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Outlook for Major Crops United States Department of Agriculture. Presented to American Farm Bureau Atlanta, Georgia January 10, 2011 http://www.usda.gov/oce/speeches/index.htm. Wheat Cash Prices. Source: USDA-AMS. World Wheat Production. Global Wheat Production & Consumption.

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outlook for major crops united states department of agriculture

Outlook for Major CropsUnited States Department of Agriculture

Presented to

American Farm Bureau

Atlanta, Georgia

January 10, 2011

http://www.usda.gov/oce/speeches/index.htm

slide3

Wheat Cash Prices

Source: USDA-AMS.

world wheat production
World Wheat Production

December 10, 2010

slide5

Global Wheat Production & Consumption

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide6

Major Exporter Wheat Ending Stocks

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide7

Russia Wheat and Coarse Production

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide8

Russia Wheat and Coarse Grain Feeding

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide9

Russia Wheat and Coarse Grain Exports

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide10

Russia Wheat Imports

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide11

Russia Wheat and Coarse Grain Ending Stocks

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide12

Season Summary

Drought developed during the growing season, reducing

winter wheat yield potential.

Cool, wet weather in the South

and East led to good to excellent

crop prospects, offsetting

production losses in the West.

slide13

Wet Weather Disrupted Wheat Harvest

Recent, flooding rains are a

concern, however, hampering

winter wheat harvesting

and reducing crop quality.

December 10, 2010

slide17

Corn Cash Prices

Source: USDA-AMS.

world corn production
World Corn Production

December 10, 2010

slide19

Global Corn Production & Consumption

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide20

Global Corn Food, Seed, and Industrial Use

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

renewable fuel standard
Renewable Fuel Standard

Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

slide23

U.S. Ethanol Production Capacity

2010

2011

2009

2008

2007

2006

Source: Production capacity from Renewable Fuels Association and USDA projections. RFS from Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

slide24

U.S. Corn Used for Ethanol

Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, December 10, 2010.

slide25

Ethanol Producer Net Returns Above Variable Costs

13 cents/gal. (12/30/10)

Note: USDA-WAOB estimates based on USDA-AMS plant reports and DOE-EIA estimates and forecasts for natural gas and electricity prices.

slide26

Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Prices

Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB)

Ethanol

Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.

slide27

Ethanol and RBOB Nearby Futures Spreads

51-cent blender credit

45-cent blender credit

Blending incentive (1/3/11) = $0.56

(Ethanol – RBOB)

Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures.

slide28

U.S. Weekly Gasoline ProductionAll Gasoline and Ethanol Blends

Source: U.S. Dept. of Energy, Energy Information Administration.

u s blended motor gasoline consumption
U.S. Blended Motor Gasoline Consumption

7.9 bil. gal.

Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) and Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

slide30

Soybean Cash Prices

Source: USDA-AMS.

world soybean production
World Soybean Production

December 10, 2010

u s domestic biodiesel margin
U.S. Domestic Biodiesel Margin

Blending Credit Expired

u s soybean exports
U.S. Soybean Exports

Billion Bushels

world cotton production
World Cotton Production

December 10, 2010

slide40

Agricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook Board

new crop futures prices averages of december settlement prices
New-crop Futures PricesAverages of December Settlement Prices

2008 crop

2009 crop

2011 crop

2010 crop

Note: Corn and soybean prices from new-crop December and November CBOT futures contracts. HRW wheat prices from new-crop July KCBT futures contract.

slide48

New-crop Soybean/Corn Price Ratios2007-crop, 2009-crop, and 2011-crop thru Jan. 3, 2011

Soybean area expanded in 2009

Corn area expanded in 2007

Note: Chicago Board of Trade daily settlement prices.

slide49

Pre-planting Net Returns Outlook

Note: For 2006-2010, net returns are above variable costs and reflect trend yields and USDA price and production cost forecasts as of February for the respective years. Projections for 2011 are based on USDA-ERS projected total operating costs for 2011 as of November 2010 and current Central Illinois corn and soybean cash forward bids for fall 2011 delivery (1/3/11). For wheat, gross revenue based on the currently quoted Western Kansas HRW cash forward bid for June/July 2011 delivery (1/3/11).

retail prices for fertilizers in illinois
Retail Prices for Fertilizers in Illinois

Source: USDA/AMS, Illinois Production Cost Report (Bi-weekly).

major field crop planted area crp
Major Field Crop Planted Area & CRP

295.3

287.7

277.0

?

Source: USDA-NASS, 2010 planted area forecast from the December 10, 2010, Crop Production report. CRP data from USDA-FSA..

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