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Making sense of falling crime in Scotland

Making sense of falling crime in Scotland. Dominic Munro Scottish Government International Policing Conference 14 November 2013. Fall in recorded crime since 2006/7. Recorded crime down 35% Housebreaking down 30% Theft of cars down 62% Vandalism down 55% Knife crime down 60 %

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Making sense of falling crime in Scotland

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  1. Making sense of falling crime in Scotland Dominic Munro Scottish Government International Policing Conference 14 November 2013

  2. Fall in recorded crime since 2006/7 • Recorded crime down 35% • Housebreaking down 30% • Theft of cars down 62% • Vandalism down 55% • Knife crime down 60% • Homicide down 48%

  3. Methodology Evidence Account STEEP Analysis What’s causing the fall in crime? Testing Social and demographic Technological Economic Environmental Policy and Practice Crime Statistics • Findings are reasonable rather than conclusive

  4. Heterogeneous and multi-factorial Crimes with highest socio-economic costs

  5. Change in crime types: 2006/07 – 2012/13 Note: crime is at a 39 year low, even when vandalism is stripped out

  6. Analysis of crime reduction: age

  7. Analysis of crime reduction: geography Crime (SIMD definition) in 2009 and 2012: split by 15% most deprived and other 85%

  8. STEEP Analysis • Social and demographic • Technological • Economic • Environmental • Policy and Practice What was actually happening to the identified crime drivers in Scotland during relevant time frames?

  9. Demographics: Young Males

  10. Youth behaviour

  11. Alcohol

  12. Alcohol

  13. Technological

  14. Economic

  15. Economic Annual price changes: UK general (RPIX) and audio visual equipment price index

  16. Policy & Practice: Justice

  17. Policy and Practice: Education Staying on rates at school

  18. Policy and Practice: Education School Exclusions and Court Convictions of Under 17s

  19. Conclusions (Discursive rather than definitive) • So what’s been driving the fall in crime? • In large part, it’s a story of falling youth crime • reduced alcohol consumption • improved educational outcomes • increased police effectiveness (e.g. rising clear up rate) • reduced poverty (although this impact has probably now ended) General drivers

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