Bisbee economic outlook 2012
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Bisbee Economic Outlook 2012. Gross Domestic Product. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Inflation (CPI). Compared to same month previous year. National Outlook. Continued slow economic growth and labor market improvement Recovery may speed up in 2013

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Bisbee Economic Outlook 2012

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Bisbee economic outlook 2012

Bisbee Economic Outlook

2012


Gross domestic product

Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate


Inflation cpi

Inflation (CPI)

Compared to same month previous year


National outlook

National Outlook

  • Continued slow economic growth and labor market improvement

  • Recovery may speed up in 2013

  • Long-run inflation threat remains


Gdp by state

GDP by State


The local economy

The Local Economy

Cochise County & Bisbee


Retail sales growth

Retail Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year


Retail sales recent activity

Retail Sales Recent Activity

  • Cochise County

    • 2012: 2.0% *

    • 2011: -1.2%

    • 2010: -4.8%

    • 2009: -4.2%

    • 2008: -6.5%

    • 2007: -1.3%

  • Bisbee

    • 2012: -6.0% *

    • 2011: 5.6%

    • 2010: 1.7%

    • 2009: -6.9%

    • 2008: -0.4%

    • 2007: 3.4%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year


Restaurant and bar sales growth

Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year


Restaurant bar sales recent activity

Restaurant & Bar Sales Recent Activity

  • Cochise County

    • 2012: -4.2% *

    • 2011: -0.2%

    • 2010: 0.0%

    • 2009: 0.3%

    • 2008: 0.2%

    • 2007: 0.1%

  • Bisbee

    • 2012: 11.5% *

    • 2011: -8.8%

    • 2010: 2.8%

    • 2009: -6.8%

    • 2008: -0.6%

    • 2007: -4.8%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year


Accommodation sales growth

Accommodation Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year


Accommodation sales recent activity

Accommodation Sales Recent Activity

  • Cochise County

    • 2012: -16.3% *

    • 2011: -13.1%

    • 2010: 8.3%

    • 2009: -9.0%

    • 2008: 1.0%

    • 2007: 19.7%

  • Bisbee

    • 2012: 10.5% *

    • 2011: -2.7%

    • 2010: -13.2%

    • 2009: -27.3%

    • 2008: 11.1%

    • 2007: 20.6%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year


Sales outlook

Sales Outlook

  • Modest retail sales growth countywide; stabilization/modest growth in Bisbee

  • Restaurant and bar trending downward countywide but upward in Bisbee

  • Accommodation sales trending downward both countywide and in Bisbee

  • Fort Huachuca/defense budget will have large impact


Employment

Employment


Unemployment rates

Unemployment Rates

* Jan-Oct only; seasonally adjusted


Monthly unemployment rates

Monthly Unemployment Rates

Seasonally adjusted


Cochise county nonfarm job growth

Cochise CountyNonfarm Job Growth

Compared to same month previous year


Cochise county job gains losses by industry

Cochise CountyJob Gains/Losses By Industry

12 months ended October 2012

* Includes mining


Cochise county job growth rate by industry

Cochise CountyJob Growth Rate By Industry

12 months ended October 2012

* Includes mining


Employment outlook

Employment Outlook

Local labor market improvement sluggish

Continued slow improvement likely

Blips along the way

Fort Huachuca/defense budget will have large impact


Housing and real estate

Housing and Real Estate


Cochise county new home construction

Cochise county New Home Construction

Single Family Residential Building Permits

* Projected


Home sales

Home Sales

* Projected


Median home price

Median Home Price

* Jan-Sep only


Outlook

Outlook

  • New residential construction still declining countywide

  • Bisbee historically has had low levels of new residential construction

  • Boost to sales volume from foreclosures/ lower prices/lower interest rates

  • Foreclosures appear to be clearing


Conclusion

Conclusion

Moving in the right direction, but slowly

Local retail sales show promise

Accommodation continues to struggle countywide and in Bisbee

Restaurant and bar trending downward countywide but upward in Bisbee

Countywide, defense spending cuts pose largest threat

Labor market improvement slow

Home sales picking up, construction stalled


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