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Michigan Political Climate 2010

Michigan Political Climate 2010. Michigan Association of Health Plans May 11, 2010 By Steve Mitchell. Michigan’s Legislative and Executive Leadership in 2010. Lansing Leaders. Next year, all of the people in the last slide will NOT be in the offices they currently hold.

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Michigan Political Climate 2010

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  1. Michigan Political Climate 2010 Michigan Association of Health Plans May 11, 2010 By Steve Mitchell

  2. Michigan’s Legislative and Executive Leadership in 2010

  3. Lansing Leaders Next year, all of the people in the last slide will NOT be in the offices they currently hold. Governor Granholm, Lt. Governor John Cherry, Speaker of the House Andy Dillon, and Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop are all leaving office at the end of the year because of term limits. Some are seeking other offices.

  4. Lansing Leaders Majority Leader Bishop is running for Attorney General. Speaker Dillon is running for Governor. After John Cherry withdrew from his race for Lt. Governor. He spent $1.2 million and could not gain traction.

  5. Campaign 2010: An Unprecedented Year • This is an historic election. For the first time ever, we have open races for the state’s four constitutional offices, the entire U.S. House delegation, every seat in both the state House and Senate, and two seats on the State Supreme Court. • And it all happens with reapportionment coming and with so many leaving the legislature, especially the Senate, because of term limits.

  6. Campaign 2010: An Unprecedented Year • The governorship will be open (no incumbent running) for only the third time in a half-century. • All four constitutional offices – Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General – will be open simultaneously for only the second time since 1946, the year after the end of World War II.

  7. Campaign 2010: An Unprecedented Year • More than five dozen state legislators will leave office at the end of 2010 because of term limits. Others will run for higher office and not seek re-election even though they are eligible to do so. • 29 of 38 State Senate seats are open. • 35 of 110 State House seats are open with 14 more State Representatives running for higher office. • Therefore, nearly half of the 148-member Legislature currently serving could be gone from office by 2011, replaced by the largest infusion of new lawmakers in almost 80 years.

  8. Campaign 2010 An Unprecedented Year • Control of the Supreme Court again hangs in the balance. Democrats could easily regain a majority of the justices for the first time since 1998 by winning just one of the two seats that will be at risk in 2010. • Two members, Justice Bob Young and Justice Elizabeth Weaver are up for re-election. • The big question is what will Weaver do?

  9. Campaign 2010: An Unprecedented Year • And finally, the issue of whether Michigan should hold another Constitutional Convention is on the ballot this year. That question must be voted upon by the state’s voters every 16 years, and 2010 is the year it again automatically appears on the ballot. • Polling shows it has strong support this year until voters find out how much it will cost. Then support collapses.

  10. Political Climate • The political climate in Michigan and the United States is one of anger and partisanship. In 2008, voters were scared, now they are angry. • In Michigan, 69% of voters agree that they are “mad as hell and won’t take it any more.” Forty-two percent “strongly agree.” • Poll data from Michigan mirrors what we see nationally.

  11. National Polling • National polls show President Obama with about a 48% job approval – 46% disapproval. • The generic Congressional ballot question is now + 2% Republican. In 2008, at this exact time, it was +10% Democrat. A huge shift of 12% in two years. • Democrats could lose control of the US House and perhaps the US Senate.

  12. Do you want your representative in Congress re-elected?

  13. Overall opinion of the tea-party movement

  14. Race for Governor • This year, with Governor Granholm term-limited out, there will be an open seat for the first time since 2002 and only the second time since 1982. Granholm’s job approval is only about 33%. • State polls show the Republican candidates for governor are leading the Democratic candidates by between 7%-10%. • Pundits from both parties say Republicans are likely to regain the governorship in 2010.

  15. Race for Governor- GOP Former State Representative/ State Senator and current Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard Attorney General Mike Cox Doctor and State Senator Tom George West Michigan Congressman Pete Hoekstra Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder

  16. Race for Governor - Democrats State Representative (and former state Senator) Alma Wheeler-Smith from the Ann Arbor area Lansing Mayor (and former State Representative and State Senator) Virg Bernero Speaker Andy Dillonis from Redford and has been Speaker for almost 4 years.

  17. Race for Governor - GOP • Most recent polls show Hoekstra with a lead of between 6%-13% over either Cox or Snyder, depending on the poll. • Hoekstra (27%) leads Cox (21%) with Snyder (15%) and Bouchard (13%) in third and fourth according to the last EPIC-MRA poll. (3/28-31/2010) • Hoekstra (27%) leads Snyder (14%) and Cox (13%) with Bouchard (9%) in single digits according to Rasmussen (4/22/2010). • George is at between 1%-3% in both polls.

  18. Race for Governor – GOPFollow the Money “Politics runs by the golden rule, he who has gold rules.” Anonymous “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” Former California Speaker of the House Jess Unruh So, who has the money on the GOP side:

  19. Race for Governor – GOPFollow the Money Snyder raised $3.2 million ($2.6 of his own money) and spent $1.9. Cash on hand of $1.4 Cox raised $1.8 million, spent $.37 million, cash on hand of $1.47 Bouchard raised $.9 million, has $.7 mill COH Hoekstra raised $475,000 and has $170,000 cash on hand. So, although Hoekstra leads, he has no money. That is a REAL problem for Hoekstra.

  20. Race for Governor - Democrats There is no clear leader. Depending on the poll, Dillon leads Bernero by between 1 and 9%. However, between half and two-thirds of all Democratic Primary voters are undecided. The abortion issue may well determine the nominee. Dillon is Pro-Life, Bernero Pro-Choice. It’s hard to win as a Pro-Life Democrat.

  21. Race for Governor – DemocratsFollow the Money • There isn’t much to follow at this point. • Alma Wheeler-Smith raised about $10,000. • VirgBernero entered the race after January 1 and did not have to file campaign receipts and expenditures for 2009. However, he has support from a number of unions and that will mean money. • Andy Dillon had not yet announced and therefore did not have to file either. He says he has commitments for more than $1 million.

  22. Attorney General - Republicans Michigan Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop from Oakland County Former Congressman and Appeals Court Judge Bill Schuette from Midland

  23. Attorney General - Democrats David Leyton, Genesee County Prosecutor David was a partner in a local law firm and served 12 years on the Flint Township Board of Trustees, serving first as trustee and later as clerk. 

  24. Secretary of State – Republicans Sen. Michelle McManus (Northwest MI) Sen. Cameron Brown (South Central MI) Calhoun County Clerk Ann Norlander (Battle Creek) State Rep. Paul Scott (Grand Blanc) Oakland County Clerk (and 2008 LG candidate) Ruth Johnson.

  25. Secretary of State - Democrats Jocelyn Benson, Wayne State University Professor She serves as the founder of the Richard Austin Center on Election Law and Administration Some say she has the backing of George Soros.

  26. Federal Healthcare Is still a very “hot button” issue. Support for the bill remains at about 40% while opposition is at about 54% both in Michigan and nationally. It will be the defining issue of the 2010 election. If support increases it will help Democrats. If opinion remains the same, it will benefit Republicans. Since passage, support has changed very little.

  27. Michigan Healthcare Sen. Tom George (R.-Kalamazoo) and Rep. Marc Corriveau (D.-Northville) have been working on a package of state bills to increase the number of insured people in Michigan. These bills have been introduced and the sponsors would like to see them move forward. It is unlikely they will move between now and the election. Lame duck is another matter!

  28. Michigan PACS Let me repeat a slide from earlier: “Politics runs by the golden rule, he who has gold rules.” Anonymous “Money is the mother’s milk of politics.” Former California Speaker of the House Jess Unruh So, who has the PAC money in the healthcare industry?

  29. Campaign FinanceTop State PACS (Healthcare) • 3 BCBS of MI / BCBSM PAC Total 2007-08 • $754,696 (2009-10) $657,371 (2007-08) +14.8% $1,055,212 • 12 MI Health & Hospital Assn. / Health PAC • $414,909 (2009-10) $408,777 (2007-08) +1.5% $622,695 • 40 MI Assn. of Health Plans PAC / MAHP PAC • $110,941 (2009-10) $110,089 (2007-08) +0.8% $197,169

  30. Top State PACS BCBSM raised and spent five times more money than MAHP in the 2008 election cycle. Michigan Health & Hospital Association raised and spent three times more money than MAHP. In this cycle, BCBSM has raised almost $100,000 more than they raised in 2007-08. To put that into perspective, they have raised $100,000 more already than we have raised period.

  31. Top State PACS In the 2008 lame duck session of the legislature, we overcame enormous odds and prevented bad health care legislation from passing. We need to be prepared for bad legislation again this year. It is critical that we have as “loud a voice” as possible to beat back any bad bills this year.

  32. MAHP Strategic Plan • Rick and the entire MAHP team is drafting and refining a plan that will allow MAHP to be an even more important voice in state politics than it has been before. • He and the team are preparing for the huge new influx of elected officials next January. • We are working to identify who will be likely key leaders on both sides of the aisle in the legislature next January.

  33. MAHP Strategic Plan As good as Rick, his team, and all of you are, the bottom line is still the bottom line. It is not an accident that some interest groups in Lansing go a quarter of a century without losing an important legislative battle.

  34. MAHP --- Make a Difference If we want to go to the next level, we need to increase the amount we raise for our MAHP PAC! If we doubled our contributions, we would become an even bigger “player” in Lansing. Rick Murdock is building the team, now we need the money to grow even more! Give early and give often!

  35. Thank you! Steve Mitchell Mitchell Research & Communications 314 Evergreen, Suite B East Lansing, MI 48823 SMM96@aol.com Office (517) 351-4111 Cell (248) 891-2414

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