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Hypotheses

Hypotheses. 9/3/2013. Readings. Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock ) Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31). Homework:Backing Up Your Data. Save the Information from the CD onto another media Flash Drive Edshare

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Hypotheses

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  1. Hypotheses 9/3/2013

  2. Readings • Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock) • Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31)

  3. Homework:Backing Up Your Data • Save the Information from the CD onto another media • Flash Drive • Edshare • These are just data files, not aprogram

  4. We Will Use the Full Version

  5. Make Sure you move these files

  6. The Files that We Will use • Data Files on the Pollack CD • GSS2008.SAV- the 2008 General Social Survey Dataset • n=2023 • 301 variables • NES2008.SAV- the National Election Study from 2008. n=2323 • 302 variables • STATES.SAV- aggregate level data for the 50 States. N=50 • 82 Variables • WORLD.SAV- aggregate level data for the nations of the world. n=191 • 69 Variables

  7. Opportunities to discuss course content

  8. Office Hours For the Week • When • Wednesday 12-3:30 • Thursday 8-10, 11-12 • And by appointment

  9. Course Learning Objectives • Students will learn the research methods commonly used in behavioral sciences and will be able to interpret and explain empirical data. • Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design. 

  10. How we measure our Variables Units of Analysis

  11. Units of analysis • Aggregate • Individual • Make sure you measure your independent and dependent variables the same way

  12. Hypotheses

  13. What Is a Hypothesis • An educated Guess • These are explicit Statements • They Try to explain a relationship • But they are only tentative until tested

  14. Stating a hypothesis There is a _____(direction)________relationship between ________and ____________

  15. The Null Hypothesis • The Statement of No Relationship • What we want to disprove • The Basic start of research H0

  16. On Stating the Null “there is no relationship between the independent and dependent variable”

  17. Correlative Hypothesis • “there is a relationship between x and y” • A very weak statement

  18. Positive Hypothesis • A directional hypothesis • “as the independent variable increases, the dependent variable increases”

  19. Positive Relationship

  20. On Stating a Positive relationship: There is a positive relationship between my independent variable (church attendance ) and dependent variable (support for McCain)

  21. Negative Relationship/Hypothesis • “As the independent variable increases, the dependent variable decreases” • Also called an inverse hypothesis

  22. Minimum Wage

  23. On Stating a negative hypothesis: There is a negative (inverse) relationship between “age” (independent) and “minimum wage” (dependent variable)

  24. Logarithmic • Y=log(x) • The dependent variable changes rapidly, followed by less change

  25. An Example

  26. Another Log relationship

  27. Curvilinear • The Relationship forms a curve! • The dependent variable increases to a point, and which point it begins to decrease

  28. The Laffer Curve • The Debate over taxes • Ben Stein

  29. Fuel Efficiency

  30. Crime

  31. More

  32. Characteristics of good hypotheses

  33. Good Hypotheses are Empirical • Something that we can Measure

  34. Good Hypothesis are Generalizable Specific Always State a direction Always identify the iv and the d.v. Avoid the correlative hypothesis • Apply to more than one case

  35. Good Hypotheses are Plausible • There needs to be a Real world justification for why they are related • If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit

  36. Good Hypotheses are Testable • You have to be able to test your hypothesisor it is just speculation.

  37. Non-Tautological • Your independent and dependent variables are separate concepts

  38. A Test of Scientific Knowledge A Causal Hypothesis

  39. What is a causal hypothesis? • The Boldest Hypothesis out there • A relationship that will occur 100% at all times, no exceptions • Difficult to Prove

  40. To Prove a Causal Hypothesis • A Change in the Independent Variable will always cause a change in the dependent variable. • A change in X always precedes a change in Y • X is necessary and sufficient to cause a change in Y

  41. Causality is the heart of scientific knowledge!

  42. Close, But not a law • Maurice Duverger (1957) wrote that "the simple-majority single-ballot system favors the two-party system" and that "multimember districts favor multiple parties". Hypothesis- PR systems will have more parties

  43. Measurement

  44. What is Measurement • How we quantify our concepts • The most basic measures talks about how much (votes, money, etc).

  45. Good Measures • Start with Good Operationalization • Are reliable and accurate (valid) • Can actually be done • This is difficult

  46. Bad Measures • Are unreliable • Are inaccurate (valid) • This leads to bad conclusions

  47. Reliability and validity

  48. Measurement Validity • A measure is valid if it measures what it is supposed to measure • The measure and the concept correspond

  49. Operational Validity • The measure does what it says • This can be difficult to establish

  50. Face Validity • The simplest way to seek validity • The Measure looks good on its face • We ask People, use the literature • Problems?

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