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Bisbee Economic Outlook 2012. Gross Domestic Product. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Inflation (CPI). Compared to same month previous year. National Outlook. Continued slow economic growth and labor market improvement Recovery may speed up in 2013

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Presentation Transcript
gross domestic product
Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

inflation cpi
Inflation (CPI)

Compared to same month previous year

national outlook
National Outlook
  • Continued slow economic growth and labor market improvement
  • Recovery may speed up in 2013
  • Long-run inflation threat remains
the local economy

The Local Economy

Cochise County & Bisbee

retail sales growth
Retail Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

retail sales recent activity
Retail Sales Recent Activity
  • Cochise County
    • 2012: 2.0% *
    • 2011: -1.2%
    • 2010: -4.8%
    • 2009: -4.2%
    • 2008: -6.5%
    • 2007: -1.3%
  • Bisbee
    • 2012: -6.0% *
    • 2011: 5.6%
    • 2010: 1.7%
    • 2009: -6.9%
    • 2008: -0.4%
    • 2007: 3.4%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year

restaurant and bar sales growth
Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

restaurant bar sales recent activity
Restaurant & Bar Sales Recent Activity
  • Cochise County
    • 2012: -4.2% *
    • 2011: -0.2%
    • 2010: 0.0%
    • 2009: 0.3%
    • 2008: 0.2%
    • 2007: 0.1%
  • Bisbee
    • 2012: 11.5% *
    • 2011: -8.8%
    • 2010: 2.8%
    • 2009: -6.8%
    • 2008: -0.6%
    • 2007: -4.8%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year

accommodation sales growth
Accommodation Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year

accommodation sales recent activity
Accommodation Sales Recent Activity
  • Cochise County
    • 2012: -16.3% *
    • 2011: -13.1%
    • 2010: 8.3%
    • 2009: -9.0%
    • 2008: 1.0%
    • 2007: 19.7%
  • Bisbee
    • 2012: 10.5% *
    • 2011: -2.7%
    • 2010: -13.2%
    • 2009: -27.3%
    • 2008: 11.1%
    • 2007: 20.6%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year

sales outlook
Sales Outlook
  • Modest retail sales growth countywide; stabilization/modest growth in Bisbee
  • Restaurant and bar trending downward countywide but upward in Bisbee
  • Accommodation sales trending downward both countywide and in Bisbee
  • Fort Huachuca/defense budget will have large impact
unemployment rates
Unemployment Rates

* Jan-Oct only; seasonally adjusted

monthly unemployment rates
Monthly Unemployment Rates

Seasonally adjusted

cochise county nonfarm job growth
Cochise CountyNonfarm Job Growth

Compared to same month previous year

cochise county job gains losses by industry
Cochise CountyJob Gains/Losses By Industry

12 months ended October 2012

* Includes mining

cochise county job growth rate by industry
Cochise CountyJob Growth Rate By Industry

12 months ended October 2012

* Includes mining

employment outlook
Employment Outlook

Local labor market improvement sluggish

Continued slow improvement likely

Blips along the way

Fort Huachuca/defense budget will have large impact

cochise county new home construction
Cochise county New Home Construction

Single Family Residential Building Permits

* Projected

home sales
Home Sales

* Projected

median home price
Median Home Price

* Jan-Sep only

outlook
Outlook
  • New residential construction still declining countywide
  • Bisbee historically has had low levels of new residential construction
  • Boost to sales volume from foreclosures/ lower prices/lower interest rates
  • Foreclosures appear to be clearing
conclusion
Conclusion

Moving in the right direction, but slowly

Local retail sales show promise

Accommodation continues to struggle countywide and in Bisbee

Restaurant and bar trending downward countywide but upward in Bisbee

Countywide, defense spending cuts pose largest threat

Labor market improvement slow

Home sales picking up, construction stalled

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