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Demography and Life Expectancy. J. Hughes 2007 . Definitions. Gerontology: the study of the aging process (biological, sociological, and historical). Geriatrics: the branch of medicine that deals with health care for the elderly. Demography: the statistical study of human populations.

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definitions
Definitions
  • Gerontology: the study of the aging process (biological, sociological, and historical).
  • Geriatrics: the branch of medicine that deals with health care for the elderly.
  • Demography: the statistical study of human populations.
fertility definitions
Fertility: Definitions
  • Crude birth rate: the annual number of live births per thousand people
  • General fertility rate: the annual number of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44).
  • Age-specific fertility rate: the annual number of live births per 1000 women in particular age groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.)
  • Total fertility rate: the number of live births per woman completing her reproductive life if her childbearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility rates
total fertility rates europe and north america 1950 2000
Total Fertility Rates – Europe and North America 1950-2000

____________________

Source: United Nations

total fertility rates asian countries 1950 2000
Total Fertility Rates – Asian Countries 1950-2000

In chart minimum value in y axis is 0 and crosses at 0. 5

In PowerPoint a white fill box has been used to blank out the 0

____________________

Source: United Nations

european fertility rates 2001
European Fertility Rates - 2001

____________________

Source: GAD

total fertility rates iran turkey brazil 1950 2020
Total Fertility Rates – Iran, Turkey, Brazil, 1950-2020

In chart minimum value in y axis is 0 and crosses at 0. 5

In PowerPoint a white fill box has been used to blank out the 0

1950 and 2020 are text boxes in PowerPoint with a white fill

1950

2020

-55

-65

-75

-85

-95

-05

-15

-25

____________________

Source: United Nations

mortality definitions
Mortality: Definitions
  • Crude death rate: the annual number of deaths per 1000 people
  • Infant mortality rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per thousand live births
log mortality is linear
Log mortality is linear

Mortality increases exponentially!

definition life expectancy
Definition: Life expectancy
  • Life expectancy: the number of years which an individual at a given age can expect to live at present mortality rates
  • For example:
    • Mean lifespan of US females: 79 years.
    • Expected ls of US females 20 yrs old: 83 yrs.
    • Expected ls of US females 85 yrs old: 91 yrs
    • Expected ls of US females 90 yrs old: 94 yrs.
  • Life expectancy at birth = mean lifespan
  • At older ages life expectancy > mean lifespan
  • Mean Longevity: average longevity of a population. Sum of ages at death / # of individuals.
  • Maximum longevity: age at death of the longest-lived number of a population.
life expectancy and infant mortality throughout human history
Life expectancy and infant mortality throughout human history

Life expectancyInfant mortality rate

at birth (years)(per 1000 live births)

Prehistoric 20-35200-300

Sweden, 1750s 37 210

India, 1880s 25230

U. S., 1900 48133

France, 1950 6652

Japan, 1996 804

human lifespan
Human lifespan
  • Mean Longevity in the US:
    • Males, 75 yrs.
    • Females, 80 yrs.
  • Maximum longevity (verified):
    • Jeanne Clament who died in 1997 at age 122
demographic transition
Demographic Transition
  • Increasing Longevity
  • Declining Fertility
  • Baby Boom Cohort
  • Stabilization
life expectancy at birth 1 male world uk
Life Expectancy at Birth(1) – Male – World & UK

____________________

Source: GAD for UK; United Nations for World

Note: These are “Period” Life expectations, which actually underestimate the expected life span of a baby born in the year specified, but which are easier to calculate than the correct “cohort” figures and therefore frequently used in international comparisons. See footnote x in lecture text for explanation

life expectancy at 60 1 male uk france
Life Expectancy at 60(1) – Male – UK & France

____________________

Source: Eurostat demographic year book; GAD for UK

Note: On “Period” basis

survival curves for u s population 1900 to 2002

100

2002

1950

80

1900

60

Percent Surviving

40

20

0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Age

Survival Curves for U.S. Population, 1900 to 2002

Source: Arias E. United States Life Tables, 2002. National Vital Statistics Reports; vol. 53, no. 6.  Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics, 2004. 

life expectancy at birth

82

80

78

76

74

72

70

68

66

64

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

Life expectancy at birth

Trend in life expectancy (both sexes)

since 1965 in industrialised countries

Source: France: Vallin And Meslé 2001; Russia: Meslé et al. 1998; Ukraine: Meslé amd Vallin, in press; other coutnries: various statistical and demographic yearbooks. This chart is in Demographic Research – Special Collection 2: Article 2 , Convergences and divergences in mortality. A new approach to health transition, by Jacques Vallin and France Meslé, April 16, 2004

increase in average life expectancy in years in some countries 1950 1995 total mf
Increase in Average Life Expectancy in Years in Some Countries, 1950-1995, Total (MF)

Developed Countries Developing Countries

Japan 15 China 30

Italy 11 Turkey 24

France 10 India 22

United Kingdom 7 Egypt 19

USA 7 Kenya 18

Sweden 6.1 Brazil 15

Argentina 9

male life expectancy at 65 developed countries

MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT 65

COUNTRY

1962

2002

Increase

Netherlands

1.71

13.93

15.64

Denmark

1.86

13.51

15.37

Norway

2.03

14.18

16.21

Sweden

3.18

13.7

16.88

Belgium

3.4

12.46

15.86

Canada

3.53

13.64

17.17

US

3.64

12.92

16.56

Italy

4.02

12.9

16.92

New Zealand

4.18

12.71

16.89

Austria

4.26

11.99

16.25

UK

4.41

11.85

16.26

France

4.52

12.54

17.06

Finland

4.61

11.16

15.77

Switzerland

4.72

12.77

17.49

Australia

5.14

12.44

17.58

Japan

6.43

11.55

17.98

Average

3.85

12.77

16.62

Male Life Expectancy at 65 Developed Countries

Data is from the Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org (data downloaded on February 2007).

female life expectancy at 65 developed countries
Female Life Expectancy at 65 Developed Countries

Data is from the Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). Available at www.mortality.org (data downloaded on February 2007).

probability of 50 year old living to 90 1900 to 2002 by gender

30

26.6

25

20

15.2

Men

15

Percent

Women

9.6

10

5.0

3.8

5

2.7

0

1900

1950

2002

Source: Computed from U.S. life tables in: Arias E. United States life tables, 2002. National vital statistics reports; vol. 53, no. 6. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for health Statistics, 2004.

Probability of 50 year old living to 90, 1900 to 2002, by Gender
probable causes for longevity in favor of women
Probable causes for longevity in favor of women:
  • Genetic (XX vs. XY) or Environmental (geography, country, income)
  • Other causes:

Lesser life stress in females

Less smoking

Protective action of estrogens?

Lesser accumulation of mDNA deletions/mutations with better protection against oxidative damage

Others?

Implication for prevention and treatment

from pop pyramids to pop columns
From Pop Pyramids to Pop Columns

B

B

A

A

Age Group

100 +

95 - 99

90 - 94

85 - 89

80 - 84

75 - 79

70 - 74

65 - 69

60 - 64

55 - 59

50 - 54

45 - 49

40 - 44

35 - 39

30 - 34

25 - 29

20 - 24

15 - 19

10 - 14

5 - 9

0 - 4

italy s population structure 1970 2050
Age Band

80-100

60-80

40-60

20-40

0-20

1970

2000

2050

Italy’s Population Structure 1970-2050

Millions

____________________

Source: U.N. Medium variant for 2050 projection

dependency ratio forecasts 2000 2050
Dependency Ratio Forecasts 2000-2050

Ratio of 20-64 Year Olds to 65+

____________________

Source: UN Medium Variant

demographic change in uk and china un medium variant

60+

15-59

0-15 Years

Demographic Change in UK and China – UN Medium Variant

% Population by Age Band

2000

2050

UK

China

____________________

Source: OECD Historical Statistics: OECD Economic Outlook

key choices
Key Choices
  • Accept the deterioration of dependency ratios
        • Poorer pensioners
        • Higher taxes
        • Higher savings
  • Offset the deterioration of dependency ratios
        • Immigration
        • Higher birth rate
        • Later retirement ages
        • Healthy longevity (Longevity Dividend)
rising longevity fixed retirement age and stable support ratios
Rising Longevity, Fixed Retirement Age and Stable Support Ratios

RetirementAge

Initial Structure

PlusRising Longevity

Plus Immigration to Keep Support Ratio Constant

population density us and europe
Population Density – US and Europe

000s per Sq.km: 2000

____________________

Source: United Nations, Statistical Abstract of the US 2002

europe and its neighbours population
Europe and Its Neighbours – Population

Millions

Russia,Ukraine & Belarus

European Union

EasternEurope

WesternAsia*

Africa

____________________

Source: UN Medium Variant

* Note: UN definition plus Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran

immigration pros and cons
Immigration: Pros and Cons

Arguments for:

Arguments

against:

Argument of

inevitability:

  • - Support ratio improvement
  • Big population gives geopolitical weight.
  • Cultural diversity and economic vitality
  • - Population density: environmental & economic consequences
  • - Integration challenge
  • - Only a temporary solution if all the world is successful: shifting the burden of adjustment to a stable population onto our grandchildren but at a higher population density
  • - It is going to happen anyway, so let’s ensure the integration is successful
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