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N, P and K for 2014: $300 Rent, $4 Corn and USEPA. John Grove and Edwin Ritchey Plant and Soil Sciences. Supply Nitrogen; adequate, plentiful natural gas, more capacity being built (net export?) Phosphate; adequate, industry consolidation (Mosaic, South America, supply control)

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N, P and K for 2014: $300 Rent, $4 Corn and USEPA

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N, P and K for 2014:$300 Rent, $4 Corn and USEPA

John Grove and Edwin Ritchey

Plant and Soil Sciences


Supply

Nitrogen; adequate, plentiful natural gas, more capacity being built (net export?)

Phosphate; adequate, industry consolidation (Mosaic, South America, supply control)

Potash; always adequate, but Russian cartel broken (for now), Urakali versus Belaruskali (lost mines, CEO-house arrest), 75 start-ups “on hold”, including BHP’s $14 billion Jansen/Canada mine, Belaruskali just announced $300/ton fob

2014 Nutrient Management Context

Various industry sources; Wall Street J.


Demand

Driven by nutrient removal

Driven by price?

2014 Nutrient Management Context


Grain Crop Nutrient Removal

Murdock and Ritchey, 2013, AGR-1


Demand

Driven by nutrient removal

Driven by price?

Nutrient removal

A tale of two years

2014 Nutrient Management Context


Nutrient Removal – Corn – 2012

Initial STP = 50, STK = 250

AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20

2012 Ky corn yield - 68 bu/A

Removal: 48, 27, and 24 lb N, P2O5, K2O/A

Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A

End of 2012: estimated STP = 51, STK=251

AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 for 2013

Ritchey, 2013


Nutrient Removal – Corn – 2013

Initial STP = 50, STK = 250

AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20

2013 Ky corn yield - 173 bu/A

Removal: 121, 69, and 61 lb N, P2O5, K2O/A

Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A

End of 2013: estimated STP = 42, STK=244

AGR-1 recommends 40 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20 for 2014

Ritchey, 2013


Nutrient Removal – Irrigated Corn

Initial STP = 50, STK = 250

AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P2O5 & 30 lb K20

Irrigated corn yield - 250 bu/A

Removal: 175, 100, and 88 lb N, P2O5, K2O/A

Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition-removal/A

End of year: estimated STP = 36, STK=238

AGR-1 recommends 60 lb P2O5 & 40 lb K20 for next year

Ritchey, 2013


Soil Sample to Verify!?

Year 1 = 1990

Year 23 = 2012

Sikora, 2013


9971 samples averaging 69 lb STP/A

Sikora, 2013


9971 samples averaging 256 lb STK/A

Sikora, 2013


The lb P2O5/A required to change soil test P by 1 lb/A – as related to the initial soil test P level – after an 8 week lab incubation.

Thom and Dollarhide, 1987


Price – should be influenced by supply, demand and fertilizer/crop price ratio

2014 Nutrient Management Context


DTN, 2013


Buying has been off.

Waiting for further price

Decline.

DTN, 2013


Price – should be influenced by supply, demand and fertilizer/crop price ratio, but the industry knows you had high removal.

Nitrogen

the N industry monitors corn prices and pricing; seek to set price of N/lb at about 1/10 the price of corn/bu

delivery timing and storage capacity can influence N pricing, especially anhydrous

Near future: expect a bit more supply driven pricing, especially N and P (K ??)

2014 Nutrient Management Context


Nutrient Budget Consequences 2012-13Sharpen Your Pencil

Purdue Coop. Extn. 2012-13


Follow recommendations

For N: AGR-1 gives a range in recommended rates for the situation. Move to the high end of the range when the fertilizer N/grain price ratio is favorable (low).

For lime, P and K: soil test based approach is best

For S and the micronutrients (Zn, B, Mn): know your likely need. Verify with soil test and plant tissue analysis.

2014 Nutrient Recommendations


Adjust Corn N Rate According To The Economic Season?

Murdock and Ritchey, 2013, AGR-1


The “Right” Recommendation

Competing philosophies of recommendation:

SLAN, Maintenance, Soil Nutrient Balance

UK: Sufficient Level of Available Nutrients (SLAN)

Crop response based/fertilize for the crop;

Buildup (at low test levels);

Maintenance (at medium-high test levels);

None (at high-very high test levels).

Recommendation Philosophies


Wrong Recommendation = Real Loss

Real Money = Get a Second Opinion?

Murdock, 1992, AGR-151


Future Nutrient Challenges?

A Hydrologic ‘Short-Circuit’?


A Different “Yield”

Is your soil test

program ready?

1 kg P/km2/yr = 0.009 lb P/acre/yr

10 kg P/km2/yr = 0.09 lb P/acre/yr

100 kg P/km2/yr = 0.9 lb P/acre/yr

USGS


110

100

90

80

High

Yield (% of maximum)

Med

70

60

Low

50

40

0

1

5

30

60

Soil Test P (lbs/acre)

Soil Test P (lb/acre)

V.low

Agronomic Threshold/Critical Value

This UK Knows - Well

Sikora, pers. comm.


110

100

90

Yield (% of maximum)

80

Limited Risk

Risk

of P runoff

of P runoff

70

60

50

Environmental Threshold

This UK Does Not Know Well

40

???

Soil Test P (lbs/acre)

Sikora, pers. comm.


Predicting Water Soluble P from Mehlich III P on Twenty Kentucky Soils

D’Angelo, pers. comm.


Water Quality and PUE = Win-Win

Greater phosphorus use efficiency (PUE) improves water quality

Strategies:

P placement/banding below the soil surface

Additives: ???

The future:

Tie up/fix available fertilizer and manure P at the soil surface – gypsum and iron wastes

Move available P, chemically, a bit deeper into the soil, perhaps just 1 inch below the surface


Water Quality and NUE:

Guarding Against N Losses:

Volatilization of Ammonia (NH3)

Leaching of Nitrate (NO3-)

Denitrification into N2 and N2O

Immobilization into Organic N

John Sawyer, Iowa State University


IPNI, Fairchild

Water Quality and NUE:

Guarding Against N Losses:

Delayed/Split N Timing – reduce the probability

of denitrification and leaching

Fairchild, IPNI


Water Quality and NUE:

Guarding Against N Losses:

Reducing N Immobilization

and NH3 volatilization: N

Placement Below The Surface


Maintaining Sufficient Nitrogen

Increasing the N rate – “insurance” N may not be an option. Have you evaluated the alternatives? Don’t have to use steel & time.

Reduce the probability of denitrification and leaching with a nitrification inhibitor

nitrapyrin/N-Serve/Instinct, DCD, Super U)

Reduce volatilization with an inhibitor

NBPT/Agrotain, other NBPT formulations (jar test?)

New inhibitors? Not in short-term. But further out there is more to look for.


N and P management options may change.

Can you reduce your N or P application rate by 5, 15 or 25%?

Sometimes an ‘on-farm’ test is needed.

Your N (P) rate

Your N (P) rate + product/practice X

Your N (P) rate + extra N (P); $N(P) =cost of X

Your N (P) rate – the N (P) it takes to pay for X; total $= cost of your old N (P) rate alone

Peace of mind comes at a price.

Take-Home Messages


Thank You!

Questions?


1752 samples averaging 101 lb STP/A

Sikora, 2013


1752 samples averaging 301 lb STP/A

Sikora, 2013


1488 samples averaging 70 lb STP/A

Sikora, 2013


1488 samples averaging 315 lb STK/A

Sikora, 2013


Schwab & Murdock

75 lb N/A, except control


Norman,

Univ. of

Arkansas


Corn Grain Yields - 2009


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