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North American Drought Briefing for July 2014 and May_July 2014

North American Drought Briefing for July 2014 and May_July 2014. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang

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North American Drought Briefing for July 2014 and May_July 2014

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  1. North American Drought Briefingfor July 2014and May_July 2014 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

  2. Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier MSU: Lifeng Luo USDA: Martha Anderson Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James Noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur Project Funded by NOAA MAPP& NASA

  3. P anomalies over the United States July • After a rainy June, July is dry over the North Central , Midwest • The Southeast has been dry for 2 months • The Southwest monsoon rainfall was slightly above normal • Northern and Central Taxes had some rain, but western Texas was dry

  4. SPI SPI3: • Texas drought improved • Drought started to develop over the western interior and Southeast • SPI3 and SPI6: • California was dry. It is a dry season for California so they will not get much relieve, • AZNM monsoon relieved drought somewhat • California drought appeared in SPI 24, 12.

  5. The UW multi model Ensemble SM % NCEP Soil Moisture Percentiles EMC/NCEP UW JAN • California: SM indicates that they are still way below normal • Severe drought over California, and Arizona • Drought started to develop over the western interior states • Wetness over the Dakotas , the Northeast and Gulf States

  6. UWhigh ressm percentiles • Over the western region, California is under severe drought • It also shows the dryness over the western interior states • AZNM- monsoon rainfall is normal, but SM is still dry over AZ

  7. Runoff EMC/NCEP 3-month mean Consistent with SM Dryness over the western states and California and AZ

  8. Streamflow Percentiles (USGS) June 2014 Dry: California and Nevada Wetness over Dakotas , Minn, Wisconsin, the Great Lakes and Northeast

  9. Monsoon Rainfall time series over the AZNM AZ NM Monsoon started at July 2 Near normal starting date AZ rainfall Near normal , slightly above

  10. Tmax and Tmin over the United States

  11. Martha Anderson hrsl.arsusda.gov/drought

  12. Drought Monitor • Improvement over Great Plains and Southwest • Drought conditions over California continues

  13. El Nino WATCH • El Nino watch was issued • Warm +1 C SSTA over the tropical eastern Pacific (weaker than June) • Warm SSTAs over the West Coast and the North Pacific (weaker than June)

  14. Convection over the Pacific from 120E to 120W But the convection is Mostly over the Western Pacific

  15. ORLA along the equator Negative OLRA from 120E-170W from late May to June to mid-July

  16. ENSO The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter. The 20C depth shows why

  17. ENSO Plume Still forecast warm ENSO August SST Reaches 1C

  18. March fcst El Nino Watch The possibility for the warm ENSO to occur is 64% for summer and 74% for fall Percentages are down but still fcst that El Nino will occur

  19. NMME seasonal SST fcsts SON 2014 September 2014

  20. Contribution from Jae Schemm

  21. Precip fcsts (NMME) September 2014 SON 2014 It forecasts a very wet monsoon season

  22. CPC seasonal outlook Temp JAS P ASO Same as the fcsts for JJA

  23. Atlantic Hurricanes Forecast 2014 Activity

  24. Eastern Pacific Hurricanes • Tropical storm activity • Tropical storms 3 • Hurricanes 5 • Amanda • Genevieve • Hernan • Iselle • Julio • Forecast • 14-20 named storms • 7-11 hurricanes • 3-6 Major hurricanes 2014 Activity

  25. Fcsts for August 2014 SPI3 August ESP UW MSU Princeton-MSU-EMC MSU MSU

  26. September Forecasts 2014 ESP UW SPI3 August 2014 SPI6 lead-2 MSU 2014 Princeton-MSU-EMC MSU MSU

  27. October 2014 FCSTs ESP UW SPI3 SPI6 Sep 2014 Princeton-MSU-EMC MSU september MSU MSU

  28. Drought Outlooks Seasonal Monthly

  29. Summary El Niño/La Nina: • ENSO- watch is on. Current conditions: • Dry: Drought conditions over California continues • Drought over Texas and Great Plains: much improved • Southwest: monsoon normal and slightly above • Western region: drought developing Prediction: • ENSO Watch was issued There is 65% chance for warm ENSO to develop in summer and above 80% for the Fall • California: SM and runoff will be below normal until October • North American Monsoon: NMME forecasts indicate a wet season over AZNM. • Southeast: Has been dry for 2 months, so careful monitoring

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