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The National Political Climate

The National Political Climate. Presentation by Celinda Lake to the CWA Legislative-Political Conference 2006. Key Points. Opinions of Bush’s agenda and leadership qualities are dropping.

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The National Political Climate

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  1. The National Political Climate Presentation by Celinda Lake to the CWA Legislative-Political Conference 2006

  2. Key Points • Opinions of Bush’s agenda and leadership qualities are dropping. • In ballot tests, Democrats are at highs not seen since the GOP in 1994 – but voters view the parties as equally distasteful. • While the map and the mood still help incumbents, several have seen their re-elect and job performance drop. Voters want members who will bring checks and balances to Washington. • Voters continue to trust Republicans on terrorism and foreign policy – but by a much reduced margin. • The mood is for change. Voters also respond to arguments about economic security and the cost of corruption.

  3. A clear majority believe the country is headed down the wrong track Do you think things in this country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track? Wrong Track Right Direction Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06

  4. A similar majority of Americans disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? Disapprove Approve CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults

  5. Voters are divided onBush’s leadership qualities Please tell me whether the following statements apply to Bush or not. ABC News/Washington Post – 3/2-5/06 – 1000 adults

  6. Majorities of Americans disapprove of Bush’s performance on key issues CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1,018 adults ** Gallup – 2/6-9/06 – 1,002 adults

  7. Iraq and the economy dominate voters’ concerns What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults

  8. On their personal top issue, voters trust Democrats over Bush or the GOP Congress Thinking about the issue you just mentioned [“number one issue you and your family are concerned about”], who do you think would do a better job solving that problem ___ or the Democrats in Congress? Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll -- 1000 LVs, SPLIT SAMPLE – 2/12-15/06

  9. Voters trust Bush on terrorism,but are split on Iraq and taxes Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job of handling this issue -- President George W. Bush or the Democrats in Congress. DEM-REP +21 +13 +18 +12 +8 -3 -2 -17 Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll -- 1000 LVs, SPLIT SAMPLE – 2/12-15/06

  10. Voters are split on who shares their values and who has the right priorities Please tell me, for each one, who would do a better job on this issue or better represents this quality: the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress. DEM-REP +20 +6 -2 +10 Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06

  11. Congressional Democrats and Republicans are similarly distasteful to voters For each one, please tell me if you have heard of that person or organization, and if so, whether you have a favorable of unfavorable impression of that person or organization. [Is that somewhat or strongly?] 42 -9 51 45 -8 53 44 -4 48 46 -1 45 Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06

  12. Voters overwhelmingly blame both parties for Washington corruption Which party –the Republican Party or the Democratic Party or both parties equally – do you think is most responsible for the current problems facing Congress on the issues of lobbying reform and Congressional reform? Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06

  13. While voters are unhappy with Congress, they approve of their member CONGRESS “YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS” 56% -19 63% +38 37% 25% Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 2/12-15/06

  14. Nationally, Americans plan on voting for the Democratic candidate by a 14-point margin If the election were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district? +14Democrat Largest advantage for an opposition party since the GOP in early 1994. [Gallup] Republican Democrat CNN/USA Today/Gallup – 1020 RVs – 2/28-3/1/06

  15. In contested House districts, the generic Democrat is favored by 4 points If the election were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you vote for the Republican candidate in your district or the Democratic candidate in your district? +4Democrat Republican Democrat Undecided Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – n=241 – 2/12-15/06

  16. The most competitive Senate races are in all regions of the country Casey, Jr. – 50 Santorum* – 40 Brown – 36 Chafee* – 38 1/25/06 2/6/06 Morrison – 50 Burns* – 43 McCaskill – 47 Talent* – 44 2/7/06 1/16/06 Ford, Jr. – 38 Bryant – 37 Brown - 37 DeWine* – 46 OPEN (Frist) 10/20/05 2/16/06 Klobuchar – 45 Kennedy – 42 Cardin – 41 Steele – 32 OPEN (Sarbanes) 2/20/06 11/1/05 OPEN (Dayton) Menendez – 42 Kean, Jr. – 37 Cantwell* – 50 McGavick – 39 12/4/05 OPEN (Corzine) 3/9/06 Ten most competitive U.S. Senate races, as chosen by The Hotline. Survey qualities vary. Candidates determined by primary leaders. Asterisk denotes incumbents.

  17. Key Issues Iraq The Economy Medicare Minimum Wage

  18. Americans are pessimistic about Iraq – their #1 issue Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out? How would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to bring stability and order to Iraq? 62% -26 Stayed Out 36% Right Thing CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults

  19. Voters do not support an immediate withdrawal of all troops from Iraq Withdraw some Which comes closest to your view about what the U.S. should do now about the number of U.S. troops in Iraq? Withdraw all Keep as now More CBS News - 2/22-26/06 – 1018 adults

  20. Voters do not believe either partyhas a plan for Iraq Do you think the BUSH ADMINISTRATION does or does not have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq? Do you think the DEMOCRATS IN CONGRESS do or do not have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq? ABC News/Washington Post – 3/2-5/06 – 1000 adults

  21. Americans remain pessimistic about the economy Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? * Darker colors show intensity ABC News/Washington Post, Jan.29, 1,000 adults, MOE +/-3%

  22. Voters tend to be pessimistic about their children’s standard of living in the future Thinking about the economy and standard of living, do you think your children will be better off, worse off, or about the same as you when they are your age now. Well what would you imagine it will be like for today’s children? “The economy frustrates me. I have two teenaged sons at home. My dad used to beat me over the head you know to go to college or you’re finished, go to college or you’re finished. I didn’t listen to my dad, I didn’t finish college. He was right. For my sons, it’s even more dramatically true.” OH Man Lake Research/Tarrance Battleground Poll – 1000 LVs – 10/9-12/05

  23. The more seniors learn about Medicare Part D, the less they like it As you know, there is now a new prescription drug benefit under Medicare for seniors. How do you rate the program – mostly positively or mostly negatively? Democracy Corps – 1/25-30/06 – 1,000 likely voters

  24. Minimum wage ballot initiatives won big in 2004 FLORIDA NEVADA Bush: 52 / Kerry: 47 Bush: 50 / Kerry: 48

  25. The minimum wage is a winning issue within both parties After I read each one, please tell me if you voted yes, in favor of the initiative, or no, against the initiative, or did you not vote on this initiative? Lake Snell Perry/ACORN/BISC – November 2004

  26. Minimum wage initiatives do not provoke a backlash • In Florida, 23 percent of strong Democrats – but only 11 percent of strong Republicans – were motivated by a living wage ballot measure. • In Nevada, 36 percent of strong Democrats – but only 7 percent of strong Republicans – were motivated by a living wage ballot measure.

  27. Strong Minimum Wage Themes • No one who works full-time should live in poverty. • Minimum wage workers make only $206 a week, many of them parents and adults trying to raise children and make ends meet. • Raising the minimum wage shows that we value hard work over welfare and will save taxpayers money. • Personal stories are a powerful way to contextualize this issue and relate it to values of hard work and family. • A populist theme juxtaposing the minimum wage with CEO salaries is also strong with base voters.

  28. The National Political Climate Presentation by Celinda Lake to the CWA Legislative-Political Conference 2006

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