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Section 2 Executive Overview. Topics. Why forecast air quality? What is needed? About the course. Why forecast air quality?. Pollutants originate from Combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter

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topics
Topics
  • Why forecast air quality?
  • What is needed?
  • About the course

Section 2 – Executive Overview

why forecast air quality
Why forecast air quality?
  • Pollutants originate from
    • Combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter
    • Evaporation of petroleum products or compounds used in commercial products, services, and manufacturing
    • Natural production of smoke from fires, dust from strong winds, and emissions from the biosphere and geosphere

Section 2 – Executive Overview

why forecast air quality1
Why forecast air quality?
  • World Health Organization:
  • Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that exceeds WHO standards;
  • Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air pollution;
  • Costs:
  • World health costs of urban air pollution are estimated to approach US$1 billion per year.
  • In developing countries the health effects of air pollution cost between 5% - 20% of GDP.

Section 2 – Executive Overview

why forecast air quality2
Why forecast air quality?
  • Pollutants of concern
  • Pollutant
  • Abbreviation
  • Carbon Monoxide
  • CO
  • Sulfur Dioxide
  • SO2
  • Ozone
  • O3
  • Nitrogen Dioxide
  • NO2
  • Hydrocarbon Compounds
  • HC
  • Particulate Matter
  • PM

Section 2 – Executive Overview

why forecast air quality3
Why forecast air quality?
  • Health Effects:
  • Deaths associated with PM concentrations

Schwartz et al., 1992

Section 2 – Executive Overview

why forecast air quality4

Concentration

(mg/g)

Jan-Mar 1986

(open)

Jan-Mar 1987

(closed)

Jan-Mar 1988

(open)

Iron

107.2

50.2

117.8

Copper

163.3

50.5

327.0

Zinc

264.8

95.5

113.2

Lead

91.7

30.5

122.2

Nickel

18.6

26.9

18.6

Why forecast air quality?
  • Health Effects:
  • Geneva Steel Mill: The Utah Valley

Section 2 – Executive Overview

why forecast air quality5

80

150

Steel Mill

Closed

Steel Mill

Closed

125

60

100

PM (mg/m3)

Monthly Asthma Admissions

40

75

50

20

25

0

0

1985

1986

1987

1988

1985

1986

1987

1988

Why forecast air quality?
  • Health Effects:
  • Particulate Matter concentrations
  • Health: Monthly asthma admissions

Section 2 – Executive Overview

why forecast air quality6
Why forecast air quality?
  • How are forecasts used:
  • Protect public health
  • Operate emissions reduction programs
  • Conduct special monitoring

Section 2 – Executive Overview

evolution of a forecasting program

Good historical data set

  • Good understanding
  • Modest experience
  • Several forecasting tools/techniques
  • Higher accuracy
  • Excellent historical data set
  • Detailed understanding
  • Extensive experience
  • Many forecasting tools/techniques
  • Highest accuracy
Evolution of a Forecasting Program

Age of Forecasting Program (years)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+

  • Limited data
  • Limited experience and understanding
  • One forecasting tool/technique
  • Modest accuracy

Section 2 – Executive Overview

what is needed
What is needed?
  • 1. Air quality problem
  • Most large & mega cities have air pollution

Section 2 – Executive Overview

what is needed1
What is needed?
  • 2. Air quality monitoring program
  • Monitor network
  • Historical data
  • Real-time monitoring system

Section 2 – Executive Overview

what is needed2
What is needed?
  • 3. Understanding the interactions
    • Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area
    • Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality

Section 2 – Executive Overview

what is needed3

Ozone

(Low–High)

Temp high

Temp low

Moderate to

High

Moderate to

Low

WS - calm

WS - strong

WS -light

WS - calm

Low

High

Moderate

Moderate

What is needed?
  • 4. Develop forecasting methods
    • Simple to complex
    • Statistical, numerical models, experience
    • More tools = more accurate forecast

Section 2 – Executive Overview

what is needed4

Data

Collection

Develop

a Program

Operate

the Program

Forecast

Preparation

Need for an

AQ Forecast

Revise

the Program

Forecast

Communication

What is needed?
  • 5. Developing a program

Section 2 – Executive Overview

overview of course
Overview of Course
  • Course Content:
  • Background
    • Introduction and Overview of Course
    • What Are We Forecasting?
    • How Are Forecasts Used?
    • Health Effects
  • Understanding
    • Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution
    • Pollutant Monitoring
    • Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends
    • Air Pollution Meteorology
    • Case Studies of Episodes
  • Developing a program
    • Air Quality Forecasting Tools
    • Developing a Forecasting Program
    • Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations

Section 2 – Executive Overview

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