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Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

Bandung Institute of Technology. Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta. Dr. Armi Susandi, MT. National Council on Climate Change Republic of Indonesia. OUTLINE. Background Objective Basic Concept Data and Methodology Result Analysis Conclusions. Background.

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Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta

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  1. Bandung Institute of Technology Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta Dr. Armi Susandi, MT. National Council on Climate Change Republic of Indonesia

  2. OUTLINE • Background • Objective • Basic Concept • Data and Methodology • Result • Analysis • Conclusions

  3. Background • Global climate change causes many areas in Indonesia to be vulnerable on its impacts. • Jakarta is projected to be a vulnerable region with high magnitude as compared with the other Indonesia regions. • Up to recent, disaster frequently occurred in Jakarta as impact of pattern change in rainfall.

  4. Objective • Building model to make map of vulnerable index to climate change impacts in Jakarta. • Performing analysis regarding to Jakarta vulnerable index to find the solution as adaptation planning to climate change.

  5. Basic Concept CLIMATE CHANGE Including Variability Human Interference Exposure Initial Impacts Of Effects VULNERABILITIES MITIGATION Of Climate Change via GHG Sources and Sinks IMPACTS Autonomous Adaptations Planned ADAPTATION To the Impacts and Vulnerability Residual or Net Impacts Policy Responses (IPCC, 2001)

  6. Components of Vulnerability Vulnerability ‘The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effect of climate change, including climate variability and extremes’ + - Potential Impacts PI ‘All impacts that may occur given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation’ Adaptive Capacity AC ‘The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with consequences’ + + Sensitivity S ‘The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. Exposure E ‘The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations’

  7. Data and Methodology • Data required: 1. Projection of rainfall, land use change, sea level rise, subsidence, and distribution of population. 2. Map of rivers, prosperity • Methodology: 1. Projection using Fast Fourier Transform and Least Square Non-Linear on variable parameters. 2. Overlay and analysis using GIS software (Geographical Information System)

  8. Flow of the Work Variable Parameters -1 Prediction Model Variable Parameters -4 Variable Parameters -2 Model Output Variable Parameters -5 Building Spatial Map Variable Parameters -3 Overlay Constant Parameters -2 Constant Parameters -1 Vulnerability Index Building map of climate change vulnerability

  9. Rainfall Variable Subsidence Variable Sea Level Rise Variable Land-use Change Variable Rivers Constant Prosperity Constant Population Distribution Variable Overlaying Various Types of Map

  10. Projection of Mean Rainfall in Wet Months over Jakarta

  11. 600 mm Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2010) (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  12. 600 mm Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2015) (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  13. 600 mm Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2020) (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  14. 600 mm Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2025) (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  15. 600 mm Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2030) (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  16. 600 mm Projection of Rainfall in Jakarta (Wet Months 2035) (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  17. Projection of Sea Level Rise at North of Jakarta

  18. 2010 Cilincing Tanjung Priok North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

  19. 2015 Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

  20. 2020 Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

  21. 2025 Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan Penjaringan North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

  22. 2030 Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan Penjaringan Soekarno-Hatta Airport North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

  23. 2035 Cilincing Koja Tanjung Priok Pademangan Penjaringan Soekarno-Hatta Airport North Source: Hadi, Susandi et al., 2007

  24. Subsidence in 1982 - 1991 (Hasanuddin, 2008)

  25. Subsidence in 1991 - 1997 (Hasanuddin, 2008)

  26. Population in Jakarta (1972) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

  27. Population in Jakarta (1983) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

  28. Population in Jakarta (1993) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

  29. Population in Jakarta (1998) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

  30. Population in Jakarta (2002) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

  31. Projection of Population in Jakarta (2010) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI Sum up of population: 8,981,200people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

  32. Projection of Population in Jakarta (2015) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI Sum up of population: 9,168,500 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

  33. Projection of Population in Jakarta (2020) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI Sum up of population: 9,262,600 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

  34. Projection of Population in Jakarta (2025) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI Sum up of population: 9,259,900 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

  35. Projection of Population in Jakarta (2030) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI Sum up of population: 9,533,550 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

  36. Projection of Population in Jakarta (2035) AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PEMUKIMAN RAWA, TAMBAK, LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI Sum up of population: 9,715,575 people Source: Bappenas, BPS, UNPF, 2005

  37. Map of Rivers in Jakarta (Hasanuddin, 2008)

  38. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Map of Prosperity in Jakarta Index of Prosperity (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  39. Result:“Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta”2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035

  40. Climate Change Vulnerability in Southeast Asia Flood Drought

  41. 1 Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 2010 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 50 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 20 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 30 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 0 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  42. 1 Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 2015 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 30 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 20 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 50 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 0 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  43. 1 Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 2020 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 0 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 20 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 40 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 40 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  44. 1 Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 2025 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 0 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 5 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 30 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 65 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 0 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  45. 1 Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 2030 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 0 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 0 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 10 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 70 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 20 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  46. 1 Map of Climate Change Vulnerability in Jakarta 2035 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability Percentage of Index Range: 0.0 – 0.2 = 0 % 0.2 – 0.4 = 0 % 0.4 – 0.6 = 5 % 0.6 – 0.8 = 20 % 0.8 – 1.0 = 75 % (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  47. Adaptation to Climate Change

  48. 1 From North Area Mangrove 30% of the distance 2010 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  49. 1 From North Area Mangrove 60 % of the distance 2015 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability (Susandi et. al, 2009)

  50. 1 From North Area Mangrove 100 % of the distance 2020 Index of Climate Change Vulnerability (Susandi et. al, 2009)

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