Climate Change, Uncertainty and Forecasts of Global to Landscape Ecosystem Dynamics

1. Climate Change, Uncertainty and Forecasts of Global to Landscape Ecosystem Dynamics Ronald P. Neilson and Linda Joyce USDA Forest Service

2. Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature: 1000 to 2100 Similar to Glacial – Interglacial Temperature Change Uncertainty is due to both Emissions Scenarios and Climate Models But note the slope of Past Compared to Future Temperature Change • 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections

3. A climate change risk analysis for world ecosystems Scholze et al. 2006. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. Later Browndown Early Greenup LPJ DGVM 16 Climate Scenarios Gt/yr Carbon Sink Source Global Simulated Ecosystem Carbon Change (Pg) MAPSS Team, In Prep. MC1 DGVM 3 Climate Scenarios Gt Carbon Sink Source

4. Percent Change in Biomass Burned MAPSS Team, In Prep. CSIRO_MK3 A2 Fire Increases Across the Western U.S. But, Look at the Boreal Forest

5. Percent Change in Total Ecosystem Carbon MAPSS Team, In Prep. CSIRO_MK3 A2 What will happen to Timber and Carbon Markets? Markets Influence Adaptation The West Sequesters Carbon!

6. MAPSS Simulated Vegetation Distribution Current Climate Future Climate (CGCM1) Future Woody and Grass Expansion in the West Enhance Carbon Storage, and Catastrophic Wildfire, But…

7. Average Biomass Burned CGCM2a (2050-2099) In the Future The West gets Woodier, and It burns a lot more!... But, look at the East!

8. LPJ DGVM 16 Climate Scenarios Different Ecological Model Different Climate Scenarios Same Changes in Fire Red = + Fire Green = - Fire Changes relative to Base Period 1961 – 1990 Scholze et al. 2006. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.

9. Current Vegetation (1961-1990) Suppressed Fire MC1 DGVM MAPSS Team, In Prep. CGCM2-A2 Scenario With Fire Suppressed Fire

10. Management Toolbox • Current modeling tools: Most, such as FVS, TELSA and VDDT, cannot use climate. • Re-build tools to be ‘climate smart’, yet to retain their ‘look and feel’. Workshops between scientists and managers to design and refine these tools. • Current management strategies have underlying assumptions about climate – climate is static, the past a good predictor of the future. • Reframe management strategies and add new field experiments – identify underlying assumptions, test regeneration, restoration techniques under a changing climate.

11. Management Implications(personal musings) • Management Goals face an uncertain Future • The Future will NOT echo the Past • Instead,… Manage Change, per se • Desired function may supercede ‘Desired future condition’ • Near-term strategies • High-valued resources -- forestall effects, protection • Desired ecosystems – intensive management to maintain • Long-term strategies -- Improve resilience of ecosystems to rapid change, e.g. • Keep forest density below water-limited carrying capacity • Plant or Manage diversity rather than homogeneous monocultures • Fire, carbon and other policies may be at cross-purposes demanding creative management of change

12. Average Biomass Burned Historical (1950-1999) This includes NO Fire Suppression