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Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project Period: 36 months Kick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011 Ole Krarup Leth Danish Meteorological Institute. Overview. 1 Climate change: An understanding of the problem … Why BALTADAPT Partners

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Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

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  1. Baltic Sea Region Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Project type: EU INTERREG IV B project Period: 36 months Kick-off meeting: 10-12 January 2011 Ole Krarup Leth Danish Meteorological Institute

  2. Overview 1 Climate change: • An understanding of the problem … • Why BALTADAPT • Partners • Work to be carried out 2 Some components to the knowledge- base – what should we relate to: • Warming – regional • Precipitation – regional • Sea level – regional

  3. Background Realise the disaster but prevent the catastrophe ... In our everyday life we calculate the risks and take our precautions – the same is true regarding climate change and climate change adaptation …

  4. Background EU´s strategy for the Baltic Sea... • Elaborated by the European Commission • Launched in 2009 • Four focus areas: 1) Environmentally sustainable 2) Increase economical/industrial competitivenes 3) Improve infrastructure 4) Security • Focus area 1), priority area 5 (of 15): „Adaptation to climate change“ • Priority area 5 is implemented via the action plan: „To establish a regional adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea Region“ BALTADAPT

  5. Project goals and expected results Overall objectives: • Come up with sustainable solutions for climate adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region objectives: • Develop a climate change adaptation startegy for the Baltic Sea region Expected results: • Improve knowledge sharing between scientists and politicians • Collect existing knowledge on climate change adaptation, and identify and fill in gabs in this knowledge • Develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Baltic Sea region • Develop an action plan (for decision makers) for the Baltic Sea region

  6. Baltadapt partnership Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) The Secretariat of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS)/Baltic 21 University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute (EMI) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) • University of Latvia (LU) • Danish Meteological Institute (DMI; LP) Baltic Environmental Forum (BEF), Lithuania • National Environmental • Research Institute, Aarhus, • University (NERI) • Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW) • Federal Ministry for the • Environment, Nature • Conservation and Nuclear • Safety (BMU) • Federal Environment Agency (UBA)

  7. Project structure Work package 3: Develop a BSR climate change adaptation strategy Work package 5: Develop a BSR climate change action plan Work package 2: Communication and information Work package 1: Project management Work package 4: Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR

  8. Project structure Work package 4: Develop knowledge base and vulnerability assessment for the BSR Work Group 1: BSR physical system Work Group 2: BSR ecosystem Work Group 3: BSR coastal zone T1: Describe the state of knowledge (review and compilation of literature and recent research results) T2: Identify climate change impacts on coastal zone env. cond. (e.g., questionnaires send to experts) T3: Identify climate change impacts on coastal uses and function (e.g., questionnaires send to experts) The assessment in WP 4 is a review of existing knowledge on climate change and related issues, not an evaluation of climate change itself.

  9. Background The Baltic Sea and its coastlines face challenges due to climate change... • Changes in precipitation amounts and patterns • Increase in terrestrial and sea temperatures • Rise in sea level • Decrease in ice cover • Intensified eutrophication and algal blooms, increased runoff and pollution ...it is time to adapt now!

  10. Climate change - what does data tells us Observed, global surface temperature and modeled surface temperature till 2100. All relative to 1980-1999. Conclusion: 1.8ºC- 4ºC increase in global surface temperature by year 2100. IPCC, 2007 A2 (red curve):The skeptical/pessimistic emission scenario [6Gt C/yr (now) 29 Gt C/yr] B1/B2 (blue/black curves): The optimistic emission scenario [6Gt C/yr (now)5/13 Gt C/yr] A1B (green curve):The in-between scenario

  11. Climate change - what does data tells us Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenario Winter temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Summer temperatures (avg. 2071-2100) – (avg. 1961-1990). (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Conclusion: 2-4ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region Conclusion: 3-5ºC increase in the Baltic Sea region Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI

  12. Climate change - what does data tells us Ensemble of 9 different, coupled, regional climate models for the IPCC A1B scenariet Winter precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Summer precipitation [change in % from (avg. 1961-1990) to (avg. 2071-2100)]. (50-percentile is approx. equal to the avg. of the nine model scenarios) Conclusion: ~5% less to 24% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region Conclusion: ~20-40% higher precipitation in the Baltic Sea region Results from the EU-project Ensemble (2004-2009), Dr. Ole Bøssing Christensen, DKC, DMI

  13. Climate change – storm surges Areas affected by storm surges • Coast lines in the North Sea and Baltic • Sea affected by storm surges • Future changes in sea level and in • storm surge heights owing to: • Changes in global sea level. • Regional and local changes owing to • land rise. • Changes in direction and strength • of local winds. Schmidt-Thomé, P., et al. (2006). The spatial effects and management of natural and technological hazards in Europe -ESPON 1.3.1 (ESPON report No. 1.3.1). Geological Survey of Finland (GTK).

  14. Climate change – storm surges Expected increase in sea level by yr. 2100 Increase in water level: Effect of changes in local winds (2100 – Now) Modeled (IPCC A2) 10 yr. extreme for year 2100 minus today. Largest increase (up to 20 - 40 cm) is expected in the Wadden sea, Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Bay. K. S. Madsen, Recent and future climatic changes in temperature, salinity, and sea level of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. PhD thesis, 2009, pp. 1-149. Danish energy agency, see http://www.klimatilpasning.dk

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