World Water Scenarios

1. World Water Scenarios Presentation byOlcay ÜnverProgram CoordinatorWilliam CosgroveProject ManagerWorld Water Scenarios ProjectWorld Future 2010Boston MA 10 July 2010 The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

2. World Water Scenarios • What is the current state of water resources in the world: challenges and opportunities? • What are the pressing water related issues people face today?  • What are the major projects directed by UN – World Water Assessment Program (WWAP) to deal with these issues? • Second Generation of World Water Scenarios The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

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5. Water Scarcity The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

6. Water Scarcity The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

7. Water Scarcity The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

8. Cereal deficits or surpluses The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

9. Cereal deficits or surpluses The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

10. Cereal deficits or surpluses The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

11. Water to sustain fragile ecosystems Water stress levels of major river basins (Map 6.3)

13. Pressures on the resource: Fundamental needs and rising living standards

14. Pressures on the resource: Fundamental needs and rising living standards Average national water footprint per capita, 1997-2001 (Map 7.3)

15. World Water Vision In 2025 we will be living in a world with a population of 7.5 billion people where everyone will have access to safe water supplies. Agriculture would produce enough food so that no one need go hungry. Reduced global consumption by industry will accompany substantially higher economic activity in the emerging and developing countries. Similar concern for freshwater and the environment will have reduced the volume of waste from human activity and led to the treatment of most solid and liquid wastes before their controlled release into the environment. The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

16. Achieving the Vision The Vision would be achieved through: • Recognition of the crisis and the need for action • Stakeholder representation in integrated water resource management • Full-cost pricing of water services for all human uses • More public funding for research and innovation • Increased cooperation in international water basins The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

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18. Global “Crises”

19. Water and the Global Energy Crisis Historical and projected energy demand and oil prices show steadily rising demand and rapidly rising prices (Figure 1.8)

20. Water and the Global Food Crisis Wheat and rice prices have risen sharply in recent years (Figure 1.9)

21. Water and Climate Change GDP growth tracks rainfall variability in Ethiopia (1983-2000) and Tanzania (1989-99) (Figure 5.2)

22. Mitigation deals with carbon, adaptation with water Climate change: processes, characteristics and threats (Figure 5.1)

23. Climate impacts are greatest in poor countries The costs of disasters as a share of GDP are much higher in poor countries than rich countries (Figure 1.2)

24. Lack of information and dataat a time when we need it more than ever to deal with increasing complexity Distribution of Global Runoff Data Centre streamflow gauges (Figure 13.1)

25. The donor community can incorporate water into the broader frameworks of development aid and focus assistance on areas where it is needed most.

26. Investing in water Water investment requires a holistic approach – links between pricing, financing and stakeholders (Figure 1.4)

27. Water for Sustainable Development

28. Sustainable development as the framework for water management US government investments in water infrastructure during 1930-96 yielded $6 in damages averted for each $1 invested (Figure 1.3)

29. Water and the MDGs The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

30. Opening the “water box” Decision-making affecting water (Figure 1.1)

31. What progress since 2000? Some Progress: • Importance of IWRM recognised at Johannesburg Summit 2002 • Significant number of countries with WRM plans, strategies and legislation • Globally on track to meet drinking water objectives of MDGs (with increased investment in sub-sector following Camdessus report) • Increased awareness and knowledge of groundwater stocks and quality among water managers • Industry increasingly aware of dependence on water, implementing water conservation and pollution reduction plans The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

32. What progress since 2000? • Some progress (cont.) • Approaches gathering data using satellite technology and modelling can facilitate monitoring trends • Community action often produces better results than government • Public contribution to decision-making using new information technology • Some less wealthy countries making better than average progress by establishing financially and politically autonomous, effective and efficient institutions The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

33. What progress since 2000? But as WWDR3 shows, not enough: • Not on track to meet household sanitation targets • Where there is household sanitation, frequently wastes discharged to environment without treatment • Global data mask lack of progress in many of poorest countries • MDGs do not reflect important role of water in meeting all of them, including poverty reduction through economic development • WRM strategies and legislation often not translated to action through institutional, financial and cultural change The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

34. What progress since 2000? But as WWDR3 shows, not enough (cont.) • Investment in water infrastructure continues to be inadequate and single-purpose in most cases • Abuse and uninformed use of groundwater continues • Leading actors from business and government often not involved in public consultation • When we need to know more about water resources and their uses we are collecting less data • Those knowledgeable about the impact on water of decisions in other sectors often not at the table when decisions are taken The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

35. A rapidly changing world poses threats, offers opportunities • Climate change is now a fact – and will continue • Water-related technology: • Continual refinement of GIS with ability for real-time monitoring of agricultural crops and water quality and quantity • Information technology permitting a global collective intelligence system, hopefully public, to facilitate knowledge management and decision-making • Nanotechnology to replace current water sensors, water purification and desalination • Biotechnology to grow food plants, biofuels and trees using saline or brackish water and to increase the yield, disease and drought resistance of crops • Seawater-based food and biomass, including algal production • Plant-based meat substitutes and (in vitro) cultured meat The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

36. A rapidly changing world poses threats, offers opportunities • Socio-economic and cultural changes • Human population now majority urban • Tight weave of village society being replaced by the anonymity of the city • Anonymity thrives in the workplace too (how many products are assembled from pieces produced in different countries by colleagues who might never meet?) • Virtual connectedness is ordinary The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

37. A rapidly changing world poses threats, offers opportunities • Socio-economic and cultural changes (cont.) • It is accepted that pre-eminence of the West could end, while vigour and energy are transforming the Third World • Governments worldwide outsource public duties, while private firms turned to public coffers to socialize their risks • There is growing awareness that present human consumption levels amount to a massive redistribution of wealth from future generations to ours. The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

38. A rapidly changing world poses threats, offers opportunities • Globalisation “For much of the world, globalisation as it has been managed seems like a pact with the devil. A few people in the country become wealthier; GDP statistics, for what they are worth look better, but ways of life and basic values are threatened. For some parts of the world the gains are even more tenuous, the costs more palpable. Closer integration into the global economy has brought greater volatility and insecurity, and more inequality. It has even threatened fundamental values.” Joseph Stiglitz in Making Globalisation Work The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

39. Managing water under risk and uncertainty Climate change and other factors external to water management (such as demography, technology, politics, societal values, governance and law) are demonstrating accelerating trends or disruptions. Combined with an inadequate database on water quantity, quality and use, these create new risks and uncertainties for water managers and for those who determine the direction of water actions. The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

40. Managing water under risk and uncertainty • Responsive and responsible decision-making increasingly complex and difficult • Not just know where we are and past trends, but anticipate uncertainties and opportunities of the future • Know the options we have • Develop new styles of management able to live with and benefit from uncertainty • Avoid decisions whose impact we will later regret The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

41. A rapidly changing world poses threats, offers opportunities Responses of UN- WWAP • 4th edition of World Water Development report • Indicators, Monitoring and Data Bases • World Water Scenarios The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

42. World Water Scenarios Why NEW scenarios? • Existing global water scenarios need to incorporate additional driving forces (among them climate change, globalization and security issues) and use updated information. Others are too partial, incomplete or sectoral. • Evolution of drivers and logic behind storylines should be re-examined and possibly redone in light of developments within and outside the water sector since the 1990s The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

43. World Water Scenarios Why NEW Scenarios? (cont.) • Important new policy initiatives since the last world water scenarios (for example, adoption of the MDGs • Linkages are possible with other scenario processes at the global level, e.g. new global environment scenarios (GEO5) and new IPCC scenarios on climate change. • In most cases there are no existing water scenarios at the national and sub-national levels. The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

44. World Water Scenarios Four Phases: Review and analysis of principal drivers including identification of linkages, considering applicability of drivers depending on major distinguishing characteristics of groups of countries. Review of drivers by Scenario Development Group (SDG) and representatives of countries to outline set of about four scenarios (possible futures) to be developed through qualitative and quantitative analysis (modelling) and used as background material for the preparation of scenarios by local actors. The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

45. World Water Scenarios Four Phases: Development of scenarios for selected transboundary and country basins and for some countries and states; review by SDG of the global scenarios to take account of learning at local level. Dissemination/outreach/training to strengthen the capacity of water managers and professionals as well as people in other sectors at the local, national, transboundary and regional levels. Will also inform political decision-making and address risks and uncertainties linked to global changes. The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

46. World Water Scenarios Phase 1 nearing completion: Economy and Security Agriculture Infrastructure Demography Ethics, society and culture (includes questions of equity) Politics Drivers: • Climate change and variability • Water resources, including groundwater and ecosystems • Governance and Institutions (including the right to water) • Technology The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

47. World Water Scenarios Phase 1 nearing completion: (cont.) • Six driver reports being discussed in Real Time Delphi exercises • Four reports to be reviewed by groups of experts for completeness and priority setting • Phase 1 summary report to be presented at World Water Week Stockholm September 2010 The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

48. World Water Scenarios Tentative Overall Schedule: Phase 1: Sept. 2010 (input to WWDR4) Phase 2: Dec. 2011 (input to World Water Forum) Phase 3: Mar. 2013 Phase 4: Mar. 2014 The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme

49. 3rd Edition UN World Water Development Report http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap World Water Vision http://www.worldwatercouncil.org/fileadmin/wwc/Library/WWVision/TableOfContents.pdf

50. Thank you! The United Nations World Water Assessment Programme