1 / 36

A sustainable energy system A prospective analysis

A sustainable energy system A prospective analysis. Carlos Gascó Prospective Department Iberdrola Renewable Energies. Index. Introduction Electricity generation sources & investment criteria Wind geographic analysis Main Conclusions. Drivers for the development of renewable energies.

ocean
Download Presentation

A sustainable energy system A prospective analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. A sustainable energy system A prospective analysis Carlos Gascó Prospective Department Iberdrola Renewable Energies IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  2. Index • Introduction • Electricity generation sources & investment criteria • Wind geographic analysis • Main Conclusions IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  3. Drivers for the developmentof renewable energies A number of advantages have led to the definition of important renewable energy development targets world-wide Some public achievements • Kyoto Protocol (1997) • 5.2% reduction in total emissions by 2010 compared to 1990 levels. Basic role of renewable energies. • EU Renewables Directive(*) • 12% consumption of primary energy from renewable sources in 2010, equivalent to 22.1% of electric consumption • National Plans - Spain • Spanish Electric Power Act 1997: 12% primary • energy consumption in 2010 • 29.4% of gross electricity consumption from renewable energies by 2010 ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY ENERGY SECURITY • Lowest possible cost • Essential for wellbeing and competitiveness • EU Green Paper on “Energy Security” (2001) • 50% of energy dependency in the EU exceeded. ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES • Climate change (Kyoto agreements) • Sustainable use of natural resources (*) The European Council of Energy Ministers, on the 23rd April 2006, increased the renewable target to 15% for 2015 IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  4. Economic efficiency: Correlation between economy and energy • In the last decade, accumulated real GDP growth reached 30%, and consumption of primary energy, 43%. These figures imply a substantial emissions increase GDP and Electricity Demand Growth (1971-2005) Sufficient energy supply, together with limited emissions will create difficulties in economic performance, particularly industrial competitiveness Energy is the “fuel” of the economy. It is necessary to count on clean and cheap power to finance a sustainable and competitive model in an ever globalized economy 3.6% 3.3% Sources: International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook and internal data IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  5. Environmental issuesClimate change and Kyoto commitments • Climate change is now one of the world's main problems. CO2 emissions are rapidly increasing, and Earth's temperature seems to be raising* • Under these assumptions, the governments of developed countries began to take the initial measures. Greenhouse emissions must fall by 5,2% until 2012 vs. 1990 levels: " Kyoto commitment" * There are opinions against this idea IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  6. UK Luxemburg Denmark EU Germany Finland Italy France Holand Austria Belgium Greece Sweden Portugal Ireland Spain Environmental issues Climate change: International commitments Regional shares of CO2 emissions, 2003 1990 - 1992 - 1997 - 2001 - 2002 - 2005 - Climate change panel Río de Janeiro Summit KYOTO Protocol Marrakesh Summit Johannesburg Summit Kyoto Protocol comes into force * Includes international aviation and international marine bunkers Kyoto participation map European kyoto commitments IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  7. Evolution of greenhouse emissions in Spain Greenhouse emissions have increased in Spain in recent years, climbing 40% since 1990 Kyoto commitment Greenhouse emissions, 1990 Greenhouse emissions, 2003 Base year (1990) Total CO2 equivalent = 286,1 MT Year (2003) Total CO2 equivalent = 402,3 MT CO2 emissions are rising in Spain Source: Ministry of the Environment. General Secretariat for Pollution Prevention and Climate Change IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  8. Evolution of greenhouse emissions in France Greenhouse emissions in France were, at the end of 2003, below 1990 levels (reference year) Evolution of greenhouse emissions and projections (2003) Emissions per sector (2004) (1) Kyoto commitment (2) 2008-2012 period (1) Pessimistic scenario Low emissions of energy (with annual variability according to rainfall), industry and agriculture, compensate the increase of transports emissions (2) Optimistic scenario * Projections depend on evolution of “Plant Climat” Source: Rendez-vous climat 2005 IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  9. Energy security: growth of demand, power dependency and associated emissions • Worldwide growth of energy demand in recent years creates geopolitical difficulties • Spanish case: because of growing energy demand (well above GDP growth), geographic dependency, already at 78% • Causes, in addition, the increase of emissions, at the moment 50% above 1990. EU-30 Dependence by energy source Oil Natural gas Coal Total Source: Green paper “Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply” by the European Commission, Nov. 2000 IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  10. Index • Introduction • Electricity generation sources & investment criteria • Wind geographic analysis • Main Conclusions IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  11. Electricity generation sources Sources of electricity production are limited, so a sustainable model has to be defined by a mix that takes into consideration the characteristics of each one: • Thermal power stations: • Conventional Thermal power stations (coal) • Combined Cycle power stations (natural gas) • Fuel power stations • Nuclear power stations. • Renewable Energies: • Hidroelectric • Wind energy • Biomass • Solar energies • Other IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  12. Renewable energies Renewable energies are based on a natural recurrent resource In order to take advantage of this renewable energy, we transform these sources of energy into electricity, through renewable power stations Wind Water Sun Electricity Biomass Waves and tides Geothermal Biofuels IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  13. Renewable energies Wind: • Commercial wind turbines today up to 2 MW each and larger turbines are on the way. At the end of 2005 there were almost 60,000 MW in operation worldwide, growing at a 30% rate annualy, with perspective of 500,000 MW in 2020 • Cost per MWh has fallen by • 50% over the last 15 years • Grid integration is now • “the challenge” IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  14. Renewable energiesHydroelectric power stations • Water power station: part of the river´s flow is derived into a turbine that porduces electric power. Some 720,000 MW installed globally (large hydro) and around 60,000 mini-hydro • Hydroelectric grows at a very slow pace, compared to other types of renewable technologies • Potencial growth only in developing countries. Technically viable potencial of large hydro is around 3,770,000 MW IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  15. Renewable energies Solar energies Solar Thermal: Photovoltaic: • Low temperature solar thermal: collect solar radiation to heat water mostly for domestic applications. More than 15 millions m2 installed • High temperature solar thermal: radiation is used for the heating of a fluid and the production of steam. That steam will then be used for power production. • In phase of takeoff; 300 MW in operation in Mojave Dessert (USA) and potencial of 10,000 from 2020 globally • Sunlight is transformed directly into power by the photovoltaic effect • Estimates show around 3,000 MW installed globally • Photovoltaic should reach 22,000 MW in 2020 IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  16. Renewable energies Biomass: • The energy is obtained through the direct burning of agriculture, forest and cattle waste, or even using specific energetic crops • There are several energetic applications by biomass, such as electric generation • Little developed: about 14,000 MW in operation worldwide but enormous potential, around 200,000 MW in 2020 Biofuels: • Alternative fuels produced by biomass with less emissions than fossil fuels. This fuels production to date remains limited. 20 million ton. produced globally in 2003 Bioethanol Biodiesel IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  17. Renewable energies Geothermal: • Heat or hot water from earth's interiorprovides the force that spins the turbine generators and produces electricity • The used geothermal water is then returned down an injection well into the reservoir to be reheated, to maintain pressure, and to sustain the reservoir Waves: • These devices, now at experimental phase, generate electricity from the bobbing or pitching action of a floating object. The object can be mounted to a floating raft or to a device fixed on the ocean floor • 8,900 MW installed by the end of 2004. IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  18. Renewable technologies Advantages : • Use natural resources (sun, water, wind, heat - geothermal -, biomass, waves, etc), unaffected by geopolitical issues or supply tensions (free and home-grown fuel) • Diminish energy dependency • They are clean technologies that produce no greenhouse emissions • Some renewable power stations are compatible with other land uses Disadvantages: • Investment costs per installed KW are higher than conventional technologies. However, distortions created by subsidies and the internalization of external costs need consideration • Location, requiring natural resources, may be far from the demand centers • Its production may be intermittent, depending on natural resources conditions IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  19. Investment criteria There are two main factors that drive investments on renewable energies: • Natural conditions: each case requires an analysis in order to attain a reasonable energetic and economic model. • An adequate support system is the main factor to develop renewable energies. IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  20. Energy generation sources costs Comparison of production costs 2005 estimates Source: EU Commission, DrKW Equity research estimates IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  21. Requirements Without internalising environmental and other costs, renewable generation, a capital intensive business, is more expensive than conventional technologies. As a result, investment requires support systems. An effective support framework must be based on three basic pillars: • Predictability: the system must guarantee the remuneration over the life of the asset (long-term perspective, with profitability over 20 years). • Stability: the legal framework must be based on criteria of non retroactivity. • Profitability: defining a sufficiency scenario, necessary for the development of investments. The choice of the appropriate support model is the KEY IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  22. RE Country Attractiveness Index in RE for Near-Term (1)           IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  23. Index • Introduction • Electricity generation sources & investment criteria • Wind geographic analysis • Main Conclusions IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  24. Wind geographic analysis IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  25. Wind geographic analysis IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  26. Wind geographic analysis IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  27. Wind geographic analysis IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  28. Wind geographic analysis IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  29. Europe Wind geographic analysis • European Union strongest market historically • Record year in 2005: over 6,000 MW of installed capacity • Increase of 18% in cumulative capacity • 10-year annual growth average: 32% • Traditionally driven by Germany, Spain, Denmark • Now: new markets emerging (France, Portugal, Italy, NL, UK) • Driven by EU & national RE policies IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  30. North America Wind geographic analysis • 2005 record year in US: over 2,400 MW added • Total: 9,149 MW • Increase in cumulative capacity of 35% • In the past: unstable political framework (PTC) leading to boom and bust cycles • But now, three-year window for stability (up to 2007) • By Dec. 2005, some20 states enacting Renewable Portfolio Standards • Continuation of boom expected for 2006 & 2007 IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  31. Latin America: Brazil Wind geographic analysis • Now: 44% renewables, mainly hydro • Total wind potential estimated at 29 GW • Most promising region: North-East (poor water but strong wind resource) • Proinfa programme passed in 2002 for biomass, wind and small hydro >> guarantees power sale contracts for 3,300 MW of projects • By Dec. 2005: only 29 MW installed, but over 1,400 MW expected by 2007 Mexico • Abundant resource: estimated potential of 30,000 MW • Current installed capacity: 3,2 MW • AMDEE expects 3,000 MW by 2014 • No government incentives, no clear regulatory framework to allow for private sector involvement (government monopoly) • 2005: new provision for Federal Tax Laws • ->100% depreciation on capital in the first year for all investments in RE • New renewable energy law approved by Congress • It establishes Renewable Energy Utilization Programme & 8% target for RE by 2012 IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  32. Asia: China Wind geographic analysis • Wind potential estimated at 253 GW • Record year in 2005: nearly 500 MW new capacity • Total: 1,260 MW • New Renewable Energy Law in force since Jan 2006 • National target for RE • Feed-in tariffs support system likely to be chosen • Nation-wide cost sharing system • National find for promoting RE development • For wind: bidding procedure to determine price • Government target for wind: 30,000 MW by 2020 Japan • Cumulative capacity: 1,078 MW • Renewable Portfolio Standard since April 2003: 1,35% of electricity produced by RE by 2010. • -> very low target • Other market incentives (price paid for RE power; capital grants) • Japanese market has seen slow down in past years due to severe weather conditions (typhoon, lightning, turbulence) and grid infrastructure problems • Government target for wind: 3,000 by 2010 IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  33. Australia Wind geographic analysis • Very good resource • Exponential growth in 2005: 328 MW installed, bringing total up to 708 MW • 6,000 MW in planning • No strong political will at federal level, but promising developments at state level, especially Victoria • Asia Pacific Clean Development and Climate Pact (AP6) could provide new impetus to RE development • GLOBAL WINDPOWER 2006 conference in Adelaide in to be held next week IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  34. Index • Introduction • Electricity generation sources & investment criteria • Wind geographic Analysis • Main Conclusions IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  35. Conclusions • The question is: what type of energy generation is better? • Hydroelectric in Brazil or Morocco? • Is it the same to speak about natural gas in the UK or in Qatar? • Where are coal's costs higher? In Australia or in Spain? • Nuclear energy in France, Germany or in Iran? • Power generation's strengths or weaknesses closelydepend upon the electricity infrastructure and needs of each country, as well as the country's overall conditions • Which would be the most suitable model? • Fuel • Coal • Combined cycle • Wind • Nuclear • Hydroelectric = IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  36. A sustainable energy system A prospective analysis Carlos GascóProspective Department Iberdrola Renewable Energies IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

More Related