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Experiments!. Direct Influence. Three Degrees of Influence. Alter Influence Persists. Alter ’ s Alter Influence Persists. Period 1. Period 2. Period 3. Period 4. Eleni. Effects Persist Over Time. Lucas. Lucas. Lucas Lysander. 1. Erika James. Erika. Erika. Erika Harla. 2.

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Alter’s Alter Influence Persists


Period 1

Period 2

Period 3

Period 4

Eleni

Effects Persist

Over Time

Lucas

Lucas

Lucas

Lysander

1

Erika

James

Erika

Erika

Erika

Harla

2

Degrees of Separation from Eleni

Jay

Jay

Brecken

3

Behavior Spreads

3 Degrees

of Separation


The network acts like a matching grant
The Network Acts Like aMatching Grant

Each a Person Gives

in First Round....

CausesOthersto Give






Smilers

Non

Smilers


Voting
Voting

  • Voting highly correlated in friends & family(Berelson, Lazarsfeld, McPhee 1954)

  • Mobilization is “contagious” (Nickerson 2008)

  • Can voting spread online?

  • We conducted a massive randomized controlled trial on Facebook in 2010


Social Message

N = 60,055,176



Message Only

N = 611,044


No Message

N = 613,096


Yahtzee
Yahtzee!

  • Hash voter data, use hash to assign a group

  • Measure groupturnout

  • Hash Facebook data, use hash to assign a group

  • Assign turnout based on match groups

  • Repeat until desired level of accuracy is obtained

  • Do stats on group turnout vs. group treatment


Vote Validation

  • 6 Million Users

  • 13 States (1/3 of population)

  • “Yahtzee” procedure to protect anonymity

  • 33% match rate



a

Informational Message

Social Message


Measuring social contagion
Measuring Social Contagion

Compare political behavior

of

friends of the treatment group

to

friends of the control group


Are close friends more influential
Are close friends more influential?

  • Friendship on Facebook

  • “Find a Friend” project

  • Contacts a measure of tie strength


Measuring “Close” Friends

Think of the people you have spent time with in your life, your friends with whom you have a close relationship. Your friends might also include family members, neighbors, coworkers, classmates, advisors, and so on.

Please list your best friend first, then your next best friend, and so on. You may name up to ten people.



Distribution of friends
Distribution of Friends

  • 8.3 Billion Non-close Friends

  • 767 Million Close Friends

  • 16 Billion Close Friends of Close Friends


Social contagion
Social Contagion

Does your friend’s mobilization affect your voting behavior?


Testing for significance

2/5

3/5

7/15

6/15

10/25

8/25

Testing for Significance

RANDOM NETWORK

OBSERVED NETWORK







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