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Problem

Problem. Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on North Carolina coastal resources Extensive development in the coastal zone in recent decades has put more people and property at risk. Climate change in coastal North Carolina. Sea-level rise Complete loss of many beaches

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Problem

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  1. Problem • Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on North Carolina coastal resources • Extensive development in the coastal zone in recent decades has put more people and property at risk

  2. Climate change in coastal North Carolina • Sea-level rise • Complete loss of many beaches • Lost property values • Lost recreation and tourism values • Increased hurricane activity and intensity • Business interruption • Agricultural losses • Greater damage to forests • Commercial fishing losses

  3. Sea-level Rise and Coastal Inundation

  4. Land at risk due to sea level rise by 2100

  5. In this context, this study … • Considers the impacts of climate change on • coastal real estate • coastal recreation and tourism • business activity • We utilize a range of modest assumptions for sea-level rise and hurricane intensity increases, not best-case or worst-case scenarios.

  6. Coastal Recreation and Tourism

  7. Study Beaches

  8. Beach Width

  9. Impacts on Beach Recreation and Tourism • The lost recreation value to local beach goers • $93 million a year by 2030 • $223 million a year by 2080

  10. Fishing Sites: 22 piers, 28 beaches

  11. Impacts on Marine Recreational Fishing • The lost recreation value to local shore anglers • $15 million a year by 2030 • $17 million a year by 2080

  12. Coastal Real Estate

  13. Study Area

  14. GIS Real Estate Data

  15. Inundation for 2080-High

  16. Impacts on Coastal Property Value • The value of property at risk to sea-level rise in four counties over the next 75 years • $6.9 billion • Northern counties more vulnerable than the southern • Dare: 2% to 12% of the total property value

  17. Hurricane Activity and Intensity

  18. Hurricane Wind Speeds (Fran 1996)

  19. Impacts on Business and Industries • Business interruption losses in four NC counties due to increases in category 3 hurricane severity • $34 million per storm in 2030 • $157 million per storm in 2080

  20. Impacts on Agriculture • A category X hurricane now causes about Y in damage • 1 : $50 million • 2 : $200 million • 3 : $800 million

  21. Impacts on Forestry • Increased forest damage associated with an increase in storm severity from category 2 to category 3 • $900 million in additional damages

  22. Summary: Impacts of Global Warming on NC’s Coastal Economy • Over the next 75 years: • Lost recreational and tourism benefits total $3.9 billion • The value of property at risk to sea-level rise in four counties is $6.9 billion • Business interruption, agriculture and forestry losses due to increased storm severity are on the order of $1 billion in additional damage per category 3 storm event

  23. http://econ.appstate.edu/climate

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