Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in central america
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Seminar series on climate change and forest management, BC Ministry of Forests and Range Future Forest Ecosystem Initiative. November 6, 2008. Teleconference between Canada and Costa Rica. Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in Central America.

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Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in Central America

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Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in central america

Seminar series on climate change and forest management, BC Ministry of Forests and Range Future Forest Ecosystem Initiative.

November 6, 2008. Teleconference between Canada and Costa Rica

Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in Central America

Bruno Locatelli, CIRAD-CIFOR, Indonesia

Pablo Imbach, CATIE, Costa Rica

EuropeAid/ENV/2004-81719


Climate change and ecosystem migration

Climate change and ecosystem migration

  • CC modifies location of suitable environments for plants (Hannah et al., 2002)

  • Future distribution of ecosystems depends on the ability of plants to migrate (Pitelka et al., 1997; Kirilenko et al., 2000)

    • High migration rates (>1000 m/yr) required to adapt to CC (Malcolm et al., 2002)

  • Many studies on CC and ecosystems consider unlimited dispersal or no dispersal (Pearson, 2006)

  • Uncertainties on migration rates of trees:

    • During post-glacial warming

      • 100’s to 1000’s m/yr(Pearson 2006, Malcolm et al., 2002),

      • less than 100 m/yr (McLachlan et al., 2005)

    • Models of current migration

      • Around 100 m/yr (Dyer, 1995)


Biological corridors and protected areas

Protected

Area

  • Their role in migration under CC depends on spatial patterns

  • Latitudinal and altitudinal gradients

    • Is it so simple?

Corridor

Direction of species movement due to CC

Biological corridors and protected areas

  • Landscape alteration may reducemigration capacity(Pitelka, 1997)

    • Altering dispersal rate

    • Reducing suitable habitat for successful colonization

  • Corridors can enhance landscape connectivity between valuable vegetation areas(e.g. protected areas)


Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in central america

Can corridors facilitate ecosystem migration between protected areas in a context of CC?

Case of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridorin Costa Rica


Study site

Protected Areas

Biological Corridors

Mexico

  • The Mesoamerican Biological Corridor (MBC)

    • Regional initiative

    • Conceptualized and agreedupon in 1997

    • Under progressive implementation

Belize

Guatemala

Honduras

El Salvador

Nicaragua

Costa Rica

Panama

(CCAD-UNDP/GEF, 2002)

Study site

  • Costa Rica

    • Biological richness & conservation policies

    • “Increasing isolation of protected areas may prevent them from functioning as an effective network” (Sánchez-Azofeifa et al., 2003)


Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in central america

Nicaragua

N

Caribbean Sea

Costa Rica

Protected Areas

Mesoamerican corridor

Pacific Ocean

Panama


Approach and model assumptions 1 2

Approach and model assumptions (1/2)

  • Cellular Automata

  • Simple representation of vegetation

    • Model ≠ evolution of vegetation

    • Model = landscape connectivity

    • Vegetation types =Holdridge life zones

Holdridge

  • Each vegetation type is composed of 5 groups of species with different migration rates

    • From slow (100 m/yr) to fast-moving (2000 m/yr)


Model assumptions 2 2

Model assumptions (2/2)

  • Migration is possible through contiguous pixels with vegetation

  • 4 scenarios

    • No migration

    • Migration

      • With vegetation only in protected areas

      • With vegetation in protected areas and corridors

      • With vegetation everywhere (“Eden”)


Algorithm

sp adapted to lzcurrent?

No: presence:=presence/2

Yes: sp already present in px?

Yes: presence:=presence*2

(with upper bound

due to carrying capacity)

No: sp in neighbourhood? (radius=migration(ft))

Yes: presence:=0.25

No: presence:=0

Algorithm

Pixel px

Species spft,lz

Controller

Initialize

Estimate 1990 Life Zone (lz1990)

Create baseline presence:

presence(px,spft,lz1990)=1

Run

Estimate CurrentLife Zone (lzcurrent )

Next decade

Updateindicators


Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in central america

Nicaragua

Caribbean Sea

Costa Rica

Pacific Ocean

Panama

Nicaragua

Caribbean Sea

Costa Rica

Pacific Ocean

Panama

Protected Areas

Biological Corridors

Data

  • Scales

    • Spatial = 2.5 arc min (around 4.6 km x 4.6 km)

    • Temporal = Decades, from 1990 to 2050

  • Climate and altitude

    • WorldClim dataset (Hijmans et al., 2005):

      • Altitude, Monthly Precipitation and Temperature

    • Current and future

      • IPCC scenario A2

      • HadCM3 climate model

  • Protected Areas and Biological Corridors

    • CCAD map, 2001


Results and discussion

Results and discussion

12°N

Life zone

movement

8°N

86°W

81.5°W


Effects of landscape connectivity on ecosystem adaptation to climate change in central america

Nicaragua

N

Caribbean Sea

Pacific Ocean

High impacts

Low impacts

Panama

Protected areas most sensitive to CC(no migration scenario)


Protected areas under different migration scenarios

Protected areas under different migration scenarios

Effect of corridors


Which protected areas benefit more from corridors

Which protected areas benefit morefrom corridors?


Which corridors contribute more to the adaptation of protected areas

Which corridors contribute moreto the adaptation of protected areas?


How to explain these results

How to explain these results?

Corridors and Areas not evaluated

Missing corridors?

Direction of Life Zone Movement

Important corridors (connecting isolated and vulnerable areas, in a good direction)

Already connected protected areas


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • Sensitivity of protected areas to CC

    • Especially isolated areas and in mountain and dry zones

  • Role of corridors for reducing vulnerability

  • Useful tool for:

    • Identifying vulnerable protected areas

    • Prioritizing corridors in a context of CC

  • Further steps:

    • Consider actual vegetation outside protected areas and corridors

    • Use different climate scenarios

    • Use different representations of ecosystem dynamics and migration

    • Perform sensitivity analysis


Thank you

Thank you!


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