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Migration and Fuel Use in Rural Mexico. Dale T. Manning UC-Davis. USAEE/IAEE North American Conference July 2013. Why care about fuel use?. Health Biomass fuel causes bronchitis and other lung diseases, heart disease, premature death—US EPA Environmental impacts

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Migration and fuel use in rural mexico

Migration and Fuel Use in Rural Mexico

Dale T. Manning

UC-Davis

USAEE/IAEE North American Conference

July 2013


Why care about fuel use
Why care about fuel use?

  • Health

    • Biomass fuel causes bronchitis and other lung diseases, heart disease, premature death—US EPA

  • Environmental impacts

    • Forest depletion, erosion, loss of habitat/biodiversity

    • National parks less effective if people depend park’s resources

  • Climate change

    • Wood: 0.39 kg CO2 per kWh

    • Coal: 0.37 kg CO2 per kWh

    • Kerosene: 0.26 kg CO2 per kWh

  • Quality of life

    • Time-consuming activity, TOC

  • http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/co2-emission-fuels-d_1085.html


    2 theories of fuel choice
    2 theories of fuel choice

    • Fuel ladder

    • Fuel stacking


    Main contributions
    Main contributions

    • Present theoretical model of fuel choice

    • Use model to show how migration changes fuel-choice incentives

    • Show empirical impact of out-migration on household fuel use


    Research question
    Research question

    • How does rural out-migration affect fuel choice in rural Mexico?

    Important because rural-urban migration is a part of development process!


    Theoretical framework
    Theoretical framework

    • Household producer

      • Home-cooked food

      • Agriculture

  • Given capital

    • Woodstove, gas stove

  • Chooses inputs

    • Labor/leisure

    • ENERGY SOURCE—Firewood or gas?


  • Theoretical framework1
    Theoretical framework

    • Non-separable model

      • Imperfect labor markets

      • Non-marketed resource, home-cooked food

  • Household makes consumption and labor allocation decisions simultaneously

  • Energy inputs chosen to minimized cost of meeting energy needs required for optimized consumption

    • Cost of gas: market price

    • Cost of firewood: value of time


  • Migration and labor allocation
    Migration and labor allocation

    $

    Lto

    Ag labor

    Firewood Collection


    Migration and labor allocation1
    Migration and labor allocation

    $

    VMP in Ag (market price)

    VMP in resource collection (non-market)

    Lto

    Ag labor

    Firewood Collection


    Migration and labor allocation2
    Migration and labor allocation

    $

    VMP in Ag (market price)

    VMP in resource collection (non-market)

    Lto

    Ag labor

    Firewood Collection


    Migration and labor allocation3
    Migration and labor allocation

    $

    VMP in Ag (market price)

    VMP in resource collection (non-market)

    Lto

    Ag labor

    Firewood Collection


    Migration and labor allocation4
    Migration and labor allocation

    $

    What happens when a migrant goes to the US?

    Lto

    Ag labor

    Firewood Collection


    Migration and labor allocation5
    Migration and labor allocation

    $

    1. Less total time available

    Ltm

    Ag labor

    Firewood Collection


    Migration and labor allocation6
    Migration and labor allocation

    $

    2. Demand for firewood can change

    Ltm

    Ag labor

    Firewood Collection


    Migration and labor allocation7
    Migration and labor allocation

    $

    Theoretically ambiguous net impact

    (will likely decrease)

    Ltm

    Ag labor

    Firewood Collection


    Theoretically ambiguous
    Theoretically ambiguous

    • Investigate empirically

    • Rural Mexico

      • National Household Survey of Rural Mexico

      • Representative of ruralMexico

      • 80 communities, 14 states, 5 regions

      • 1543 households


    Rural population of mexico
    Rural Population of Mexico

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html

    2010 rural population: 25,179,916


    As a percentage of total
    As a percentage of total

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html


    Econometric estimation
    Econometric estimation

    Natural log of days per year collecting firewood

    :

    Indigenous

    Education

    Year

    Household size

    Hh income

    Community wage

    =1 if household has member in US

     IV with networks


    Econometric estimation1
    Econometric estimation

    Natural log yearly gas expenditure

    :

    Indigenous

    Education

    Year

    Household size

    Hh income

    Community wage

    =1 if household has member in US

     IV with networks




    Results2
    Results

    Without a migrant, spend about 3 times as many person-days per year collecting firewood!

    Average is ~121 days




    Results5
    Results

    Approximately double gas expenditure!




    Results8
    Results

    Increase probability of having a gas stove by ~33%!

    Impact on gas expenditure larger when controlling for selection (Heckman)




    Results summar y
    Results summary

    • Households with US migrant spend less time collecting firewood

    • Spend more on gas

    • More likely to have a gas stove

    • But they don’t stop collecting firewood


    Implications for policy
    Implications for policy

    • Gas stove investment can be an obstacle

    • Households will use gas if it is cheaper

      • Can lower price of gas (e.g., improve delivery)

      • Increase perceived cost of firewood (health effects)

      • Increase opportunity cost of time

  • Households may add gas into fuel mix without switching completely

  • Beware of firewood markets

    • Especially if common-property resource

    • Conventional management may become easier



  • Background
    Background

    • Fuel use/firewood collection connected to other sectors

      • Agriculture

      • Labor market development

  • Proposed theories:

    • Fuel ladder

    • Fuel stacking


  • Data

    • National Household Survey of Rural Mexico

      • PRECESAM, Rural Economies of the Americas and Pacific Rim (REAP)

  • 2002, 2007

  • Representative of rural Mexico—populations from 500 to 2499 people

  • 80 communities, 14 states, 5 regions

  • 1543 households, 10 states in 2010



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