Economic outlook
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 68

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 145 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. MAY 2013. Economic Outlook is revized in the 1st and the 3rd weeks of the month. Recent Update: 20/05/2013. OUTLINE. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK 1) MERCHANDISE 2) SERVICES C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY

Download Presentation

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Economic outlook

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

MAY 2013

Economic Outlook is revized in the 1st and the 3rd weeks of the month.

Recent Update: 20/05/2013


Outline

OUTLINE

A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK

1) MERCHANDISE

2) SERVICES

C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES

D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY

E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Economic outlook

A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Growth forecasts for selected countries country groups

Growth Forecasts for Selected Countries/Country Groups (%)

Source: IMF, OECD, UN, WB

  • According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 3.4% and 3.7% in 2013 and 2014 respectively.

  • In the 2012, Turkish economy grew by 2.2%.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Forecasts for merchandise and services trade growth

Forecasts for Merchandise and Services Trade Growth (%)

Source: IMF and WTO

  • According to the IMF estimates, global trade of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.5% in 2013 and 5.3% in 2014 in real terms.

  • According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.3% in 2013 and 5.0% in 2014 in real terms.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Economic targets of 201 3 201 5 medium term programme

Economic Targets of 2013-2015 Medium Term Programme

*Forecast (Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development – October 9, 2012)

  • Medium Term Programme which covers 2013-2015 period aims to strengthen macroeconomic and financial stability by reaching potential economic growth rate, decreasing the current account deficit further, reducing inflation and improving public fiscal balances.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Real gdp growth of selected countries country groups 2012

Real GDP Growth of SelectedCountries/Country Groups (2012)

Euro Area

Source: TURKSTAT, IMF

  • Turkish Economy expanded by 2.2% in 2012.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Annual economic growth rates 2002 2012

AnnualEconomicGrowthRates (2002-2012)

* Forecast, Medium Term Programme Source:TURKSTAT

  • Turkey has recovered fast from the global financial crisis and amongstthose countries affected less from current global economic uncertainties.

  • Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2012 was 5.2%.

  • Real GDP growth for 2012 realized as 2.2%.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Gdp per capita

GDP Per Capita

Source: Dollar value is from TURKSTAT, PPP GNI value from World Bank

  • Since 2002 GDP per capita has tripled from 3,519 USD to 10,609 USD. According to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP, current international $), GNI per capita surpassed 15 thousand international dollar which has the same purchasing power over GNI as a U.S. dollar has in the United States.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Capacity utilization ratio

Capacity Utilization Ratio (%)

Source: TURKSTAT

  • Capacity utilization ratio realized as 73.6 % in April 2013.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Industrial production index

Industrial Production Index

Source: TURKSTAT

  • Industrial production index increasedby 1.9% year-over-year in March 2013 upto 116 (2010=100).

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Inflation annual percent change

Inflation (Annual Percent Change)

Source: TURKSTAT

  • Annual inflation in 2012 realized as 6.16%.

  • Inflationwas 6.13% in April 2013.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Real effective foreign exchange rate 2003 100

Real EffectiveForeign Exchange Rate (2003=100)

  Source: CBRT

  • As of April 2013, Turkish Lira has appreciated by 0.88% in terms of the CPI-based real effective exchange rate and depreciated by 0.17% in terms of the PPI- based real effective exchange rate.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Total credits and consumer credits billion tl

Total Creditsand Consumer Credits (Billion TL)

  Source: BRSA

  • Credits and specifically consumer credits increased in parallel to the growing domestic demand.

  • Total credits increased 2.25% on a monthly basis in March 2013.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Cds premiums may 16th 2013

CDS Premiums (May 16th, 2013)

Source: DB Research

* Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels.

  • CDS premium of Turkey is significantly low compared to most of the European countries.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Financial markets

Financial Markets

  Source: BRSA

  • Comparing to previous year, total assets of the banking sector increased by 16.2% and reached 1.428 trillion TL in March 2013.

  • Capital Adequacy Ratio of Turkish Banking Sector is 17.42% in March 2013.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Eu defined budget deficit gdp

EU Defined Budget Deficit/ GDP (%)

* 2011

  • EU defined general government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 2.6% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey satisfied the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 18 EU Countries.

  • Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 2.0% in Turkey in 2012.

  • In January-April 2013 period, central government budget deficit was 302 million Turkish Liras.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Government debt gdp

GovernmentDebt / GDP (%)

  • Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 36.1% in 2012, which was below the level in 24 EU Countries and the Maastricht Criteria (60%).

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Unemployment rates

UnemploymentRates (%)

Source: TURKSTAT

  • InFebruary2013, theunemployment rate was 10.5%. Seasonallyadjustedunemployment rate was 9.2%.

  • Seasonallyadjustedunemployment rate in Euro Areawas 12.1% and 10.9% in (EU27) in March 2013. Interms of unemploymentratioTurkeyoutperformed 15 EU countriesaccordingtocurrent data.

  • AfterRussia, Germany, Englandand France, Turkey has the 5th largestlaborforceamongtheEuropeancountries. (2011, World Bank)

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Potential of population 2011

Potential of Population (2011)

Source: World Bank (2011), TURKSTAT (2012)

  • Turkey has a population of 75.6 million in which half of the population is under the age of 30.1.

  • Growth rate of population is 1.2% in Turkey, 0.3% in EU Countries and -0.1% in Germany.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Growing dynamism in turkey s domestic market

GrowingDynamism in Turkey'sDomestic Market

  • Cell phone penetration rate in households: 93.2% (2012)

  • Internet access rate in households: 47.2% (2012)

  • Internet access rate in enterprises: 92.5% (2012)

  • PC penetration rate in households: 31.8% (2012)

  • Laptop penetration rate in households: 27.1% (2012)

  • Digital camera penetration rate in households: 27.1% (2012)

  • Printer penetration rate in households: 14.0% (2011)

  • 1 of each 5 people owns a vehicle.(2011)

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Economic outlook

B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Economic outlook

I) MERCHANDISE

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Targets in merchandise trade

Targets in MerchandiseTrade

* Actual (Source: TURKSTAT)

**Forecast: MediumTermProgramme, Ministry of Development- 10/09/2012)

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Turkey s share in global merchandise exports

Turkey'sShare in Global MerchandiseExports (%)

Source: WTO

  • Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was 0.83% in 2012.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Foreign trade volume gdp

ForeignTrade Volume/GDP (%)

  • The ratio of foreign trade volume/GDP was 49.5% in 2012.

  • Turkey’s integration to the international trade system is eminent.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Foreign trade developments

ForeignTradeDevelopments

2011 - 2012 / January-March 2012 - 2013

* Energy corresponds to Chapter 27.

Source: Ministry of Economy

  • In January-March period of 2013 compared to same period of 2012, exports increased by 5% and imports increased by 5% respectively.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Monthly exports imports

MonthlyExports/Imports

  • In March 2013 compared to same period of 2012, exports have decreased by 0.3% and realized as 13.2 billion dollar and imports have decreased by 0.6% down to the level of 20.6 billion dollar.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Distribution of foreign trade in broad economic categories

Distribution of ForeignTrade in BroadEconomicCategories

EXPORT

IMPORT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Main export items

Main ExportItems

* Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2013.

Source: TURKSTAT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Main import items

Main ImportItems

* Percent change is related to the annual change in imports in 2013

Source: TURKSTAT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Main trade partners january february 201 3

Main Import Partners (Share,%)

Main Trade Partners (January-February2013)

Main Export Partners (Share,%)

Source: TURKSTAT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Exports by regions

ExportsbyRegions

Source: TURKSTAT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Import s by regions

Imports by Regions

Source: TURKSTAT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Tariff rates

TariffRates

Source: WTO Tariff Profiles, 2012

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Economic outlook

2) SERVICES

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Targets in services

Targets in Services

  • Tourism:Besidesincreasingthenumber of touristarrivals, creating a structurethatimproves service quality, targetshigh-incomegroupsbydiversifying marketing channels, preservesnaturalcapitalandsustainability, andstimulatesthosetypes of tourismwhereTurkey has comparativeadvantages

  • Construction, Engineering-Architecture, Technical ConsultancyandContracting Services:Establishing a structurethatfitsTurkey’seconomicandsocialneeds, that is compatiblewithhightechnologyandinternationalrules, that is sensitivetoenvironment,thatcreateshighvalueadded, highforeignexchangeinflowandhighemployment, thatgrantshigh service quality, andthatrelies on qualifiedhumanandphysicalcapital.

  • Commercial Services: Increasingproductivityandcommercialtradevolumein a competitiveway, andtoencouragetechnologyandinnovation.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Turkey s share in global services exports

Turkey'sShare in Global Services Exports (%)

Source: WTO, CBRT

  • Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 0.97% in 2012.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Balance of payments services

Balance of Payments - Services

*January-March

Source: CBRT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Tourism statistics quarterly

TourismStatistics (Quarterly)

Tourists visited, Source: TURKSTAT

  • Turkey ranks as the 6th in the world and the 4th in Europe among the most favourite tourism destinations.

  • Turkey’s income per tourist increased by 2.6% in 2012 compared to 2011.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Contracting services abroad

Contracting Services Abroad

Contributions to the overall economic performance: Creating foreign exchange inflow, exports, employment, technology transfer; adding to the machinery stock, facilitating internationalization

  • 31 out of the world’s top 225 contracting companies are Turkish.

  • Turkey ranks as the 2nd country (following China) in terms of the number of top contracting companies.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Logistics 2012

Logistics (2012)

  • Europe’s biggest truck fleet

  • (45 thousands trucks and 1,420 companies)

  • Almost 1.1 million flights in 2012

  • (2.4 million tonnes freight and 130 million passengers)

  • 25. biggest fleet in the world

  • 48 airports and 76 ports

  • Total length of divided highways will reach 15 thousand kilometers.

  • High-speed railway projects are carried out rapidly.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Energy

Energy

  • Turkey is an energy hub between energy producer and consumer regions

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Economic outlook

C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Investment climate in turkey

InvestmentClimate in Turkey

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Time r equired to s tart a b usiness

Time Requiredto Start a Business

Source: Invest In Turkey

  • The required time to start a business is 6 days in Turkey.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Skilled labour availability

SkilledLabourAvailability

Source: Invest In Turkey

  • Scoring is between 0 and 10.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Finance skills

Finance Skills

Source: Invest In Turkey

  • Scoring is between 0 and 10.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


The sectoral breakdown of foreign investments

TheSectoralBreakdown of ForeignInvestments

* January-March

Source: CBRT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Breakdown of foreign investments by country

Breakdown of ForeignInvestmentsby Country

* January-March

Source: CBRT

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Investment incentive system

InvestmentIncentiveSystem

  • The current investment incentive system of Turkey is structured in four sub systems:

    • General Investment Incentive System

    • Regional Investment Incentive System

    • Investment Incentive System for Big Scale Projects

    • Encouraging the Strategic Investments

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Investment incentives january march

InvestmentIncentives (January-March)

Source: General Directorate of Incentive Implementation and Foreign Investment

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


D free zones in turkey

D - FREE ZONES IN TURKEY

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


The advantages of free zones for users

TheAdvantages of FreeZonesforUsers

  • Tax advantages for manufacturers

  • Medium-and long-term investment view

  • Availability to transfer profits

  • Commercial facilities

  • Exemptiın from customs duties

  • Acquisition of the documents relating to the free movement of goods under the scope of Customs Union with the EU

  • Principle of equality

  • No time restrictions

  • Flexibility to adjust to the market needs and conditions

  • Reliable inflation accounting

  • Market access to domestic and foreign markets

  • Reduced bureaucratic procedures and dynamic business management

  • Strategic advantages.

  • Affordable and compatible infrastructure

  • Supply chain opportunities

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Free zones in turkey

FreeZones in Turkey

  • 55,938 people have been employed in Free Zones of Turkey in 2012.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Trade flows of free zones

TradeFlows of FreeZones

Source: General Directorate of Free Zones, Foreign Investments and Services

  • In 2012 total trade volume of the Free Zones reached to 23.1 billion dollars, increasing 1.8% annually.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Concentration in free zones by industries

Concentration in FreeZonesbyIndustries

Source: General Directorate of Free Zones, Foreign Investments and Services

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


E b i lateral reg i onal plurilateral and mult i lateral trade

E - BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL andMULTILATERAL TRADE

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Trade relationships of turkey with others

TradeRelationships of TurkeywithOthers

  • BilateralTradeRelationships of Turkey

    Europe, Asia-Pacific, Eurasia, Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Americas

  • RegionalandMultipleTradeRelationships of Turkey

    EU, ECO, D8, BSEC, OIC, COMCEC

  • MultilateralTradeRelationships of Turkey

    WTO, OECD, ACTA

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Regional breakdown of exports

RegionalBreakdown of Exports

* January-March ** Except Lebanon,Mauritius and Korea

Source: TURKSTAT

In January-March period of 2013, our exports to EFTA countries decreased by 56.2% and our exports to FTA countries decreased by 8.3% annually. The annual increase of our exports to Turk Republics in the same period was 21.2% and Turk Republics became the fastest growing export destination of the regions above.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Chronological evolution of the relationship between turkey and the eu

ChronologicalEvolution of theRelationshipbetweenTurkeyandthe EU

  • 12 September 1963: Ankara Agreement

  • 13 November 1970: The signing of the Additional Protocol

  • 1 January 1973: Additional Protocol to come into force

  • 14 April 1987: Turkey’s Application forMembership

  • 5 March 1995: The Association Council Decision Establishingthe Customs Union

  • 10-11 December 1999: Recognition of the Candidate Status of Turkeyat the Helsinki Summit

  • 8 March 2001: The first Accession Partnership Documentissued

  • 17 December 2004: European Council decision to start NegotiationswithTurkey in Brussels Summit

  • 3 October 2005: Start of theNegotiationsbetweenTurkeyandthe EU

  • 20 October 2005: Start of the ScreeningProcess

  • 13 October 2006: Endof the ScreeningProcess

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


The process of accession negotiations between turkey and the eu

Theprocess of AccessionNegotiationsbetweenTurkeyandthe EU

Negotiationsfor 1 chapterweretemporarilyopenedandclosedafterwards.

  • ScienceandResearch

    Negotiationsfor 12 chapterwereopened but closurecriteriatoallthosenegotiationswereimposedbtthe EU.

  • Business andIndustryPolicy,

  • Statistics,

  • Financial Control,

  • Consumer andHealthProtection,

  • Trans-European Networks,

  • IntellectualPropertyLaw,

  • CompanyLaw,

  • FreeMovement of Capital,

  • Information Society and Media,

  • Taxation,

  • Environment,

  • Food Safety, Veterinary and Plant Health

    Positionpapers of Turkeyfor 2 negotiationswereforwardedtothe EU. EU CommonPositionPaper is expectedto be announced.

  • EducationandCulture,

  • EconomicandMonetaryPolicy

    Fortheopening of 8 chaptersopeningcriterias of the EU haveto be met byTurkey.

    Inallotherchapters, ScreeningReportsareexpectedto be announcedbythe EU.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Trade between turkey and the eu

TradebetweenTurkeyandthe EU

*January-March

Source: Data Source of the Ministry of Economy

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Fta countries

FTA Countries

  • Egypt

  • Albania

  • Georgia

  • Montenegro

  • Serbia

  • Chile

  • Jordan

  • South Korea

  • Lebanon*

  • Mauritius***

    (*) Agreementsthatare in theapprovalprocess

    (**) Pending

    (***) Willenterintoforce on 1st June 2013

  • EFTA (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein)

  • Israel

  • Macedonia

  • Croatia

  • Bosnia and Herzegovina

  • Palestine

  • Tunisia

  • Morocco

  • Syria (**)

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Trade with fta countries

Tradewith FTA Countries

  • Ourexportsto FTA Countriesincreased %7.2 in 2012.

  • The share of FTA Countries in total exports reached%9.6.

  • Turkeyrecorded a tradesurplus of 3.9 billion USD in 2012 withFTA Countries, whiletherewas a tradedeficit of 1.5 billion USD in 2002.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Economic outlook

TradeRepresentativesAbroad

198 trade representatives from the Ministry are serving in 105 locations and 8 offices abroad.

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Economic outlook

Locations of TradeRepresentatives

AMERİKA

Buenos Aires

Karakas

Mexico City

Ottava

Santiago

Vaşington

Houston

Los Angeles

New York

Sao Paulo

Şikago

Toronto

Miami

San Francisco

Seattle

AFRİKA

Kahire

Nairobi

Pretoria

Rabat

Trablus

Tunus

Kazablanka

Abuja

Addis Ababa

Akra

Cezayir

Dakar

Darüsselam

Hartum

İskenderiye

ASYA

Taşkent

Tokyo

Ulan Bator

Yeni Delhi

Almatı

Guangzhou

Hong Kong Karaçi

Mumbai

Şangay

Georgetown

GEORGETOWN

Astana

Aşkabat

Bangkok

Bişkek

Cakarta

Duşanbe

Hanoi

İslamabad

Kabil

Kuala Lumpur

Manila

Pekin

Seul

Singapur

AVRUPA/KAFKASYA

AB

DTÖ

OECD

Atina

Bakü

Belgrad

Berlin

Bern

Bratislava

Brüksel

Budapeşte

Bükreş

Dublin

Helsinki

Kiev

Kişinev

Kopenhag

Lahey

Lizbon

Lefkoşa

Londra Lubliyana

Madrid

Minsk

Moskova

Oslo

Paris

Podgorica

Prag

Priştine

Roma

Saraybosna

Sofya

Stokholm

Tiflis

Tiran

Üsküp

Varşova

Viyana

Zagreb

Barselona

Batum

Düsseldorf

Hamburg

Hannover

Kazan

Marsilya

Milano

Münih

Novorossisk

Odessa

Rotterdam

Selanik

St. Petersburg

Stutgart

Birmingham

Krasnodar

Novosibirsk

Yekaterinburg

ORTA DOĞU

Daimi Temsilci Yardımcılığı

Abu Dhabi

Amman

Bağdat

Beyrut

Doha

Kuveyt

Manama

Muskat

Riyad

Sana

Şam

Tahran

Tel Aviv

Basra

Cidde

Dubai

Erbil

Halep

Kudüs

Musul

Tebriz

Ticaret Müşavirliği

AVUSTRALYA

Ticaret Ataşeliği

Sidney

Melbourne

İrtibat Büroları

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


Projects with future prospects

ProjectswithFutureProspects

  • ExportOrientedProductionStrategyandInputSupplyStrategy

  • Market Access Strategy

  • SupportingExports

  • TradeRemedies

  • RestructuringtheIncentiveSystem

  • ImprovingtheInvestmentClimate

  • TradeAgreements

  • Next-GenerationFreeZones

  • Trade in Services andTurkishInvestmentsAbroad

  • Market SurveillanceandInspection

  • StrengtheningtheOrganizationAbroad

May 2013 Ministry of Economy


  • Login