Hypotheses

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# Hypotheses - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hypotheses. 9/4/2012. Readings. Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock ) Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31). Opportunities to discuss course content. Office Hours For the Week. When Wednesday 11-1 Thursday 8-12 And by appointment.

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### Hypotheses

9/4/2012

• Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock)
• Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31)
Office Hours For the Week
• When
• Wednesday 11-1
• Thursday 8-12
• And by appointment
Course Learning Objectives
• Students will learn the research methods commonly used in behavioral sciences and will be able to interpret and explain empirical data.
• Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design.
Turning things empirical
• We experience it
• We Define it
• We give it value (operationalize)
• We develop a hypothesis to explain/predict what we experienced in step 1
Units of analysis
• The unit about which information is collected and that provides the basis of analysis
• Each member of a population is an element
• Why they are important?
Individual Unit
• The lowest form of data
• People, congressmen, presidents, etc
Aggregate Data
• A collection of individual level units
• Often measured in percentages
• Footprints
Ecological Fallacy
• this arises when an aggregate/ecological level phenomenon is used to make inferences at the individual level.
• Taking statewide data and applying to individuals
• Does everyone in MS go to church?
The Exception Fallacy
• taking one person\'s behavior, attributes, etc and applying it to an entire group
• Using 1 example to define group behavior
What Is a Hypothesis
• An educated Guess
• These are explicit Statements
• They Try to explain a relationship
• But they are only tentative until tested
The Null Hypothesis
• The Statement of No Relationship
• What we want to disprove
• The Basic start of research

H0

Correlative Hypothesis
• “there is a relationship between x and y”
• A very weak statement
Positive Hypothesis
• A directional hypothesis
• “as the independent variable increases, the dependent variable increases”
Negative Relationship/Hypothesis
• “As the independent variable increases, the dependent variable decreases”
• Also called an inverse hypothesis
Logarithmic
• Y=log(x)
• The dependent variable changes rapidly, followed by less change
Curvilinear
• The Relationship forms a curve!
• The dependent variable increases to a point, and which point it begins to decrease
The Laffer Curve
• The Debate over taxes
• Ben Stein
Hulk Hogan
• Roddy Piper (4:44)
• King Kong Bundy (2:56)
Stating a hypothesis

There is a _____(direction)________relationship

between ________and ____________

Good Hypotheses are Empirical
• Something that we can Measure
Good Hypothesis are

Generalizable

Specific

Always State a direction

Always identify the iv and the d.v.

Avoid the correlative hypothesis

• Apply to more than one case
Good Hypotheses are Plausible
• There needs to be a Real world justification for why they are related
• If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit
Good Hypotheses are Testable
• You have to be able to test your hypothesisor it is just speculation.
Non-Tautological
• Your independent and dependent variables are separate concepts
What is a causal hypothesis?
• The Boldest Hypothesis out there
• A relationship that will occur 100% at all times, no exceptions
• Difficult to Prove
To Prove a Causal Hypothesis
• A Change in the Independent Variable will always cause a change in the dependent variable.
• A change in X always precedes a change in Y
• X is necessary and sufficient to cause a change in Y