the plan

1. the analysis of mergers:some observationsP.A. Geroski,London Business SchoolandThe Competition CommissionApril, 2003

2. the plan * European merger review *merger analysis for dummies * the pre-merger situation * the post-merger equilibrium * so, what does all of this add up to? * minimizing type I errors * minimizing type II errors

3. European merger review the main issues: * protocol * process * substance * dominance or SLC? * efficiency defences

4. merger analysis for dummies * the basic problem: learning about the unknowable * the method of two counterfactuals: * the pre-merger situation * the post-merger equilibrium

5. the pre-merger situation should it be a description of the actual pre-merger situation, or a counterfactual? * failing firms * other merger partners

6. the post-merger equilibrium forming views about the likely post-merger equilibrium: * are endogenous changes exogenous? * failure rates * merger waves * regime changes

7. so, what do we think about all of this? forming expectations about the likely effects of the merger: * the case for minimizing type I errors * the case for minimizing type II errors