1 / 21

Multiobjective consumer choice modelling based on depending-on-context preference

Multiobjective consumer choice modelling based on depending-on-context preference. Presenting author : Evgenij Ozhegov NRU HSE - Perm Dept . of Applied mathematics and social system modelling MCDM 2011, 14.06.2011. Outline.

marc
Download Presentation

Multiobjective consumer choice modelling based on depending-on-context preference

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Multiobjective consumer choice modelling based on depending-on-contextpreference Presentingauthor: EvgenijOzhegov NRU HSE - Perm Dept. ofAppliedmathematicsandsocialsystemmodelling MCDM 2011, 14.06.2011

  2. Outline • Generalizationoftheknowledgeaboutrecentconsumerchoicemodellingapproaches; • Considerationofparticularmodels; • Formulatingofthemultiobjectiveproblemofconsumerchoice; • Empiricalissueofusingsuchmodel.

  3. Structureofconsumerchoicemodels • Bythenumberofconsumersmodelsaredividedon: • Individualdemandmodels • Aggregateddemandmodels • Intermsoftimefactor: • Staticmodels • Dynamicmodels • Bythenumberofconsumerchoicecriteria: • Singlecriterionmodels • Multicriteriamodels • Bythehomogeneityoftheproducts: • Modelswithhomogeneousproducts • Modelswithheterogeneousproducts

  4. Classicalrationaldemand • ) – setofconsumerproducts, where – amountofconsumedproducti. • meansthatbetter (stronglypreffered) than • - notworse (weaklypreffered) • - equvivalent • Rationalstrongpreferencecoherent, antireflexive, transitive, asimmetric. • Weakpreference reflexive, coherent, transitive.

  5. Classicalrationaldemand • The utilityfunctionintroducedasthefunctionwhich: • . • ConsumerchoiceproblemischoosingthemostpreferedsetforeachbudgetconstraintB, definedbythepairas • – budgetconstraint • – ClassicalMarshalliandemand

  6. Whythismodelcannotbeused? Because ofthenon-rationalpreferences! Thereare: • Problemswithequvivalence (lackofknowledgeaboutthealternatives); • Problemswithtransitiveness (cupofteawith1 mgofsugar cup of tea with2 mg of sugar … cup ofteawith20 g ofsugar, butnotcupofteawith 1 mgofsugar cup of tea with20 g of sugar); • Dependenceofthepreferencesoncontext (fashion, externalconditions); • Dependenceonthequestionpreposition[Canheman, Tversky, 1979]; • Dependenceofthepreferencesonthetime.

  7. Particularmodels (2) Usingofthegeneralizedutilityfunction [Shafer, 1974]; (5) Usingofthediscountedutilityintheproblemofintertemporalchoice (Exponential, hyperbolicaldiscounting) [Shane, Loewenstein, O'Donoghue, 2002]; (3) Modelsof price setting for new product (innovators - followers) [Bass, 1989]; (3) MAUT (multiattributiveutilitytheory) - dividing the utility of product on attributes[Dyer, 2005]; (3) Using of the preference which is depended on context [Ozhegov, 2010]: – externalfactorsandif that and then

  8. Multicriteriaconsumerchoiceproblem (*) • – productset • – utilitycriteria

  9. Solutionconceptusingthemethodofcriteriaweighting Ifthanthek-thcriterionismoreimportantthanthel-th. Thentheproblem(*)willbe:

  10. Howtousethatmodel? • Whyindifferentcontextweseedifferentbehavior (exceptfordifferent<p,I>)? • Becauseofthedifferentweightsofthecriteriaduringthetime!

  11. Dynamicalcase (**) • – productset, – i-th productconsumptiondensityinthet timemoment; • – utilitycriteria; • ; • – weightofj-thcriterionimportancedependingonthecontext);

  12. Dynamicalcase (**) • I – consumerexpenditurefortheperiod; • [0..T] – timeinterval; • – weightedutilitycriterion; • ; • – budgetconstraint.

  13. Fixingtheconsumtioneffects • Consumptioneffectisconstantlyobserveddependenceoftheutilityofsomeproductontheexternalfactors. • Howcanwefixtheexistenceofthateffectanditsfunctionalform? • Denotethatproductas and willbeallothergoods(a quantity that characterizes the change in amountof the consumer basket, with the exception of the investigated product). • - j-th criterionparametersvector

  14. Fixingtheconsumptioneffects • foreacht • Denoteasthevalueofrelativeimportanceofthecriteriawhichdescribestheinvestigatedeffect • willbethefixedrelativeimportanceofothercriteria

  15. Empiricalissue: Giffeneffecttobuckwheat • Thepricesforthebuckwheatrosefrom 45 rublesperkgto 140 insummer 2010; • TherewasunreasonablyhighdemandforthebuckwheatundertheGiffeneffect; • Thesamplecontained 888 observationsoftheconsumersfrom 25.04.2010 to 13.08.2010 (111 days, 8 randomconsumersineachday) inbigretailstore; • Knowntheamountofbuckwheatbought, thepricefor 1 kg, expenditureandtheweightedpricelevelforeachproductset.

  16. Empiricalissue: Giffeneffecttobuckwheat • At eachtimeteachconsumerperforms a consumptionofproductsetwhichisclosetooptimal • Wheremistheamountofcriteriawhichhetakesinaccount

  17. Empiricalissue: Giffeneffecttobuckwheat • ; • Numberofestimatedparamsforeachm is6m+2; • Estimatedbythemethodofmaximumlikelihood; • Thebestmodelwiththeminimum AIK comparedwithbestmodelwithoutcriterionwith

  18. Thebestmodel: 2 criteria Importance of Priceforbuckwheat

  19. Thebestmodel: predictingpower Priceforbuckwheat

  20. Thankyoufortheattention! Yourquestions

  21. References • Бусыгин В.П., Желободько Е.В., Цыплаков А.А. Микроэкономика – третий уровень. Новосибирск: Новосибирский государственный университет, 2003. • Ожегов Е.М.. Моделирование потребительского выбора нетранзитивными предпочтениями, Сборник материалов XIII Международной научно-практической конференции «Актуальные вопросы экономических наук», Новосибирск, 2010, c. 36-40. • Подиновский В.В. Анализ и поддержка решений. Введение в теорию важности критериев в многокритериальных задачах принятия решений, Москва, Физматлит, 2007. • В. В. Подиновский, В. Д. Ногин. Парето-оптимальные решения многокритериальных задач, Москва, ФИЗМАТЛИТ, 2007. • Ariel Rubinstein: Lecture Notes in Microeconomic Theory, Princeton University Press, 2006 • Frederick Shane, George Loewenstein and Ted O'Donoghue. Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review. Journal of Economic Literature. Vol. 40, No. 2, 2002, pp. 351-401. • Frank M. Bass, A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables, Management Science, Vol. 15, No. 5, 1989, pp. 215-227. • James Dyer. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 2005, Volume 78, IV, 265-292. • W. J. Shafer. The Nontransitive Consumer, Econometrica 42, 1974: 913–919.

More Related