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Finding Harm’s Way (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines). Department of Environment and Natural Resources Manila Observatory 14 April 2005. TYPHOON TRACKS. EARTHQUAKE EPICENTERS. RISK. likelihood of harm, loss, disaster. Physical impact of disturbance. HAZARD.

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Finding harm s way mapping disaster risk in the philippines

Finding Harm’s Way(Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)

Department of Environment and Natural Resources

Manila Observatory

14 April 2005



Earthquake epicenters
EARTHQUAKEEPICENTERS


RISK

likelihood of harm, loss, disaster


Physical impact of disturbance

HAZARD

Elements affected by hazard

EXPOSURE

Capacity of a community to prepare, absorb and recover from hazard

VULNERABILITY

RISK



Exposure
Exposure

  • Population

  • Natural habitat

  • Conservation areas

  • Groundwater


Exposure1
EXPOSURE

POPULATION DENSITY 2000

National Statistics Office

City/Municipal Population Data

1km x 1km grids


Exposure2
EXPOSURE

NATURAL HABITAT

Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities


Exposure3
EXPOSURE

CONSERVATION AREAS

Philippine Biodiversity

Conservation Priorities


Exposure4
EXPOSURE

GROUNDWATER

AVAILABILITY

Mines and Geosciences Bureau


Vulnerability
Vulnerability

  • Human Development Index

    • Education

    • Health

    • Economy

  • Urban centers

  • Socio-eco pressures

  • Transport


Vulnerability1
VULNERABILITY

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)

UNDP

Education

Health

Income


Vulnerability2
VULNERABILITY

HIERARCHY OF URBAN CENTERS

Task Force on Human Settlements, Development Academy of the Philippines


Vulnerability3
VULNERABILITY

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PRESSURES

Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities


Vulnerability4
VULNERABILITY

TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities


Exposure vulnerability
EXPOSURE/VULNERABILITY

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (2000)

POPULATION DENSITY 2000


Hazards risks
Hazards/Risks

  • Natural

    • Typhoon

    • Drought (El Nino)

    • Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide)

    • Volcano

    • Tsunami

  • Anthropogenic

    • Deforestation

    • Mining

    • Climate change (temperature,rainfall)


Hazard
HAZARD

TYPHOON

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

(Tropical Depression, Tropical Storms,

Typhoons, Super typhoons)

0.25º x 0.25º grids

(1945-2001)


Risk typhoon
RISK (Typhoon)

Ifugao

La Union

Cagayan

Ilocos Sur

Albay

Mountain Province

Kalinga

Pangasinan

Sorsogon

Pampanga

Camarines Sur

Catanduanes

Nueva Ecija

Ilocos Norte

Northern Samar

Tarlac

Apayao

Rizal

Benguet

Camarines Norte


Hazard1
HAZARD

EL NINO

IPCC-DDC-CRU

0.5º x 0.5º grids

(1971-2000)


Risk drought el ni o
RISK (Drought/El Niño)

Sulu

Basilan

Maguindanao

Lanao Del Sur

Lanao Del Norte

Davao Del Sur

Misamis Occidental

Sarangani

Zamboanga Del Sur

South Cotabato

Zamboanga Del Norte

North Cotabato

Sultan Kudarat

Siquijor

Tawi-tawi

Negros Oriental

Camiguin

Davao del Norte

Misamis Oriental

Bukidnon


Hazard2
HAZARD

EARTHQUAKE

National Geographic Data Center

0.25º x 0.25º grids

(1963-2001)


Risk earthquake
RISK (Earthquake)

Tarlac

Zambales

Pangasinan

Western Samar

Davao del Norte

Surigao Del Norte

Surigao Del Sur

Albay

Rizal

Cavite

Cebu

Occidental Mindoro

Camarines Sur

La Union

Pampanga

Batangas

Sarangani

Masbate

Laguna

Metro Manila


Hazard3
HAZARD

EARTHQUAKE-INDUCED

SHALLOW LANDSLIDES

PHIVOLCS


Risk eq induced landslides
RISK (EQ-Induced Landslides)

Albay

Rizal

Cebu

Camarines Sur

Tarlac

Zambales

Pangasinan

La Union

Pampanga

Western Samar

Sarangani

Masbate

Negros Oriental

Laguna

Misamis Occidental

Capiz

Davao del Norte

Surigao Del Norte

Bataan

Leyte


Hazard4
HAZARD

DISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANOES

PHIVOLCS


Risk volcano
RISK (Volcano)

Sulu

Albay

Tarlac

Zambales

Negros Oriental

Pampanga

Batangas

Davao del Norte

Biliran

Camiguin

Laguna

Sorsogon

South Cotabato

Camarines Sur

Quezon

North Cotabato

Bukidnon

Cagayan

Leyte

Negros Occidental


Hazard5
HAZARD

TSUNAMI

Environmental and Natural Resources Atlas of the Philippines, ECPF


Risk tsunami
RISK (Tsunami)

Albay

Cavite

Cebu

Zambales

Pangasinan

La Union

Pampanga

Batangas

Sarangani

Masbate

Negros Oriental

Metro Manila

Surigao Del Norte

Bataan

Leyte

Surigao Del Sur

Bulacan

Romblon

Bohol

Misamis Oriental


Hazard6
HAZARD

PROJECTED

TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Commonwealth and Scientific Research Organization

5.625º x 3.2º grids

(2066-2095)


Risk temperature
RISK (Temperature)

Sulu

Basilan

Lanao Del Sur

Maguindanao

Lanao Del Norte

Davao Del Sur

Zamboanga Del Sur

Tawi-tawi

Misamis Occidental

Camiguin

Siquijor

Misamis Oriental

Cebu

Agusan Del Norte

Zamboanga Del Norte

Albay

Sarangani

Negros Oriental

Negros Occidental

Ifugao


Hazard7
HAZARD

PROJECTED RAINFALL CHANGE

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

3.75º x 2.5º grids

(2066-2095)


Risk rainfall change
RISK (Rainfall Change)

Albay

Pampanga

Ifugao

Rizal

Cavite

Sorsogon

Laguna

Biliran

Batangas

Pangasinan

Masbate

Metro Manila

Tarlac

Nueva Ecija

Northern Samar

Aklan

Capiz

La Union

Western Samar

Romblon


Hazard8
HAZARD

DEFORESTATION

Global DEM

Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities


Hazard9
HAZARD

MINING

Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities


Volcano

Tsunami

Typhoons

EQ-Induced

Landslides

Rainfall

Temperature

El Niño

Earthquake


In sum harm s way
In sum, harm’s way:

  • Typhoon

    • Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)

  • Drought (El Nino)

    • Mindanao (central, west)

  • Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + Tsunami

    • Northwest to southeast diagonal across RP

  • Volcano

    • Luzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central, east), Mindanao (central)

  • Climate Change

    • Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)

    • Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)


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