Real time HVAC monitoring : BIG DATA SOLVES RETROFIT RISK

1. Real time HVAC monitoring : BIG DATA SOLVES RETROFIT RISK Howard Chong Assistant Professor of Economics and Sustainability CORNELL UNIVERSITY – School of Hotel Administration Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

2. About ME • 2002 BS - EECS/MSE from Berkeley • Lucky to send a chance email to Randy Katz • 2011 PhD – Economics Berkeley Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

3. Goals Explore collaboration, exchange information • OFFER how I think I can help. • GET connected to smart people working on the same problems. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

4. The big question Why are houses not being retrofitted? • Engineers suggest that this can be done. • Subsidies pay for a large portion of the work. • BUT, less than 5% of people sign up for free retrofits. • BUT, many low income households don’t sign up for retrofits. (<20% participation, Wolfram & Fowlie [UCB]) Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

5. HOUSING brainstorm • In terms of cold/hot comfort • The house you grew up in • The nicest house you’ve been in (grandparents?) • Your college apartment • The worst house you’ve been in I live in an “renovated” 1890 house. The average American household spends $2000/yr with large variation. My propane bill this month was $740. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

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7. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

8. California Building Codes – There is still lots of retrofit opportunity, despite “strong” building codes Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

9. Why?(Top 10 Reasons Why There Is So Much Opportunity) Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

10. 2. Prescriptive Codes - it is hard to “prescribe” quality and performance Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

11. 5. HVAC contractor training all comes from the HVAC equipment salesman or manufacturer Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

12. 8. Resistance to change Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

13. Build Quality in the USA • I talked to an American in the airport who told me about a bad builder. With each tract home project, he starts a new incorporated company. There are a large number of defects (that cannot be seen until many years later). • In one case, a commercial real estate lawyer looked into filing a lawsuit. However, this builder closes each company after houses are sold. The lawyer found it “uneconomical” to sue. Though the builder has some legal liability, the culture is that there are no protections. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

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16. retrofits When houses aren’t performing as they should and it is economical to retrofit them, the homeowner has the right incentives to pay to fix them. More than 70% of the homes in the US were built before 1980. Most older homes need retrofits. Some newer ones (because our build quality is bad) may also need retrofits. Why aren’t people retrofitting their houses? Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

17. Stakeholders / Issues • Money Savings • Comfort • Contractors • Risk / Guarantees? • Effort / Convenience • Government • Monitoring? BRAINSTORM Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

18. The key issue: risk Current system: It takes about $200-$500 and 4 hours of time to assess one’s house. Afterwards, one is typically offered some retrofit options costing $5000-$10000 that can save up to 30% per year. What is wrong with this? Where is the risk? (Median US household income is about $50K.) Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

19. Low efficiency High energy High efficiency Low Energy There is heterogeneity in existing efficiency. Where are the old buildings? What is the observed retrofit level? Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

20. Economists need engineers, engineers need economists. Both need to work together to influence policy/politicians. Impact 100% Engineering 100% Economics Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

21. For IMPACT, what stakeholders need to be engaged • Stakeholders: Builders. Energy Auditors. Banks. Financing. Customers. Engineers tend to think in terms of controllable components: • Sensors • Actuators • Control loops • Model Predictive Control • But stakeholders are the biggest “bugs” or “kinks” in the system. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

22. Low efficiency High energy High efficiency Low Energy • We have not solved the problem as consumers interacting with builders/retrofiters actually see it. • The builders are in the best position to understand the risk, but they are not able to completely eliminatethe risk. (non-engineers, limited budgets. Looking for the $1 solution, not the $10000 solution) Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

23. BIG DATA Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

24. Graphs of energy data Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

25. Decay curves Temp Setting On/Off “Away” Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

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27. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

28. Solving market barriers to retrofits When houses aren’t performing as they should and it is economical to retrofit them, the homeowner has the right incentives to pay to fix them. “Big Data” approaches can (1) make it easier to identify which houses need to get a costly and potentially time-wasting retrofit, (2) solve the risk component of retrofit quality. “Pay for performance” give people a guarantee, much like most other (successful) consumer experiences. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

29. Engin Problems • Simple RC (time constant) characterization of thermal decay a f(constant outdoor temp) • RC characterization with varying outdoor temp. (coupling?) • Humidity characterization with varying outdoor temp. • Air leakage characterization from humidity profile. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

30. DATA solutions • Where is the temperature setpoint? What is the distribution f({24hr}) • Behavior separated from the building. • RC/thermal decay daytime vs nighttime  solar gain • Thermal gains daytime vsnightime & by location / orientation  solar gain and impact of design Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

31. Continuing Diagnostics • Compare (and write contracts) on as-built performance vs as designed performance • AFUE monitoring. (Check engine for a house) • Other? Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

32. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

33. How I Got Here • Parents are immigrants, poor background, American Dream story. • 2002 BS Double major Engineering (EECS / Mat Sci) • 2002-2004 “working”, included 1 day on a garbage truck • 2011 PhD Ag and Resource Economics I’m an Odd Animal. Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014

34. Thank youcomments appreciated hc757@cornell.edu Chong – Berkeley SDB presentation - Feb 2014