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Baljit Bains BSPS Conference, St Andrews 11 September 2007

Baljit Bains BSPS Conference, St Andrews 11 September 2007. Ethnic Group Labour Force Projections for London. Data Management and Analysis. Outline. Brief Background to EGPP Ethnic Majority Borough Ethnic composition Economically active composition EA Rates by ethnic group, sex

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Baljit Bains BSPS Conference, St Andrews 11 September 2007

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  1. Baljit BainsBSPS Conference, St Andrews11 September 2007 Ethnic Group Labour Force Projections for London Data Management and Analysis

  2. Outline • Brief Background to EGPP • Ethnic Majority • Borough Ethnic composition • Economically active composition • EA Rates by ethnic group, sex • 1991 and 2001 • Discussion: Methodology

  3. Background • Annual rounds of EGPP • 10 ethnic groups (aggregations of 16 Census categories) • 33 London boroughs, full age and gender • 2001 to 2026 • Constrained to GLA demographic projections (London Plan)

  4. Projection categories

  5. An Ethnic Majority in London by……

  6. 50%+ London Boroughs

  7. Map

  8. Components of Change 1

  9. Components of Change 2

  10. Changes in age structure

  11. Economically Active population: Changes in ethnic composition, 2006-2026

  12. Ethnic Group Labour Force Projections • Consideration when preparing methodology • Static assumptions • Postponement of child-bearing • Expansion of Higher education and increased participation • Other settlement/stability issues • Age/Cohort considerations • Where to set the bar?

  13. EA rates 1991 cf 2001

  14. EA rates 1991 cf 2001

  15. EA rates 1991 cf 2001

  16. EA rates 1991 cf 2001

  17. Capacity

  18. Discussion: Methodology • Expect the most change in younger age groups? • Will those with more capacity increase faster? • Future impact of further fertility increases. • Evidence of fertility decline amongst some ethnic groups? • Impacts of birth postponement (is this just White women?) • Impact of social change • Greater education participation • Move away from traditional roles of women • Equal work, equal pay • Changes in extended family relations • Cost of living, cost of child rearing

  19. Contact Baljit.Bains@london.gov.uk 020 7983 4613

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