Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

1. Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan

2. Outline • Context • Adaptation Primer • Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan • Regional Adaptation Collaborative

3. Context – Ontario’s Changing Climate There has been an increase of up to 1.4°C in average temperatures in Ontario since 1948.

4. Context – Ontario’s Changing Climate • These seemingly small temperature changes bring big changes in weather patterns and impacts • 2010 has been estimated as the hottest year on record with significant warming in northern Ontario • Warmer weather and winters in particular allow disease vectors and other pests to survive and spread • Extreme wind and flooding causes major infrastructure damage • Changing weather has already impacted some tourism activities (e.g. snowmobiling)

5. Context – Heat Days *A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum temperature above 30C Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

6. 2090 90 2050 80 Size of event (mm) 1985 70 60 50 20 30 40 50 60 10 70 80 Event recurrence time (years) Context – Extreme Rains ICLR Presentation: September 28, 2011

7. Context – Climate Impacts Severe Winter Storm in Eastern Ontario, Québec and the Maritime Provinces in 1998 ($1.5B insurance claims in Canada). 7

8. Context – Climate Impacts Low water levels in the Great Lakes – Georgian Bay “Dry Docks.” 8

9. Context – Climate Impacts In 2009, Vaughan and Grey County tornadoes resulted in $76M in insurance claims. Wind damage resulting in personal injury, infrastructure and property damage, and power failures. An August 21, 2011 tornado in Goderich resulted in heavy damage to the city’s downtown core and disruptions in electricity and natural gas utilities. Photo: Tornado damage in Vaughan, 2009 9

10. Context – Freaky Friday • August 19, 2005 153 mm of rain fell in 2-3 hours in the GTA • Two tornadoes in Salem/Fergus, Ontario reminiscent of Hurricane Hazel • Largest catastrophe in Ontario history $590 million in insurance claims paid • Old infrastructure couldn’t handle the load: • The highland creek trunk sanitary sewer collapsed (.7 cubic metres per second of raw sewage spilled into creek for 3 days) • Basement flooding (GTA - 1,274 claims as of 08/05) • Road damages (section of Finch Ave. at the Black Creek washed away, five months to partially re-open, $45 million in damage) • Wastewater treatment plant flooding (>$1 million in damage) • extensive damage to both public and private property erosion Photo: Tornado damage in Vaughan, 2009 10

11. 2 High Pressure Gas Mains Broken Watermain Broken Maintenance Hole Bell Canada Plant Bell Canada Plant Parks Path Toronto Hydro and Rogers Cable Context – Freaky Friday 11

12. Ontario’s Climate - Liability & Risk Governments and private sector face liability over climate change impacts • Property damage and personal injury • Failure to take climate risks into account RBC using climate information to manage risks in investment portfolio decisions. Sectors identified with significant climate risks: • Hydropower • Insurance • Tourism & Recreation • Agriculture & Fisheries • Forestry Ontario Securities Commission now requires publicly traded companies to disclose material risks related to climate impacts. Torys Law Firm found liability should be regarded as significant driver of climate change adaptation

13. Value of Adaptation • Cost of adaptation increases when action delayed • Cost of climate change in Canada could escalate from roughly $5 billion per year in 2020 to $21-43 billion by 2050 (National Round Table on the Environment & Economy, 2011). • In Toronto, climatic changes causing increases in the number of heat and ozone related deaths could increase costs related to premature mortality risks (insurance) by $2.6 billion per year by the 2050s. • In Ontario, the impacts to timber supply due to increased pest disturbances, fires and changes to forest growth, will cost the economy a minimum of $2 billion per year by 2050. • Value of early action and targeted investment • Well-targeted, early investment to improve climate resilience is likely to be cheaper and more effective than complex disaster relief efforts after the event. • Economic Opportunities • Adaptation measures can spark innovation (e.g. new drip irrigation technologies in Leamington). • Longer growing seasons have enabled a vineyard to be established on Manitoulin Island.

14. Adaptation Primer • Adaptation means: • Coping with an uncertain future • Taking measures to reduce the negative effects of climate change or take advantage of the positive effects • Adaptation examples: • Changing the way we design and build our roads, bridges and buildings to better withstand greater storm activity • Studying different crop varieties that will be resilient in the face of variable temperature and water availability

15. Examples of Overlap - Mitigation/Adaptation

16. Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan • In April 2011, Climate Ready was released; the • Strategy and Action Plan: • Provides a framework for current actions needed to better manage the risks of a changing climate and a vision for future actions that may be considered to 2014 and beyond • Responds to the Expert Panel whose top recommendation was for an adaptation strategy and action plan • Was developed through a collaborative effort across ministries and informed by meetings with key external stakeholders

18. Ontario’s Adaptation Vision and Goals • VISION • A province prepared for the impacts of a changing climate through implementation of policies and programs that minimize risks to our health and safety, the environment and the economy, and maximizes the benefits from opportunities which may arise • GOALS • Avoid loss and unsustainable investment, and take advantage of economic opportunities • Take reasonable and practical measures to increase climate resilience of ecosystems • Create and share risk-management tools to support adaptation efforts across the province • Achieve a better understanding of future climate change impacts across the province • Seek opportunities to collaborate with others

19. Actions to Deliver the Strategy and Action Plan • Action 1: Require consideration of climate change adaptation • To ensure that government policies and programs consider the impacts of climate change • Action 2: The province will take leadership role and drive the implementation of the Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan • Act as a catalyst for new policy; assist review of existing policies • Report on adaptation actions • Sustain adaptation actions across government • Co-ordinate/undertake economic and climate impact studies • Integrate science and policy • Be a resource for the public and government on adaptation • Establish OPS Climate Modelling Collaborative

20. Climate Ready Actions • Water Resources • A changing climate will affect both water quantity and quality. Intense rain storms and changes in the annual snow melt may cause flooding to happen more often. A changing climate may lead to reduced winter ice cover on lakes, lower lake levels and more frequent water shortages due to increased evaporation rates. • Some of the actions include: • promoting water conservation through the new Water Opportunities and Water Conservation Act, 2010 (Action 3) • ensuring climate change considerations are integrated into Ontario’s drinking water safety net and source water protection framework (Action 9) • building consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation actions in all Great Lakes Agreements (Action 18).

21. Climate Ready Actions • Buildings & Infrastructure • Changing weather impacts all classes of infrastructure from buildings, roads and bridges to hydro-transmission lines, and stormwater drainage. Impacts may cause flooding, road washouts, ice and windstorm damage. • Some of the actions include: • consulting on updates to the Ontario Building Code to increase resiliency to climate change impacts (Action 5) • undertaking infrastructure vulnerability assessments to understand the impacts of climate change over time (Action 6) • re-aligning and strengthening the winter road network in Northern Ontario (Action 11)

22. Agriculture • The agricultural sector will need to deal with increasing impacts of extreme weather events on farm operations such as drought and hail damage, as well as pest infestations and increased crop vulnerability. • Warmer and longer growing seasons may present opportunities for some farmers and allow a northward extension of crop production, in some cases, where soil conditions are suitable. • Some of the actions include: • developing new approaches to protect plant health by undertaking research on new crops and best management practices (Action 13) • protecting animal health through detection and surveillance of new and emerging animal diseases (Action 12)

23. The Natural Environment • Climate change may impact the composition, distribution and abundance of Ontario’s biodiversity. For example, warming water temperatures will cause cold and cool water fish (e.g., lake trout) to lose habitat, while warm water species (e.g., smallmouth bass) will gain habitat. • Ontario’s forests will be impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of disturbances such as fires, drought and severe storms. Damaging insect and disease attacks may also affect Ontario forests. • Some of the actions include: • researching and assessing forest and fisheries vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (Actions 17 and 19) • building the consideration of climate change impacts into Great Lakes Agreements (Action 18)

24. Health • Changing climate affects human health in many ways. Extreme weather such as heat waves, heavy rain, high winds and poor air quality can cause serious health issues for Ontarians. Warmer temperatures have already begun to allow the appearance and spread of mosquito and tick-borne diseases, such as West Nile virus and Lyme disease. • Some of the actions include: • supporting the development of a heat vulnerability tool to identify at-risk populations (Actions 24 and 35) • raising awareness of Lyme disease, as disease vectors expand into new areas of Ontario with warming temperatures (Action 25)

25. Communities • Climate change will have varying impacts across the different regions of the province, and adaptation will be needed to build community resiliency. • The public needs the right information and decision-makers at the local level need effective tools to undertake adaptation planning. • Some of the actions include: • taking climate change adaptation considerations into account in the Provincial Policy Statement and increasing local awareness of land use planning tools that support climate change adaptation (Action 22) • providing outreach and training to support communities as they assess local impacts and put effective adaptation strategies into place (Actions 28 and 35)

26. Accountability • Annual report to the public on the action plan • Part of Ontario’s Climate Change Annual Report • Adaptation Directorate will track programs • New actions will be brought through Cabinet • Indicator of success will be that adapting to climate change becomes integrated into policies, programs, information and monitoring across government • Ongoing access to experts • Provides Ontario with the best advice on climate projections, adaptation strategies and sector specific considerations

27. Initiative with Natural Resources Canada to advance community level adaptation planning and actions to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts. Program value is up to $6.8M from December 2009 – March 2012. MOE’s RAC partners include: The Ministry of Natural Resources; The Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing; Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources (OCCIAR); Toronto Public Health; York University; Toronto and Region Conservation Authority; Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction; Clean Air Partnership; and Association for Canadian Educational Resources. Potential opportunity for local engagement (e.g. Conservation Authorities) and participation in components of the RAC (e.g., workshops and risk management tools). Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative 27

28. Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative Urban Component Build capacity through outreach and training with large urban communities (e.g. municipalities, public health units) across Ontario. Partners: CAP. Rural/Northern Component Build capacity through outreach and training with small, rural, agricultural, resource-based and Northern communities across Ontario. Partners: OCCIAR. Public Health Tools Develop heat vulnerability assessment tool to enable public health units to deliver scarce resources during a heat event. Partner: Toronto Public Health. Weather and Water Information Gateway: Create a web-based integrated Provincial weather and water information discovery and access service to facilitate decision-making the community level. Partners: MNR, ACER. Municipal Risk Assessment Tools Expand and update municipal guide to assist municipalities to create risk-based vulnerability assessments. Partner: MMAH. Source Protection Ensure assessment reports and source protection plans for vulnerable communities in Ontario include climate change adaptation (e.g. potential water shortages) policies and data. Partners: MOE, TRCA/CO, York University.

29. Public Health—Extreme Heat Vulnerability Tool RAC: Heat Vulnerability Assessment • Tool is used to geographically plot areas of high heat vulnerability against areas where there are high numbers of seniors living alone. • Allows Public Health Units to target programs like cooling centres in areas where high populations of seniors are most vulnerable to heat. Sample Map Produced Using the Heat-Related Vulnerability Approach 29

30. Increasing Building Resiliency The Institute of Catastrophic Loss Reduction is developing best practice guidance for the construction of new buildings, and retrofitting of existing buildings, to improve their resilience to weather extremes (increased frequency and intensity of windstorms, precipitation & snowloads). The data gathered through extreme event site investigations and laboratory simulations can be used to inform: updates of provincial and national building codes; municipal bylaws, and; current construction practices.  ICLR is also identifying actions that owners of existing homes can take to protect their properties by preparing mitigation handbooks on wild fires and floods. Next steps have UWO Engineering staff documenting measures that homeowners could take to reduce risks associated with heavy snowfalls. RAC: Infrastructure Best Practices 30

31. Next Steps • Each goal includes a future vision which identifies potential areas of priority for consideration in the future • Over the next four years, we will be looking for opportunities across government to further integrate adaptation into government policies and programs • We welcome your feedback and will be working closely with MOE divisions and other ministries to implement and profile the good work that is being done to ensure Ontario is CLIMATE READY

32. Final Thought • What is adaptation? • “It’s a common sense approach to protecting lives and property based on what we can all see is happening to the weather. • It isn’t the same as it was for our grandparents and it won’t be the same for our grandchildren. • We need to prepare for the change. • Not pretend it isn’t happening” • - Dr. David Pearson, Professor of Earth Sciences at Laurentian University, • Co-Chair of Ontario’s Expert Panel on Climate Change Adaptation