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### Hypotheses

9/4/2012

Readings

- Chapter 1 The Measurement of Concepts (14-23) (Pollock)
- Chapter 2 Measuring and Describing Variables (Pollock) (pp.28-31)

Office Hours For the Week

- When
- Wednesday 11-1
- Thursday 8-12
- And by appointment

Course Learning Objectives

- Students will learn the research methods commonly used in behavioral sciences and will be able to interpret and explain empirical data.
- Students will learn the basics of research design and be able to critically analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different types of design.

Turning things empirical

- We experience it
- We Define it
- We give it value (operationalize)
- We develop a hypothesis to explain/predict what we experienced in step 1

Units of Analysis

Units of analysis

- The unit about which information is collected and that provides the basis of analysis
- Each member of a population is an element
- Why they are important?

Individual Unit

- The lowest form of data
- People, congressmen, presidents, etc

Aggregate Data

- A collection of individual level units
- Often measured in percentages
- Footprints

Ecological Fallacy

- this arises when an aggregate/ecological level phenomenon is used to make inferences at the individual level.
- Taking statewide data and applying to individuals
- Does everyone in MS go to church?

The Exception Fallacy

- taking one person's behavior, attributes, etc and applying it to an entire group
- Using 1 example to define group behavior

Examples from Texas

What Is a Hypothesis

- An educated Guess
- These are explicit Statements
- They Try to explain a relationship
- But they are only tentative until tested

The Null Hypothesis

- The Statement of No Relationship
- What we want to disprove
- The Basic start of research

H0

Correlative Hypothesis

- “there is a relationship between x and y”
- A very weak statement

Positive Hypothesis

- A directional hypothesis
- “as the independent variable increases, the dependent variable increases”

Negative Relationship/Hypothesis

- “As the independent variable increases, the dependent variable decreases”
- Also called an inverse hypothesis

Logarithmic

- Y=log(x)
- The dependent variable changes rapidly, followed by less change

Curvilinear

- The Relationship forms a curve!
- The dependent variable increases to a point, and which point it begins to decrease

The Laffer Curve

- The Debate over taxes
- Ben Stein

Hulk Hogan

- Roddy Piper (4:44)
- King Kong Bundy (2:56)

Stating a hypothesis

There is a _____(direction)________relationship

between ________and ____________

Good Hypotheses are Empirical

- Something that we can Measure

Good Hypothesis are

Generalizable

Specific

Always State a direction

Always identify the iv and the d.v.

Avoid the correlative hypothesis

- Apply to more than one case

Good Hypotheses are Plausible

- There needs to be a Real world justification for why they are related
- If Chewbacca lives on Endor, you must acquit

Good Hypotheses are Testable

- You have to be able to test your hypothesisor it is just speculation.

Non-Tautological

- Your independent and dependent variables are separate concepts

A Test of Scientific Knowledge

A Causal HypothesisWhat is a causal hypothesis?

- The Boldest Hypothesis out there
- A relationship that will occur 100% at all times, no exceptions
- Difficult to Prove

To Prove a Causal Hypothesis

- A Change in the Independent Variable will always cause a change in the dependent variable.
- A change in X always precedes a change in Y
- X is necessary and sufficient to cause a change in Y

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