Hypotheses
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Hypotheses. 9/4/2012. Readings. Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock ) Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31). Opportunities to discuss course content. Office Hours For the Week. When Wednesday 11-1 Thursday 8-12 And by appointment.

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Hypotheses

Hypotheses

9/4/2012


Readings

Readings

  • Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock)

  • Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31)


Opportunities to discuss course content

Opportunities to discuss course content


Office hours for the week

Office Hours For the Week

  • When

    • Wednesday 11-1

    • Thursday 8-12

    • And by appointment


Course learning objectives

Course Learning Objectives

  • Students will learn the research methods commonly used in behavioral sciences and will be able to interpret and explain empirical data.

  • Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design. 


Variables

Variables


Turning things empirical

Turning things empirical

  • We experience it

  • We Define it

  • We give it value (operationalize)

  • We develop a hypothesis to explain/predict what we experienced in step 1


The relationship between them

The Relationship Between them


Units of analysis

How we measure our Variables

Units of Analysis


Units of analysis1

Units of analysis

  • The unit about which information is collected and that provides the basis of analysis

  • Each member of a population is an element

  • Why they are important?


Individual unit

Individual Unit

  • The lowest form of data

  • People, congressmen, presidents, etc


Aggregate data

Aggregate Data

  • A collection of individual level units

  • Often measured in percentages

  • Footprints


The poor over time

The Poor over Time


Immigration over time

Immigration over time


The problem of access

The Problem of Access


Fallacies made with data

Fallacies made With Data


Ecological fallacy

Ecological Fallacy

  • this arises when an aggregate/ecological level phenomenon is used to make inferences at the individual level.

  • Taking statewide data and applying to individuals

  • Does everyone in MS go to church?


The exception fallacy

The Exception Fallacy

  • taking one person's behavior, attributes, etc and applying it to an entire group

  • Using 1 example to define group behavior


Examples from texas

Examples from Texas


Hypotheses1

Hypotheses


What is a hypothesis

What Is a Hypothesis

  • An educated Guess

  • These are explicit Statements

  • They Try to explain a relationship

  • But they are only tentative until tested


The null hypothesis

The Null Hypothesis

  • The Statement of No Relationship

  • What we want to disprove

  • The Basic start of research

H0


Correlative hypothesis

Correlative Hypothesis

  • “there is a relationship between x and y”

  • A very weak statement


Positive hypothesis

Positive Hypothesis

  • A directional hypothesis

  • “as the independent variable increases, the dependent variable increases”


Positive relationship

Positive Relationship


Negative relationship hypothesis

Negative Relationship/Hypothesis

  • “As the independent variable increases, the dependent variable decreases”

  • Also called an inverse hypothesis


An example

An Example


Logarithmic

Logarithmic

  • Y=log(x)

  • The dependent variable changes rapidly, followed by less change


An example1

An Example


Curvilinear

Curvilinear

  • The Relationship forms a curve!

  • The dependent variable increases to a point, and which point it begins to decrease


The laffer curve

The Laffer Curve

  • The Debate over taxes

  • Ben Stein


Fuel efficiency

Fuel Efficiency


Hulk hogan

Hulk Hogan

  • Roddy Piper (4:44)

  • King Kong Bundy (2:56)


Hypotheses

More


Stating a hypothesis

Stating a hypothesis

There is a _____(direction)________relationship

between ________and ____________


Characteristics of good hypotheses

Characteristics of good hypotheses


Good hypotheses are empirical

Good Hypotheses are Empirical

  • Something that we can Measure


Good hypothesis are

Good Hypothesis are

Generalizable

Specific

Always State a direction

Always identify the iv and the d.v.

Avoid the correlative hypothesis

  • Apply to more than one case


Good hypotheses are plausible

Good Hypotheses are Plausible

  • There needs to be a Real world justification for why they are related

  • If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit


Good hypotheses are testable

Good Hypotheses are Testable

  • You have to be able to test your hypothesisor it is just speculation.


Non tautological

Non-Tautological

  • Your independent and dependent variables are separate concepts


A causal hypothesis

A Test of Scientific Knowledge

A Causal Hypothesis


What is a causal hypothesis

What is a causal hypothesis?

  • The Boldest Hypothesis out there

  • A relationship that will occur 100% at all times, no exceptions

  • Difficult to Prove


To prove a causal hypothesis

To Prove a Causal Hypothesis

  • A Change in the Independent Variable will always cause a change in the dependent variable.

  • A change in X always precedes a change in Y

  • X is necessary and sufficient to cause a change in Y


Causality is the heart of scientific knowledge

Causality is the heart of scientific knowledge!


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