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North American Drought Briefing for Jun 2014 and April- Jun 2014

North American Drought Briefing for Jun 2014 and April- Jun 2014. Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought. Current Partners. CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang

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North American Drought Briefing for Jun 2014 and April- Jun 2014

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  1. North American Drought Briefingfor Jun 2014and April- Jun 2014 Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

  2. Current Partners CPC: Kingtse Mo, Li-Chuan Chen, Muthuvel Chelliah, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Qin Zhang EMC: NLDAS Team: Youlong Xia, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Michael Ek NASA/GSFC: Randy Koster, Greg Walker Princeton Univ.: Eric Wood, Justin Scheffield Univ. of Washington: Dennis Lettenmaier MSU: Lifeng Luo USDA: Martha Anderson Web Masters: Joe Harrison RFCs: James Noel, Kevin Werner, Andy Wood, Jeff Dobur Project Funded by NOAA MAPP& NASA

  3. P anomalies over the United States A very wet picture June • June and May rainfall patterns were almost opposite in phase • Rainfall over most central and northeastern U.S in June. • The Southeast along the east coast was dry in June Kansas

  4. SPI SPI3: Texas drought improved • SPI3 and SPI6: • California and the AZNM showed dryness. It is a dry season for California so they will not get relieve, • AZNM monsoon started around July 2 so it will get relieve

  5. The UW multi model Ensemble SM % NCEP Soil Moisture Percentiles May 2014 EMC/NCEP UW JAN June 2014 • California: SM indicates that they are still way below normal • In comparison with last month, drought over the great Plains improved • Severe drought over California, and the Southwest • Wetness over the North Central and the Northeast

  6. UWhigh ressm percentiles Over the western region, California is still under severe drought so does AZ

  7. Runoff EMC/NCEP The current 3 -month runoff indicates dryness over California 3-month mean Drought over California

  8. May 2014 Streamflow Percentiles (USGS) Dry: California and Nevada Dryness over Texas and Oklahoma: Much improved Wetness over Missouri basin, North Central and the Northeast Current condition: AZ got relieve June 2014 Current condition

  9. Monsoon Rainfall time series over the AZNM Monsoon started at July 2 Near normal starting date AZ rainfall Recent rainfall

  10. Most Reservoirs are way below normal in California

  11. Tmax and Tmin over the United States

  12. Ref: Martha Anderson

  13. Drought Monitor • Improvement over Great Plains • Drought conditions over California : same as last month • AZNM: hopefully, the North American monsoon rainfall will help

  14. El Nino WATCH • El Nino watch was issued • Warm +1.5 C SSTA over the tropical Pacific near the dateline and eastern Pacific • Warm SSTAs over the West Coast and the North Pacific

  15. Convection over the Central Pacific but overall anomalies were weak Atmosphere has not responded to ENSO

  16. ORLA along the equator Negative OLRA from 120E-170W from late May to June

  17. Subsurface heat anomalies Decrease from April and now it is near normal

  18. ENSO Plume August SST Reaches 1C

  19. March fcst El Nino Watch The possibility for the warm ENSO to occur is 70% for summer and 80% for fall and winter It backed off a bit

  20. NMME seasonal SST fcsts ASO 2014 August 2014

  21. Precip fcsts (NMME) August 2014 ASO 2014 It forecasts a very wet monsoon season

  22. CPC seasonal outlook Temp JAS P JAS

  23. Atlantic Hurricanes 2014 Activity Forecast

  24. Eastern Pacific Hurricanes • Forecast • 14-20 named storms • 7-11 hurricanes • 3-6 Major hurricanes • Tropical storm activity • Hurricanes 2 • Tropical storm 3

  25. NASA forecasts

  26. Fcsts for July 2014 ESP UW SPI6 July MSU July Princeton-MSU-EMC SM fcst MSU MSU

  27. August Forecasts 2014 ESP UW August 2014 SPI6 lead-2 MSU MSU 2014 Princeton-MSU-EMC MSU

  28. September 2014 FCSTs ESP UW SPI6 Sep 2014 Princeton-MSU-EMC MSU september MSU MSU

  29. Forecast skill for SM forecasts • We derived forcings from monthly mean P and Tsurf, surface wind speed from each member and each model in the NMME (six models CFSv2, CMC1, CMC2 , GFDL, NASA and NCAR). • Forcing was used to drive VIC model to get SM and runoff forecasts • Took ensemble mean of SM and runoff • Compute skill • Mo and Lettenmaier 2014 in press

  30. Drought Outlooks Seasonal Monthly

  31. Summary El Niño/La Nina: • ENSO- watch is on. SSTAs in the Tropical Pacific reached 1C Current conditions: • Dry: Drought conditions over California continues (low sm and runoff) • Drought over Texas and Great Plains: much improved • Southwest: monsoon started on July 2. Prediction: • ENSO Watch was issued There is 70% chance for warm ENSO to develop in summer and above 80% for the Fall • California: SM and runoff will be below normal conditions. They are not gong to have much relieve until fall. • North American Monsoon: wet season for southern Mexico so far The NMME and hydroforecasts indicate a wet season over AZNM. • Great Plains: drought improved

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