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North American Drought Briefing for Jan 2012 and Nov 2011-Jan2012. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool

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North american drought briefing for jan 2012 and nov 2011 jan2012

North American Drought Briefingfor Jan 2012 and Nov 2011-Jan2012

Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought


Current partners

Current Partners

CPC: Kingtse Mo, LiChuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Huug van den Dool

EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek

NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker

Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield

Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier, S. Shukla,

Web Masters: Joe Harrison

RFCs: James noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur, John Feldt

Project Funded by NOAA MAPP, TRACS& NASA


P anomalies over the United States

  • High lights:

  • Jan 2012

  • Rainfall over Texas and the Pacific Northwest improved drought

  • Dry over California and Arizona

  • Dryness continues over the Southeast and the Atlantic coast


SPI

  • Drought over Texas improved . It no longer shows up on the SPI3 map

  • For short term SPI3, dryness improved over the Pacific Northwest

  • Drought is developing over the region from California to Colorado;

  • Drought continues over Minnesota , Wisconsin and Southeast

D3 D2 D1


Streamflow percentile usgs
Streamflow percentile (USGS)

Improvements :Southern Plains and the Pacific Northwest

Drought; Northern California, Southeast


Runoff 3 mo
RUNOFF 3-mo

EMC/NCEP

U Washington

NCEP/EMC/NLDAS

SRI3

Runoff SRI3 from the UW and the NCEP agree

SRI3 shows dryness over the West Coast, Southeast and Minnesota Wisconsin.

Drought over the Southern Plains improved


Multi model sm information

U Washington

Multi model SM information

EMC/NCEP

EMC

EMC/NCEP

SM % agrees with the runoff

Drought over the Southern Plains

Improved. Dryness only remains over western Texas and southern tip of Texas

Dryness continues over California, Minnesota , Wisconsin and Southeast


SM anomaly (mm) for Jan 2012

Runoff anomaly (mm/day) for Jan 2012



Drought monitor

Dry conditions over the Texas, Oklahoma New Mexico improved

Drought continues over Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Southeast


SWE from multi model UW

NRCS Basin Averaged Snow Water Content (%)

Snow % is below normal from California, Nevada to Colorado



SSTA

  • La Nina is slightly weaker, but SSTAs the central Pacific are still less than

  • -1.5C

  • Positive SSTAs in the North Pacific

  • Negative SSTAs in the Tropical South Atlantic


OLRA

Positive OLRAS (suppressed convection) in the central

Pacific and enhanced convection over the western Pacific consistent with cold ENSO

The streamfunction anomaly shows positive anomalies over California (dry) and negative anomalies over the PNW (wet)


Outgoing longwave radiation olr anomalies
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies

Positive OLRA associated with ENSO dominates over the central Pacific.

Regular MJO since Oct 2011.

Ensemble mean GFS

Time

Mar

Jun


Ssta forecasts
SSTA forecasts

CFSV2

CFSv1

Cold ENSO is weakening quickly

Positive SSTAs are still located over the Northern Pacific,


Iri cpc probability based enso forecasts
IRI-CPCProbability based ENSO forecasts

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo

  • Winter- Cold ENSO

  • MAM-- cold and neutral ENSO have about equal chance to occur

  • After May –Neutral conditions


T and p fcsts for fma 2012
T and P fcsts for FMA 2012

precip

Temp

Pr

Cold ENSO impact


SPI forecasts based on CFSv2 (IC s Feb 3,4 2012

  • Drought over Texas, Minn, Wisconsin and the PNW will continue to improve.

  • Some improvement over the Southeast


Fcst uw ic s 20120204
FCST UW IC s 20120204

SM 1mo

SM 3 mo

SM 2mo

RO 1mo


SM month 1

EMC/Princeton system

Ics 20120202

SM month 3

SM month 2


seasonal

Drought outlook

Last month

Need to update

This month


SPI forecasts based on CFSv2

ICs Dec 3 and 4

Jan 2012

Verification


Jan

SM fcst made in Jan 2012

U Washington conditional EN

Ro 1mo

verification


Conclusions
Conclusions

Ocean conditions :

  • La Nina is weakening but SSTAs less than -1.5C still remain over the tropical Pacific

    Current conditions:

    Dry:

  • Rainfall brought relieve to the Southern Plains and the Pacific Northwest

  • Drought continues over Minnesota and Wisconsin

  • Drought developing from California to Colorado

    Wet

    Ohio Valley, Northeast


Prediction
Prediction

La Nina

  • Cold ENSO is weakening and turning to Neutral conditions by spring

    Drought

  • Drought over the Southern Plains , the Pacific Northwest continues to weaken.

  • Minnesota, Wisconsin and Southeast –continue for two months and then weakening


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