Slide1 l.jpg
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 22

The global economic crisis, public budgets and child-sensitive social protection in Sub-Saharan Africa Andy Sumner [email protected] PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 109 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

The global economic crisis, public budgets and child-sensitive social protection in Sub-Saharan Africa Andy Sumner [email protected] Contents. The crisis so far The crisis in SSA so far and public budgets Policy responses, social protection, and policy narratives looking ahead

Download Presentation

The global economic crisis, public budgets and child-sensitive social protection in Sub-Saharan Africa Andy Sumner [email protected]

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Slide1 l.jpg

The global economic crisis, public budgets and child-sensitive social protection in Sub-Saharan Africa

Andy Sumner

[email protected]


Contents l.jpg

Contents

  • The crisis so far

  • The crisis in SSA so far and public budgets

  • Policy responses, social protection, and policy narratives looking ahead

  • Conclusions


1 the crisis so far l.jpg

1. The crisis so far

  • What’s different?

    • Crisis origins in the industrialized countries; speed of global transmission; the size of the shock; compound nature (following fuel and food shocks) and long run impacts for children.

  • What happened and what didn’t?

    • Growth slowdown but few outright recessions; falls in exports; FDI; remittances but very variable; aid budgets under pressure but no large fall (yet?)

  • A new opportunity to promote social protection (SP)?

    • SP in East Asia a result of last crisis; strong evidence that SP is a cost-effective use of public budgets; many pilots in SSA and new resources - VFF, RSRP but will future fiscal concerns squeeze SP?

  • What does this all mean for child poverty?


Child poverty estimates of the current crisis l.jpg

Child poverty estimates of the current crisis

Countries, people, US$ or child mortality:

  • 43 or 33 countries;

  • 46, 53, 90, 108 million new poor;

  • US$46 per poor African;

  • 200-400,000 more infant deaths.

  • Depends on growth/poverty assumptions (remember debates on poverty elasticities?) and whose growth estimates (IMF; World Bank; UN-DESA and revisions);


  • How does a crisis transmit to child poverty l.jpg

    How does a crisis transmit to child poverty?


    Child poverty impacts of previous crisis l.jpg

    Child poverty impacts of previous crisis

    • MDG 1a Consumption poverty

      • unambiguous increases

    • MDG 1b and 2 Child nutrition/health/schooling

      • Generally worsen but not always – policy can prevent this.

    • Impacts and equity

      • Unequal impacts for children and by gender (HH coping mechanisms);

    • Other…

      • Strong evidence of psychological distress and mental health problems (Das, 2008); elevated levels of community and intra-household conflict during and post-crisis (Friedman and Thomas, 2007; World Bank, 2008a);

    • But….

      • Evidence is generally from middle income Asia and Latin America; current crisis is different – compound nature after food/fuel shocks; More thinking on long-run capabilities and inter-generational aspects?


    Evidence on child poverty impacts of the current crisis l.jpg

    • Hossain et al., (2009) study in 5 countries:

      • Food: higher proportion of income; less diverse/lower nutritional value, less, women eating least/last; Range of health impacts reported; School absenteeism and dropout, child labour; Intra-household tensions, abandonment of children and elderly and signs of rising social tension; Criminalisation of youth and rising crime.

  • People’s own crisis indicators? How about children’s?

    • Changes in prices, reduction in the amount of paid workers; number of vacant dormitories rented for export workers, reduced working hours, termination/broken contracts, lay-offs, returning migration.

  • Evidence on child poverty impacts of the current crisis


    2 the crisis in ssa and public budgets l.jpg

    2. The crisis in SSA and public budgets

    Surely low income, subsistence and/or agricultural economies aren’t linked to complex global financial markets?

    • % banking sector assets held by foreign banks: > 50% = e.g. Mozambique (100%), Uganda (80%), Zambia (77%), Tanzania (66%) Ghana (65%).

    • Remittances as % GDP: > 2% = e.g. Sierra Leone (9%), Kenya (7%), Nigeria (6%), Uganda (4%); Ethiopia (2%).

    • Primary commodities as % exports: >80% = e.g. Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Sudan,Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia.

    • Many countries have multiple economic vulnerabilities


    Data so far on ssa and outlook l.jpg

    Data so far on SSA and outlook

    • Export earnings have not fallen radically but haven’t grown at pre-crisis rates (exception is oil exporters have big falls)

    • Large falls in FDI and remittances in many countries but not all;

    • Significant deceleration in GDP per capita growth rates;

    • Pressure on public expenditure in some countries immediately, and most in next 2 years. Most striking trend is debt servicing upward trend - large annual increases in debt servicing;


    3 policy responses social protection and policy narratives looking ahead l.jpg

    3. Policy responses, social protection, and policy narratives looking ahead

    • Context

      • Some expansionary fiscal policy e.g. Zambia; Tanzania; Mozambique; but exception – generally fiscal tightening and likely to continue; (aid under pressure too).

    • Policy narratives

      • Shifting ‘conventional wisdom’ on public expenditure towards social protection and ‘graduation’; plenty of evidence that SP reduces child poverty; more pilots emerging in SSA; more resources, more donor support, more domestic support?

    • Looking ahead

      • Taking human development to the next dimension(s) - what might ‘human wellbeing’ offer SP?


    From human development to human wellbeing l.jpg

    From human development to ‘human wellbeing’?

    What a child has;

    What a child can do with what they have;

    How a child thinks about what they have and can do.


    Human wellbeing and the causes of child poverty l.jpg

    ‘Human wellbeing’ and the causes of child poverty


    Human wellbeing and policy responses l.jpg

    ‘Human wellbeing’ and policy responses


    How might human wellbeing help with sp l.jpg

    How might ‘human wellbeing’ help with SP?


    How might human wellbeing help with sp21 l.jpg

    How might ‘human wellbeing’ help with SP?


    4 conclusions l.jpg

    4. Conclusions

    • Poverty impacts of previous crises significant for child poverty; Early evidence for current crisis supports this;

    • SSA connected to crisis but highly nuanced impacts - some countries very badly hit others less so;

    • Fiscal/aid landscape shifting; thinking about a new policy narrative - from human development to ‘human wellbeing’ - implications for child poverty analysis, inter-generational transmission, policy responses and child-sensitive SP?


  • Login