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Hypotheses. 9/4/2012. Readings. Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock ) Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31). Opportunities to discuss course content. Office Hours For the Week. When Wednesday 11-1 Thursday 8-12 And by appointment.

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hypotheses

Hypotheses

9/4/2012

readings
Readings
  • Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock)
  • Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31)
office hours for the week
Office Hours For the Week
  • When
    • Wednesday 11-1
    • Thursday 8-12
    • And by appointment
course learning objectives
Course Learning Objectives
  • Students will learn the research methods commonly used in behavioral sciences and will be able to interpret and explain empirical data.
  • Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design. 
turning things empirical
Turning things empirical
  • We experience it
  • We Define it
  • We give it value (operationalize)
  • We develop a hypothesis to explain/predict what we experienced in step 1
units of analysis1
Units of analysis
  • The unit about which information is collected and that provides the basis of analysis
  • Each member of a population is an element
  • Why they are important?
individual unit
Individual Unit
  • The lowest form of data
  • People, congressmen, presidents, etc
aggregate data
Aggregate Data
  • A collection of individual level units
  • Often measured in percentages
  • Footprints
ecological fallacy
Ecological Fallacy
  • this arises when an aggregate/ecological level phenomenon is used to make inferences at the individual level.
  • Taking statewide data and applying to individuals
  • Does everyone in MS go to church?
the exception fallacy
The Exception Fallacy
  • taking one person\'s behavior, attributes, etc and applying it to an entire group
  • Using 1 example to define group behavior
what is a hypothesis
What Is a Hypothesis
  • An educated Guess
  • These are explicit Statements
  • They Try to explain a relationship
  • But they are only tentative until tested
the null hypothesis
The Null Hypothesis
  • The Statement of No Relationship
  • What we want to disprove
  • The Basic start of research

H0

correlative hypothesis
Correlative Hypothesis
  • “there is a relationship between x and y”
  • A very weak statement
positive hypothesis
Positive Hypothesis
  • A directional hypothesis
  • “as the independent variable increases, the dependent variable increases”
negative relationship hypothesis
Negative Relationship/Hypothesis
  • “As the independent variable increases, the dependent variable decreases”
  • Also called an inverse hypothesis
logarithmic
Logarithmic
  • Y=log(x)
  • The dependent variable changes rapidly, followed by less change
curvilinear
Curvilinear
  • The Relationship forms a curve!
  • The dependent variable increases to a point, and which point it begins to decrease
the laffer curve
The Laffer Curve
  • The Debate over taxes
  • Ben Stein
hulk hogan
Hulk Hogan
  • Roddy Piper (4:44)
  • King Kong Bundy (2:56)
stating a hypothesis
Stating a hypothesis

There is a _____(direction)________relationship

between ________and ____________

good hypotheses are empirical
Good Hypotheses are Empirical
  • Something that we can Measure
good hypothesis are
Good Hypothesis are

Generalizable

Specific

Always State a direction

Always identify the iv and the d.v.

Avoid the correlative hypothesis

  • Apply to more than one case
good hypotheses are plausible
Good Hypotheses are Plausible
  • There needs to be a Real world justification for why they are related
  • If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit
good hypotheses are testable
Good Hypotheses are Testable
  • You have to be able to test your hypothesisor it is just speculation.
non tautological
Non-Tautological
  • Your independent and dependent variables are separate concepts
what is a causal hypothesis
What is a causal hypothesis?
  • The Boldest Hypothesis out there
  • A relationship that will occur 100% at all times, no exceptions
  • Difficult to Prove
to prove a causal hypothesis
To Prove a Causal Hypothesis
  • A Change in the Independent Variable will always cause a change in the dependent variable.
  • A change in X always precedes a change in Y
  • X is necessary and sufficient to cause a change in Y
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