Section 2 executive overview
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Section 2 Executive Overview. Topics. Why forecast air quality? What is needed? About the course. Why forecast air quality?. Pollutants originate from Combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter

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Section 2 Executive Overview

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Section 2 executive overview

Section 2Executive Overview


Topics

Topics

  • Why forecast air quality?

  • What is needed?

  • About the course

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Why forecast air quality

Why forecast air quality?

  • Pollutants originate from

    • Combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter

    • Evaporation of petroleum products or compounds used in commercial products, services, and manufacturing

    • Natural production of smoke from fires, dust from strong winds, and emissions from the biosphere and geosphere

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Why forecast air quality1

Why forecast air quality?

  • World Health Organization:

  • Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that exceeds WHO standards;

  • Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air pollution;

  • Costs:

  • World health costs of urban air pollution are estimated to approach US$1 billion per year.

  • In developing countries the health effects of air pollution cost between 5% - 20% of GDP.

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Why forecast air quality2

Why forecast air quality?

  • Pollutants of concern

  • Pollutant

  • Abbreviation

  • Carbon Monoxide

  • CO

  • Sulfur Dioxide

  • SO2

  • Ozone

  • O3

  • Nitrogen Dioxide

  • NO2

  • Hydrocarbon Compounds

  • HC

  • Particulate Matter

  • PM

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Why forecast air quality3

Why forecast air quality?

  • Health Effects:

  • Deaths associated with PM concentrations

Schwartz et al., 1992

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Why forecast air quality4

Concentration

(mg/g)

Jan-Mar 1986

(open)

Jan-Mar 1987

(closed)

Jan-Mar 1988

(open)

Iron

107.2

50.2

117.8

Copper

163.3

50.5

327.0

Zinc

264.8

95.5

113.2

Lead

91.7

30.5

122.2

Nickel

18.6

26.9

18.6

Why forecast air quality?

  • Health Effects:

  • Geneva Steel Mill: The Utah Valley

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Why forecast air quality5

80

150

Steel Mill

Closed

Steel Mill

Closed

125

60

100

PM (mg/m3)

Monthly Asthma Admissions

40

75

50

20

25

0

0

1985

1986

1987

1988

1985

1986

1987

1988

Why forecast air quality?

  • Health Effects:

  • Particulate Matter concentrations

  • Health: Monthly asthma admissions

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Why forecast air quality6

Why forecast air quality?

  • How are forecasts used:

  • Protect public health

  • Operate emissions reduction programs

  • Conduct special monitoring

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Evolution of a forecasting program

  • Good historical data set

  • Good understanding

  • Modest experience

  • Several forecasting tools/techniques

  • Higher accuracy

  • Excellent historical data set

  • Detailed understanding

  • Extensive experience

  • Many forecasting tools/techniques

  • Highest accuracy

Evolution of a Forecasting Program

Age of Forecasting Program (years)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+

  • Limited data

  • Limited experience and understanding

  • One forecasting tool/technique

  • Modest accuracy

Section 2 – Executive Overview


What is needed

What is needed?

  • 1. Air quality problem

  • Most large & mega cities have air pollution

Section 2 – Executive Overview


What is needed1

What is needed?

  • 2. Air quality monitoring program

  • Monitor network

  • Historical data

  • Real-time monitoring system

Section 2 – Executive Overview


What is needed2

What is needed?

  • 3. Understanding the interactions

    • Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area

    • Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality

Section 2 – Executive Overview


What is needed3

Ozone

(Low–High)

Temp high

Temp low

Moderate to

High

Moderate to

Low

WS - calm

WS - strong

WS -light

WS - calm

Low

High

Moderate

Moderate

What is needed?

  • 4. Develop forecasting methods

    • Simple to complex

    • Statistical, numerical models, experience

    • More tools = more accurate forecast

Section 2 – Executive Overview


What is needed4

Data

Collection

Develop

a Program

Operate

the Program

Forecast

Preparation

Need for an

AQ Forecast

Revise

the Program

Forecast

Communication

What is needed?

  • 5. Developing a program

Section 2 – Executive Overview


Overview of course

Overview of Course

  • Course Content:

  • Background

    • Introduction and Overview of Course

    • What Are We Forecasting?

    • How Are Forecasts Used?

    • Health Effects

  • Understanding

    • Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution

    • Pollutant Monitoring

    • Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends

    • Air Pollution Meteorology

    • Case Studies of Episodes

  • Developing a program

    • Air Quality Forecasting Tools

    • Developing a Forecasting Program

    • Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations

Section 2 – Executive Overview


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