Early Thoughts on the Reference Design Report

1. Early Thoughts on theReference Design Report Peter H. Garbincius for the GDE Design / Cost Board ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

2. Barry showed the overall organization for RDR yesterday: ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

3. GDE Design/Cost Board: Peter H. Garbincius*, Chairman, Wilhelm Bialowons*, Atsushi Enomoto, Jean-Pierre Delahaye,Robert Kephart, Olivier Napoly, Ewan Paterson, Nan Phinney, Tetsuo Shidara*, and Nobuhiro Terunuma (* = Cost Engineering Group) With backup by the Accelerator Physics Group: Tor Raubenheimer, Nick Walker, Kaoru Yokoya ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

4. Design / Cost BoardMission Statementagain, from Barry, yesterday ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

5. Preparation of the Reference Design Report • Design Cost Board will provide guidance and structure, define depth requirements for the elements of cost effort, develop, advise, lead, review, and manage the preparation of RDR. • Area Systems Groups are led by full-time teams, coordinate Technical & Global System Groups, and are responsible for providing detailed designs, text, and cost estimates • Work together with Change Control Board, R&D Board, and Cost Engineering Team • Final Publication Deadline: end of 2006 ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

6. Interaction w Area System Groups • DCB soon has to tell them what we need. • Gotta make sure they have the manpower resources to do the job on the needed schedule. • Determine scope, schedules, goals, and deliverables. DCB definitely reviews and approves! will require monthly reports ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

7. the RDR Design Matrix ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

8. one-line attributes for cost est. • inclusive – can’t neglect anything important • “parametric” – quantities, escalation, overheads, labor rates, cost vs size or performance (e.g. gradient) • Barry - how does cost vary with a performance parameter? e.g. # bunches? • bottom-up – some elements, but many will be top-down, scaled, parametric, etc. • flexible – easily follow any scope changes !!! ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

9. Global issues will be important thanks Jonathan! • Can’t leave anything out: follow all items from conception, design, procurement, testing, inventory, material handling, installation, commissioning… • Be careful at boundaries, interfaces, and hand-offs between groups & systems • Performance requirements & specs will determine engineering effort at cost • Make sure you specify what you need, but don’t over-specify (driving up costs) ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

10. Quality of evolving cost estimate • Use whatever we have at any given time: e.g. today we have TESLA TDR & USLCTOS • Update as new and better info is available a “living” document • Need to carry along status & date of estimate & “basis of estimate” tag for each element • Goal is to get adequate and sufficient cost estimate for RDR deadline ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

11. We do have some prior examples • NLC Copper Book, TESLA TDR, GLC, and the USLC Options Study • We should review the approach and adopt what is good while improving what is not ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

12. Tor sent suggested WBS - PHG updated (112 active cost packages at this time)will expand to > 1000 internal elements ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

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15. OK, what did we leave out, what do we do next? • Exploit our collective project management experience, both within and external to ILC • Your input and collective wisdom are vital elements in this process! Please help us prepare the RDR! ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

16. End Presentation Backup Slides to Follow ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

17. What information do we need? • Scope (text/pix), Cost Estimates, Schedule • Schedule – input to cost estimates, e.g. needing 600 klystrons over 5 years may be substantially more expensive than same 600 klystrons over 8 years • Two funding models: (differ betw regions) technically limited (no time constraint) or flat funding – same # $ per year ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

18. Cost Estimate Elements • How many parallel estimates do we need (from Asia, Americas, Europe)? 3 or 4 or 5 site studies! • How do you handle multiple inputs into determining “value”? • World-market cost for common items, must do studies for unique elements ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

19. Industrial Cost Estimate Studies • TESLA – content and cost estimates confidential Dieter Trines promised copy of tender for studies I requested reports without costs – did not say yes/no • XFEL – will have CryoModule Assembly and RF Coupler studies back by mid-2006 content will be public, cost est confidential B. Petersen & T. Garvey will send copies of tender • U.S. Studies – cavities, CM, coupler, CFS ? not before latter half of 2006 at earliest • Asian Studies – content and status? ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

20. Will Industrial Studies be useful? • Will they be in time to be useful for RDR? • Will we get any lower level cost estimates? or just total cost of XFEL Main Linac? • How can we insure confidentiality of sensitive cost information? We surely don’t want to bias XFEL bidding! ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

21. Nitty-Gritty • What is in/out of cost estimate? • How do we present cost/value? as the lowest value (world-market) average value, range of estimate, probabilistic? 90% CL? • What about different SITE-dependent ests? • Gotta DOCUMENT what we are presenting & provide a translation guide for each region ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

22. WWS Group led by Hitoshi Yamamoto and Jim Brau • Preparing major physics sections: • The Physics case for the ILC • Detectors – incorporating 3 ideas • Simulations of machine & detector interaction: • Detector performance, resolution, backgrounds initially using model of beam: phase space, momentum spread, disruption, etc. will soon need fully simulated beam ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

23. Value (rather than cost) approach • Value is worth to the ILC project, rather than worth to contributing country • Approach developed by ITER (R. Aymar) vetted through Dan Lehman (US DOE) • Countries bid to provide some piece of project and not funds. Internally apply their own overheads, contingency, and labor rates to determine their cost, without changing value • Yes, ITER has common fund (some % of value assessment–acts as management contingency) ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

24. ITER used 100 cost packages • ITER assigned “value units” to only ~ 100 cost packages a pretty high level WBS roll-up many more lower level items had to have been cost estimated and rolled-up to form these packages • upon which member countries could bid • Does that number make sense for ILC-RDR? ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

25. Although some people will tell you that they know exactly how we should define “value”, • I don’t think we can possibly know at this beginning stage. • We don’t want to leave anything out, or close avenues, so we should gather all reasonable information from multiple studies, and combine/average/select only when we better understand the trade-offs of how to present cost or value. ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy

26. Program Management Tools • for Project Definition: EXCEL, SLAC WBS, MS Project • we will eventually need to migrate to a more powerful, integrated cost & schedule management system • Primavera is the choice at SLAC, ANL, JLab, but not at Fermilab, DESY, KEK, CERN, DESY maybe not so useful for project definition costs: licenses, business computing support “experts” (consultants), users (us) learning curves for us using sophisticated tool will show that we are serious players ILC-GDE Fracati, Italy