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2012 Economic Outlook . Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast September 30, 2011 Beckie Holmes Diretor, Marketing Science, Cox Communications Arizona. Overview. The recession has left lasting damage Credit markets still fundamentally weak

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2012 economic outlook

2012 Economic Outlook

Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Breakfast

September 30, 2011

Beckie Holmes

Diretor, Marketing Science, Cox Communications Arizona

overview
Overview
  • The recession has left lasting damage
  • Credit markets still fundamentally weak
  • No political will for further fiscal support, unclear that monetary policy can help
  • Bottom line: Slow and painful recovery continues into 2012; risk of recession is high
the post recession economy more services government exports less investment durable goods
The Post-Recession Economy: More Services, Government, Exports, Less Investment, Durable Goods

Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Statistics

dropping out labor force participation at decades lows
Dropping Out: Labor Force Participation at Decades Lows

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

where is the job growth employment still down 5 from 2007 peak
Where Is the Job Growth?Employment still down 5% from 2007 Peak

’07-’11 cg

-5.7%

-14.5%

-23.5%

-5.7%

-2.3%

-7.7%

-1.7%

+8.2%

US Job Growth:

Lost: -8.6M, -6%

Regained +1.9M, +1%

*US Jobs lost: Nov-07 to Jan-10. US Jobs gained Jan-10 to Aug-11

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

5

us job openings vs employment july 2011 jobs being created different from those lost
US Job Openings vs Employment: July 2011Jobs Being Created Different From Those Lost

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

job creation entrepreneurship weak layoffs down sharply but expansions firm creation sluggish
Job Creation: Entrepreneurship WeakLayoffs Down Sharply But Expansions, Firm Creation Sluggish

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

deleveraging
Deleveraging?

Source: US Federal Reserve

massive fiscal stimulus closing the gap will be painful
Massive Fiscal StimulusClosing The Gap Will Be Painful

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

slide12
Balancing The Federal BudgetRevenues and Expenditures Must Be Addressed To Reach Historical Averages

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Recovery at risk
    • Risk of another recession now about 50%
    • Fiscal contraction will subtract 2-4 points from GDP growth
  • Good Signs
    • Household and corporate balance sheets healthy
    • Job creation has returned
  • Worrying Signs
    • No turnaround in hardest-hit sectors
    • Lasting damage to labor market
    • Congressional discord on deficit reduction
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