17.58

Japan

6.43

11.55

17.98

Average

3.85

12.77

16.62

Male Life Expectancy at 65 Developed Countries

Data is from the Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org (data downloaded on February 2007).


Female life expectancy at 65 developed countries l.jpg
Female Life Expectancy at 65 Developed Countries dramatically.

Data is from the Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org (data downloaded on February 2007).


Probability of 50 year old living to 90 1900 to 2002 by gender l.jpg

30 dramatically.

26.6

25

20

15.2

Men

15

Percent

Women

9.6

10

5.0

3.8

5

2.7

0

1900

1950

2002

Source: Computed from U.S. life tables in: Arias E. United States life tables, 2002. National vital statistics reports; vol. 53, no. 6. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for health Statistics, 2004.

Probability of 50 year old living to 90, 1900 to 2002, by Gender



Probable causes for longevity in favor of women l.jpg
Probable causes for longevity in favor of women: dramatically.

  • Genetic (XX vs. XY) or Environmental (geography, country, income)

  • Other causes:

    Lesser life stress in females

    Less smoking

    Protective action of estrogens?

    Lesser accumulation of mDNA deletions/mutations with better protection against oxidative damage

    Others?

    Implication for prevention and treatment



From pop pyramids to pop columns l.jpg
From Pop Pyramids to Pop Columns dramatically.

B

B

A

A

Age Group

100 +

95 - 99

90 - 94

85 - 89

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5 - 9

0 - 4


Italy s population structure 1970 2050 l.jpg

Age Band dramatically.

80-100

60-80

40-60

20-40

0-20

1970

2000

2050

Italy’s Population Structure 1970-2050

Millions

____________________

Source: U.N. Medium variant for 2050 projection



Dependency ratio forecasts 2000 2050 l.jpg
Dependency Ratio Forecasts 2000-2050 dramatically.

Ratio of 20-64 Year Olds to 65+

____________________

Source: UN Medium Variant


Demographic change in uk and china un medium variant l.jpg

60+ dramatically.

15-59

0-15 Years

Demographic Change in UK and China – UN Medium Variant

% Population by Age Band

2000

2050

UK

China

____________________

Source: OECD Historical Statistics: OECD Economic Outlook




Key choices l.jpg
Key Choices Challenges

  • Accept the deterioration of dependency ratios

    • Poorer pensioners

    • Higher taxes

    • Higher savings

  • Offset the deterioration of dependency ratios

    • Immigration

    • Higher birth rate

    • Later retirement ages

    • Healthy longevity (Longevity Dividend)


  • Rising longevity fixed retirement age and stable support ratios l.jpg
    Rising Longevity, Fixed Retirement Age and Stable Support Ratios

    RetirementAge

    Initial Structure

    PlusRising Longevity

    Plus Immigration to Keep Support Ratio Constant



    Population density us and europe l.jpg
    Population Density – US and Europe Ratios

    000s per Sq.km: 2000

    ____________________

    Source: United Nations, Statistical Abstract of the US 2002


    Europe and its neighbours population l.jpg
    Europe and Its Neighbours – Population Ratios

    Millions

    Russia,Ukraine & Belarus

    European Union

    EasternEurope

    WesternAsia*

    Africa

    ____________________

    Source: UN Medium Variant

    * Note: UN definition plus Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran



    Immigration pros and cons l.jpg
    Immigration: Pros and Cons Ratios

    Arguments for:

    Arguments

    against:

    Argument of

    inevitability:

    • - Support ratio improvement

    • Big population gives geopolitical weight.

    • Cultural diversity and economic vitality

    • - Population density: environmental & economic consequences

    • - Integration challenge

    • - Only a temporary solution if all the world is successful: shifting the burden of adjustment to a stable population onto our grandchildren but at a higher population density

    • - It is going to happen anyway, so let’s ensure the integration is successful


    ad