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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.

Economic Expansion . . . Orange County & Inland Empire. John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … Now At A Record Level of Jobs U.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating. 18.0%. 10.6%. 8.6%. 4.3%.

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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.

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  1. Economic Expansion . . . Orange County & Inland Empire John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc.

  2. After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … Now At A Record Level of JobsU.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating

  3. 18.0% 10.6% 8.6% 4.3%

  4. California Job Gains/Losses Up 1,368,852 8.6% Up 2007 15,848,033 2017e 17,216,885 Recovery 2,576,300 Great Recession -1,178,600

  5. Orange County Expansion

  6. Inland Empire Expansion

  7. Growth was the 2nd & 4TH LargestAbsolute Job Gain in California in 2016!

  8. Unadjusted Unemployment Rates

  9. Poverty

  10. Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children

  11. BA or Higher

  12. Gold Mine Theory Secondary Tier Primary Tier

  13. Professional, Scientific

  14. OC - High Paying Professionals, Mgmt., Scientific, Utilities, Mining … Very Strong! 2011-2017 16.8% of Growth Median Pay $76,905

  15. Professionals & Mgmt., Higher Ed., Mining Utilities, Information Group Slowly Adding Jobs 2011-2017 1.7% of Growth Median Pay $73,279

  16. Office Vacancy Rates Still Some Weakness! 2017 Sq. Ft. 2017Q2 SF/Mo. Orange Co. 101.6 mil. 9.6% $2.75 San Diego 77.7 mil. 10.2% $2.84 Inland Empire 24.7 mil. 11.8% $1.90 L.A. Co. 204.5 mil. 13.3% $3.09

  17. Health Care

  18. OC - Health Care Moderately Strong! • 2011-2017 • 8.4% of Job Growth • Median Pay $61,715

  19. Orange County Overserved by Health Care Workers -12.9% Fewer People Per Health Care Worker in 2015

  20. Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth • 2011-2017 • 10.8% of Job Growth • Median Pay $60,768 Inland Empire’s Best Sector for Higher End Jobs

  21. Residents Per Health Care Worker 27.1%

  22. Sophisticated Warehousing Operations

  23. Port Container VolumesOn Pace For Record Levels

  24. Fulfillment Warehousing

  25. E-Commerce Growth RatesYear Over Year by Quarter • 1.1% • 16.2% • 8.9%

  26. Industrial OverwhelminglyIn The Inland Empire • Four Qtrs. IE Net Absorption: 15.9 million Sq. Ft. • Four Qtrs. OC Net Absorption: 1.0 million Sq. Ft.

  27. Industrial Vacancy Rate Disappearing Everywhere! 017 Sq. Ft. 2009Q3 2017Q2 San Diego 142 mil. 12.0% 3.7% Orange Co. 255 mil. 6.5% 1.4% Inland Empire 506 mil. 12.8% 3.3% L.A. Co. 940 mil. 3.2% 1.1%

  28. OC - Logistics Slow Growth! • 2011-2017 • 3.2% of New Jobs • Median Pay $49,443

  29. OC - PM 2.5 & Ozone Emissions

  30. Logistics Powerful Job Growth • 2011-2017 • 20.6% of New Jobs • Median Pay $46,708

  31. PM 2.5: Diesel Pollution • 245 Million Sq. Ft. of Net New Facilities • -95.8% • -44.7%

  32. Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source

  33. California Manufacturing Job GrowthJust 5.5% of U.S. Growth

  34. CA Is Not Loved By Executives & Entrepreneurs

  35. OC - Manufacturing … Weak Growth! • 2011-2017 • 1.8% of Job Growth • Median Pay $55,900

  36. Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs • 2011-2017 • 5.2% of Job Growth • Median Pay $51,385

  37. Construction: Finally Coming Back

  38. Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Greater Than Ever

  39. Housing Affordability

  40. Jobs:Housing Out of Balance

  41. OC - Domestic Out-Migration: Returns -285,949 17 Years or -16,821 per year

  42. IE - Domestic In-Migration Stalled -4,155 9 Years -462 per year

  43. OC - Construction … Very Strong! • 2011-2017 • 14.3% of Job Growth • Median Pay $56,993

  44. Inland Empire Construction Jobs • 2011-2017 • 15.7% of Job Growth • 30.3 % Share in 2017 • Median Pay $52,604

  45. Lower Paying Population Serving Sectors

  46. Low Paying Sectors … Large Share of Growth! 2011-2017 45.2% of Job Growth Median Pay $31,238

  47. Low Paying Job GrowthRetail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & DrinkAmusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency 2011-2016 40.0% of Job Growth Median Pay $32,750

  48. Retail Markets 2017 Sq. Ft. 2017Q2 SF/Mo. San Diego 69.5 mil. 5.0% $2.28 Orange Co. 85.3 mil. 3.9% $2.32 L.A. Co. 109.6 mil. 5.2% $2.52 Inland Empire 111.5 mil. 7.8% $2.03

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