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IEDC 2007 National Conference • September 18, 2007. Who are the Baby Boomers?. This is the issue:.

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this is the issue
This is the issue:
  • Starting in five years and lasting for more than a decade, the nation, states, and localities will face a huge potential loss of their most productive and skilled workers due to retirement,
  • while…
  • the younger workforce will be too small, unskilled and inexperienced to fill the gap.
slide4

Economies and Employers

Governments

Unprecedented skills and workforce shortages

Declining labor productivity

Enormous health and services expenses

Declining revenues

in this session we will explore

What impact this demographic situation will have on labor markets and employers

What is being done at the national and state levels to meet the challenge

What employers are doing now to meet the challenge

What areas can do now to prepare for the future

In this session we will explore:
the speakers
The Speakers
  • The Situation
    • George Robertson:
    • America’s Communities Workforce 2010
  • Solutions Being Taken
    • Bill Fredrick:
    • Public/Private/Non-Profit Sector Efforts
america s communities workforce 2010

AMERICA’S COMMUNITIESWORKFORCE 2010

George Robertson

Cenla Advantage Partnership

September 18, 2007

IEDC Annual Conference

slide9

ELEMENT ONE…TECHNOLOGY EXPLOSION

  • Growth of knowledge is exponential
  • Decade of the nineties…all knowledge on Planet Earth will double
total number of pages on the world wide web
TOTAL NUMBER OF PAGES ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB

200 BILLION

DOUBLING EVERY 6 MONTHS

technical information now doubling every two years
TECHNICAL INFORMATION NOW DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS

A student starting a four-year engineering degree last September…

Will have to re-learn as a junior what they were taught as a freshman, because it will be outdated.

2010 american reality
An unprecedented number of baby boomers will retire in the U.S.

And be replaced by a smaller generation

…less well educated

…less prepared with specialized skills needed by a high-tech economy

2010 AMERICAN REALITY
too many workers with the wrong skills
Majority of parents, students, and educators have outdated at best and misinformed at worst knowledge of new career opportunities…

And they know even less about what education or specialized training is needed for these high-paying careers

TOO MANY WORKERS WITH THE WRONG SKILLS
getting the wrong degrees
GETTING THE WRONG DEGREES

More U.S. students degrees last year in Parks and Recreation

than in ElectricalEngineering

engineering degrees
UNITED STATES

All Bachelor Degrees Engineering

71,386

65,195

Electrical Engineering

1988 24,367

2001 12,292

60% foreign students

ENGINEERING DEGREES
threatened by global higher education trends
THREATENED BY GLOBAL HIGHER EDUCATION TRENDS

U.S. college graduates with engineering/technology majors: 17%

China: 52%

Korea: 34%

element two an aging workforce
ELEMENT TWO: AN AGING WORKFORCE

1976: 60% U.S. workforce under 40….

2006: 52% over 40

the us talent pool of skilled workers
THE US TALENT POOL OF SKILLED WORKERS…

will shrink by 6% during the 2010 decade

“There has never been anything like today’s aging population…the potential economic meltdown it might bring.”

Edward E. Gordon

www.imperialcorp.com

over 50 of all engineers in the united states
OVER 50% OF ALL ENGINEERS IN THE UNITED STATES…

Are over age 40

Only 4% of NASA scientists and engineers are under 30

threatened by global competition
THREATENED BY GLOBAL COMPETITION …….

World population growing younger

World labor supply growing 80% faster than U.S.

there are more people in india under the age of 10

THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE IN INDIA UNDER THE AGE OF 10

…than there are people in the United States

in thirty minutes of this presentation
IN THIRTY MINUTES OF THIS PRESENTATION

Babies born in the U.S.

360

Babies born in China

1,464

Babies born in India

2,106

the top 25 of china s students
THE TOP 25% OF CHINA’S STUDENTS…

are more than the entire student population ofNorth America

where are all the supervisors and managers
WHERE ARE ALL THE SUPERVISORS AND MANAGERS?

Valley of the Baby Bust:

Generation X

for rural and small city america an even greater problem

FOR RURAL AND SMALL-CITY AMERICA, AN EVEN GREATER PROBLEM….

The young… the restless…

Generation Y larger but migratory…

The out-migration of our youth

creative class a paradigm switch
CREATIVE CLASS…A PARADIGM SWITCH

Magnet centers….”These places are talent magnets and talent aggregators. Their key function is to provide a regional talent pool into which firms can dip as needed and from which new ideas and firms bubble up…..places have replaced companies as the key organizing units in our economy.”

Richard Florida

The Rise of the Creative Class

the magnet centers keep expanding
THE MAGNET CENTERS KEEP EXPANDING

88 Largest MSA’s (over 500,000 population) represent as of 2005 63% of US population

baby boomers 79 million strong
Have long distorted U.S. population balance

70 million will exit labor force in next 18 years

TO BE REPLACED BY

40 MILLION WORKERS

BABY BOOMERS79 MILLION STRONG
boomer retirment at risk industries illinois study
BOOMER RETIRMENT….at-risk industries…Illinois Study

Education 17.8%

Manufacturing 16.4%

Mining 16.2%

Other Services 16.2%

Transport/warehouse 16.2%

Healthcare 15.5%

Finance 14.9%

aging workforce us dol studying 30 states
IST state report Iowa 2000-2004

Manufacturing18.3% over 55 22.4% in rural areas

15% workers statewide over 55

99 Counties: 15 had 20% of workforce over 55

99 Counties: 95 had increase in older workers

MSA’s 13.8%; rural 16.5%

55+ industry sectors: mining 23%, education 22%, real estate 21%, utilities 20%

Oldest industry: agriculture 7.4% over 65

AGING WORKFORCE US DOL STUDYING 30 STATES
boomers by selected occupation impact bls 1998 0ver 45yrs
...BOOMERS BY SELECTED OCCUPATION IMPACT (BLS,1998,0ver 45yrs)

Farmers 68.5%

Clergy 56.9%

Millwrights 56.6%

Dentists 51.3%

Teachers 50.3%

Telecom Installers 49.0%

Tool and Die Makers 46.7%

nursing already in crisis
80% Master-level nurses retiring next 5 years

38% US Nursing Schools report current faculty shortages

USDHHS NURSING SHORTAGES PROJ.

2008 450,000

2020 808,000

NURSING: ALREADY IN CRISIS
why aren t we talking about
WHY AREN’T WE TALKING ABOUT?
  • 85% Science/math teachers K-12 retiring next 5 years
  • Average age of a plumber in America: 58 years
  • Machinists/millwrights: old and older
what will baby boomers do
50% say they will work into their 70’s

WHY?

Money

Health Insurance

Boredom

BUT…

A significant number will change career fields

WHAT WILL BABY BOOMERS DO?
will boomers really retire
BOOMERS 55-64

MALES:68% currently working

FEMALES77% currently working

Labor-force participation ofthose over 55 has to increase by 25% starting in 2011 to maintain current levels of U.S. productivity

WILL BOOMERS REALLY RETIRE?
brookings institute study 2007 on leading edge boomers
BROOKINGS INSTITUTE STUDY 2007 ON LEADING-EDGE BOOMERS

More bad news for rural and small-city America…

BOOMERS AREON THE MOVE, ALSO

pre seniors age 55 64 growing on the move
World War II generation (over 65 years)

Continues to move West, with the exception of California and the addition of Florida

Leading-edge boomers

MOVING

Southwest, Southeast, and Northwest

PRE-SENIORS AGE 55-64 GROWING-ON THE MOVE
leading edge boomers fastest growth
Large MSA’s

Las Vegas, NV

Austin, TX

Raleigh, NC

Atlanta, GA

Phoenix, AZ

Portland, OR

Albuquerque, NM

Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX

Orlando, FL

Jacksonville, FL

Small SMA’s

Santa Fe, NM

Anchorage, AK

Bend, OR

Coeur d’Alene, ID

Boise City, ID

St. George, UT

Fairbanks, AK

Flagstaff, AZ

Olympia, WA

Ft. Collins, CO

LEADING-EDGE BOOMERS FASTEST GROWTH
u s center for strategic and global studies
U.S. CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND GLOBAL STUDIES

“ Countries will have to race against time to ensure their economic and social fabric against the shock of global aging.”

a thought do our communities realize they are in a race against time
A thought..do our communities realize they are in a race against time?

“If everything seems under control, you’re just not going fast enough.”

Mario Andretti

a thought for community economic development policy
A THOUGHT FOR COMMUNITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY

Without the workforce of the future…

YOU HAVE NO FUTURE

a final thought
A FINAL THOUGHT….

“When the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is in sight!!”

Jack Welch, former CEO, General Electric

slide46
GEORGE L. ROBERTSON, PRESIDENT

P.O. BOX 465

ALEXANDRIA LA. 71309

1-318-767-3001

WWW. CAPCENLA.ORG

the need to retain
The Need to Retain
  • Increasing US labor participation needed among 55+ year-olds for 2% annual economic growth
    • 2003: 77.6%
    • 2010: 90.4%
    • 2020: 91.6%

(Source: Strategies to Retain Older Workers, Pension Research Council Working Paper, The Wharton School, 2004)

national governors association
National Governors Association
  • Recognized the issue of massive Boomer retirement and its broad-based threat
  • State-based strategy taken: one-year, 8-state Policy Academy
  • Arizona as mentor
  • Interact with peers and national experts
  • Next 2 years in planning stage; RFPs
national governors association1
National Governors Association

GOAL:

Ensure states are providing employment and volunteer options to future and new retirees, including baby boomers

national governors association2
National Governors Association

Policy Academy Objectives:

  • Position states as role models
  • Identify needs of the labor market
  • Review current state policies affecting older adults
  • Develop new information tools
  • Enhance training and educational opportunities
state initiatives
State Initiatives
  • Wyoming
    • Boomers and Business Initiative
  • New York
    • Project 2015
  • Utah
    • Aging Initiative

(Source: NGA Center for Best Practices)

state efforts
State Efforts
  • Iowa, Mississippi, Pennsylvania
    • modified unemployment compensation policies
  • California, Florida, Kansas, and West Virginia
    • higher-ed phased retirement options
  • Iowa
    • phased retirement for state employees; a model for the private sector
  • Wisconsin
    • employer assessment toolkit to evaluate mature-worker friendliness

(Source: NGA Center for Best Practices)

aarp aging workforce advisory council
AARP Aging Workforce Advisory Council
  • Serve as a think tank
  • Provide understanding of the effects of the global aging of the workforce
  • Be a “sounding board” and implementation vehicle for targeted industry groups
aarp aging workforce advisory council1
AARP Aging Workforce Advisory Council
  • Share information on workplace best-practices re mature workers
    • recruitment
    • retention
    • and (re)-training
  • Annual workforce summits and position papers on the issue
private sector actions
Private-Sector Actions

For employers…

…the impending large Boomer retirement is more an operational issue than an HR issue

private sector actions1
Private-Sector Actions

Employer options

  • Recruit younger workers
  • Become more involved in workforce development and training; consortia, partnerships
  • Greater use of apprenticeships, internships
  • Outsource work (domestic, foreign)
private sector actions2
Private-Sector Actions

Employer options

  • Hire recruiters, contractors, staffing services
  • Import foreign labor (H1-B, H2-B, TN, L-1 visas)
  • Adapt innovative flexible HR policies for not-employed and a multi-generational and diverse workforce; employer-of-choice policies;
  • Improve productivity
  • Keep employees past age 65
  • Downsize, close or relocate
private sector actions3
Private-Sector Actions

Retaining mature workers frequently makes the best business case

  • Cost effective
  • Knowledge retention
  • Operating efficiency
  • Quality workers

…but all workforce-related efforts would be needed or considered

private sector actions4
Private-Sector Actions

How employers are preparing to keep mature workers

(Source: Older Workers Survey, Society for Human Resource Management 2003)

private sector actions5
Private-Sector Actions

Incentives being used to retain mature employees

  • Flexible work arrangements
  • Training to upgrade skills
  • Time off for volunteerism
  • Phased retirement
  • Reduced shift work
  • Job rotation
  • Sabbaticals
  • Reduced responsibility
  • Mentoring as a primary job

(Source: Valuing Experience: How to Motivate and Retain Mature Workers, The Conference Board, 2003)

private sector actions6
Private-Sector Actions

IBM

  • Transition to Teaching aims to help older employees transition into second careers as math and science teachers
  • Pilot program in New York and North Carolina

(Source: NGA Center for Best Practices)

private sector actions7
Private-Sector Actions

CVS Pharmacy

  • Mentoring program for senior pharmacists to high school students and apprentice pharmacist technicians
  • Training opportunities for mature workers at the company

(Source: NGA Center for Best Practices)

private sector actions8
Private-Sector Actions

Prudential Financial

  • Programs and policies for Boomers as caregivers for elderly parents

(Source: NGA Center for Best Practices)

local boomer impact
Local Boomer Impact

The local Boomer impact …

…will vary significantly by location.

Impact factors include labor-force dynamics and the size of the Boomer population.

WDG’s Boomer Stress Index shows considerable impact variations among the 362 metro areas.

what can local edos do
What Can Local EDOs Do?

“For every complex, difficult problem, there is a simple, easy solution…and it is wrong.”

H.L. Mencken

what can local edos do1
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • First
    • For this complex situation, avoid the single-solution approach
    • Use a full-solution approach
what can local edos do2
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Second
    • Identify the issues
    • Recognize how your area will be affected and know your assets/challenges
    • Create a plan, segment tasks, and activate
    • Promote public recognition of the issue
what can local edos do3
What Can Local EDOs Do?

Identify stakeholders, build alliances, leverage work, coordinate, and share resources and tasks with…

what can local edos do4
What Can Local EDOs Do?

…SHRM/employers

…Workforce Boards

…Universities/colleges/tech, public schools

…State/local AARP office

…Government officials

…Residential developers and realtors

…Unions

…Intra-state alliances

what can local edos do5
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Serve as a catalyst for educator-training programs
    • Match needs of employers
    • Adult, non-credit
    • For-credit
    • Employer customized
  • Work for improved public schools, basic skills, housing
what can local edos do6
What Can Local EDOs Do?

Serve as a catalyst for employer action…

…Retain and hire employees 55+ as policy

…Knowledge retention

…HR/management policies for mature workers

…Multi-generational, diverse workforce management

…Training programs

…Consortia development for training academies

…Career planning for X and Y generations

what can local edos do7
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Promote the value of the mature workforce
  • Promote the business case for mature workers
  • Provide new information tools and improve existing systems that connect 55+ workers to employment opportunities
  • Job, career counseling for Boomers, 65+
  • Y generation: basic skills, career planning, STEM careers (America Competes Act)
what can local edos do8
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Retain and recruit skilled Boomers
  • Retain and recruit X’ers and Y’ers
  • Retain college/university students
  • Institute “Come Home” programs
  • Labor-law lobbying for 65+ workforce regulations
  • Understand QOL and career issues, and other needs for each group
what can local edos do9
What Can Local EDOs Do?
  • Collect and publicize employer best-practices
  • Provide immigrant workforce recruiting assistance
    • Visa information
    • Recruiter, labor broker coordination
  • National immigration policy lobbying
  • Be creative
  • With partners: collaborate, innovate, advocate
slide76
505 Morris Avenue, Suite 102

Springfield, NJ 07081

973-379-7700

[email protected]

www.wadley-donovan.com

sharon younger president younger associates
Sharon Younger, President

Younger Associates

summary
Summary
  • In five years, we will see the frontal wave of Boomer retirements…..
  • …….which will grow in intensity and last for over 10 years, likely creating significant economic and workforce impacts, including large scale across the board labor shortages;
  • …….and the X and Y generations will not be able to fill the void under current conditions
  • …….while impact intensity will vary geographically
summary1
Summary

But corrective action has started and something can be done…

  • …by local and state EDOs
  • …by employers
  • …by educators
  • …by WIBs
  • …by governments
  • …by non-profits
  • …by others
summary2
Summary
  • This action must be comprehensive and collaborative, but new models and mindsets are needed.

We have some time!

follow up
Follow-up
  • For copies of this presentation and reference material from the National Governors’ Association, the Arizona Mature Workforce Initiative, the WDG Boomer MSA Stress Index, the WDG MSA Talented-Young Index, and other resources and sources used in this presentation, visit:
  • www.wadley-donovan.com/workforce
slide82
THANK YOU!

www.wadley-donovan.com/workforce

Background Image credit: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration

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