1 / 70

John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

Inland Empire Forecast. John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records. 17.9%. Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time. 10.1%. 7.5%. 3.9%. Inland Empire: 3.9%. Inflation Worry. 3.6%. 1.9%.

moons
Download Presentation

John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Inland Empire Forecast . . . John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

  2. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records

  3. 17.9% Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time 10.1% 7.5% 3.9% Inland Empire: 3.9%

  4. Inflation Worry 3.6% 1.9%

  5. Yield Curve Recession: 2020 Likelihood Rising 2 Year to 10 Year 0.18%

  6. California Job Gains/Losses

  7. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth! Percent 2018e above 2007 I.E. CA US 15.8% v. 11.0% v. 8.6% 2018 Confession Forecast: 45,000 jobs 3.1% 4.7% Unemployment Actual YTD: 46,110 Jobs 3.1% 4.2% Unemployment

  8. Job Quality

  9. Job Growth by Region 2nd Largest 2018 Absolute Job Gain in So. CA!

  10. Local Job Growth,2018

  11. Long Term Forecasts

  12. Local Jobs, 2018

  13. Local Job Growth, 2018-2040

  14. Local Jobs, 2040e

  15. Inland Empire Population Greater Than 25 of 50 States

  16. Population, 2018

  17. Population Forecast, 2018-2045 2045: 6,119,497 1,111,783

  18. Population, 2045

  19. Other Key Facts

  20. Median Household Income, 2017

  21. Median Household Income, 2017Deducting Housing Costs Above IE

  22. Poverty: Falling With Job Creation 23.5% 16.4%

  23. Educational Levels: Slow Gains 46.3% 29.2%

  24. Short Term Forecasts

  25. $ Payroll Spent $ Payroll Spent $ Payroll Paid

  26. Health Care Job Growth 2011-2018 9.6% of Job Growth

  27. Median Health Care Pay: 2018 $62,363

  28. ACA Impact Health Care Demand & Quality of Life -60% Drop in Uninsured

  29. 2018 Forecast: 2018e 1,800 2019 Prospect: 2,000

  30. Logistics Job Growth 2011-2018 23.6% of Job Growth

  31. Median Logistics Pay: 2018 $47,946

  32. Skill Ladders Based on Education for PositionMedian Pay Warehousing, Inland Empire 2018

  33. E-Commerce Growth 14.5%

  34. Port Container VolumesRecord Levels

  35. Net Industrial Absorption 20.2 million

  36. Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6%

  37. Industrial Rates & Vacancies Lease Rates Per Square Foot Per Month, Sep-2018 Inland Empire $0.56 3.6% Ventura $0.72 3.0% Los Angeles $0.84 1.1% Orange $0.92 1.5% San Diego $0.94 4.1% Source: CB Richard Ellis

  38. Construction Locations

  39. Industrial Lease Rates Up 29.0%

  40. ONT Airport Cargo Record Volume 16.1%

  41. Disappearing Available Space For Facilities

  42. 2018 Forecast: Space v. Regulators 2018e 11,400 2019 Prospect: 10,000

  43. Manufacturing Job Growth 2011-2018 4.0% of Job Growth

  44. 2018 Median Manufacturing Pay $54,800

  45. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

  46. CA Electrical Cost +74.6% +83.5% +135.4%

  47. Construction Job Growth 2011-2018 12.4% Of Job Growth

  48. Median Construction Pay: 2018 Best Paying Blue Collar Sector $53,322

  49. Home Volume: Stalled

  50. Home Prices +4.5% -9.6%

More Related