Bisbee economic outlook 2012
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Bisbee Economic Outlook 2012. Gross Domestic Product. Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate. Inflation (CPI). Compared to same month previous year. National Outlook. Continued slow economic growth and labor market improvement Recovery may speed up in 2013

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Presentation Transcript

Gross domestic product
Gross Domestic Product

Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate


Inflation cpi
Inflation (CPI)

Compared to same month previous year


National outlook
National Outlook

  • Continued slow economic growth and labor market improvement

  • Recovery may speed up in 2013

  • Long-run inflation threat remains



The local economy

The Local Economy

Cochise County & Bisbee


Retail sales growth
Retail Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year


Retail sales recent activity
Retail Sales Recent Activity

  • Cochise County

    • 2012: 2.0% *

    • 2011: -1.2%

    • 2010: -4.8%

    • 2009: -4.2%

    • 2008: -6.5%

    • 2007: -1.3%

  • Bisbee

    • 2012: -6.0% *

    • 2011: 5.6%

    • 2010: 1.7%

    • 2009: -6.9%

    • 2008: -0.4%

    • 2007: 3.4%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year


Restaurant and bar sales growth
Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year


Restaurant bar sales recent activity
Restaurant & Bar Sales Recent Activity

  • Cochise County

    • 2012: -4.2% *

    • 2011: -0.2%

    • 2010: 0.0%

    • 2009: 0.3%

    • 2008: 0.2%

    • 2007: 0.1%

  • Bisbee

    • 2012: 11.5% *

    • 2011: -8.8%

    • 2010: 2.8%

    • 2009: -6.8%

    • 2008: -0.6%

    • 2007: -4.8%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year


Accommodation sales growth
Accommodation Sales Growth

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year


Accommodation sales recent activity
Accommodation Sales Recent Activity

  • Cochise County

    • 2012: -16.3% *

    • 2011: -13.1%

    • 2010: 8.3%

    • 2009: -9.0%

    • 2008: 1.0%

    • 2007: 19.7%

  • Bisbee

    • 2012: 10.5% *

    • 2011: -2.7%

    • 2010: -13.2%

    • 2009: -27.3%

    • 2008: 11.1%

    • 2007: 20.6%

* Jan-Sep only; comparison to same period the previous year


Sales outlook
Sales Outlook

  • Modest retail sales growth countywide; stabilization/modest growth in Bisbee

  • Restaurant and bar trending downward countywide but upward in Bisbee

  • Accommodation sales trending downward both countywide and in Bisbee

  • Fort Huachuca/defense budget will have large impact



Unemployment rates
Unemployment Rates

* Jan-Oct only; seasonally adjusted


Monthly unemployment rates
Monthly Unemployment Rates

Seasonally adjusted


Cochise county nonfarm job growth
Cochise CountyNonfarm Job Growth

Compared to same month previous year


Cochise county job gains losses by industry
Cochise CountyJob Gains/Losses By Industry

12 months ended October 2012

* Includes mining


Cochise county job growth rate by industry
Cochise CountyJob Growth Rate By Industry

12 months ended October 2012

* Includes mining


Employment outlook
Employment Outlook

Local labor market improvement sluggish

Continued slow improvement likely

Blips along the way

Fort Huachuca/defense budget will have large impact


Housing and real estate

Housing and Real Estate


Cochise county new home construction
Cochise county New Home Construction

Single Family Residential Building Permits

* Projected


Home sales
Home Sales

* Projected


Median home price
Median Home Price

* Jan-Sep only


Outlook
Outlook

  • New residential construction still declining countywide

  • Bisbee historically has had low levels of new residential construction

  • Boost to sales volume from foreclosures/ lower prices/lower interest rates

  • Foreclosures appear to be clearing


Conclusion
Conclusion

Moving in the right direction, but slowly

Local retail sales show promise

Accommodation continues to struggle countywide and in Bisbee

Restaurant and bar trending downward countywide but upward in Bisbee

Countywide, defense spending cuts pose largest threat

Labor market improvement slow

Home sales picking up, construction stalled


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