Experiments!
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Experiments!. Direct Influence. Three Degrees of Influence. Alter Influence Persists. Alter ’ s Alter Influence Persists. Period 1. Period 2. Period 3. Period 4. Eleni. Effects Persist Over Time. Lucas. Lucas. Lucas Lysander. 1. Erika James. Erika. Erika. Erika Harla. 2.

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Experiments!

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Experiments!


Direct Influence


Three Degrees of Influence


Alter Influence Persists


Alter’s Alter Influence Persists


Period 1

Period 2

Period 3

Period 4

Eleni

Effects Persist

Over Time

Lucas

Lucas

Lucas

Lysander

1

Erika

James

Erika

Erika

Erika

Harla

2

Degrees of Separation from Eleni

Jay

Jay

Brecken

3

Behavior Spreads

3 Degrees

of Separation


The Network Acts Like aMatching Grant

Each a Person Gives

in First Round....

CausesOthersto Give


105 Close Friends in a Dorm


Friends and Ethnic Clubs


Friends, Clubs, Roommates,


Friends, Clubs, Roommates,plus Facebook!


Smilers

Non

Smilers


Voting

  • Voting highly correlated in friends & family(Berelson, Lazarsfeld, McPhee 1954)

  • Mobilization is “contagious” (Nickerson 2008)

  • Can voting spread online?

  • We conducted a massive randomized controlled trial on Facebook in 2010


Social Message

N = 60,055,176


Message about user voting appears in news feed


Message Only

N = 611,044


No Message

N = 613,096


Yahtzee!

  • Hash voter data, use hash to assign a group

  • Measure groupturnout

  • Hash Facebook data, use hash to assign a group

  • Assign turnout based on match groups

  • Repeat until desired level of accuracy is obtained

  • Do stats on group turnout vs. group treatment


Vote Validation

  • 6 Million Users

  • 13 States (1/3 of population)

  • “Yahtzee” procedure to protect anonymity

  • 33% match rate


Randomization Check


a

Informational Message

Social Message


Measuring Social Contagion

Compare political behavior

of

friends of the treatment group

to

friends of the control group


Are close friends more influential?

  • Friendship on Facebook

  • “Find a Friend” project

  • Contacts a measure of tie strength


Measuring “Close” Friends

Think of the people you have spent time with in your life, your friends with whom you have a close relationship. Your friends might also include family members, neighbors, coworkers, classmates, advisors, and so on.

Please list your best friend first, then your next best friend, and so on. You may name up to ten people.


Measuring “Close” Friends


Distribution of Friends

  • 8.3 Billion Non-close Friends

  • 767 Million Close Friends

  • 16 Billion Close Friends of Close Friends


Social Contagion

Does your friend’s mobilization affect your voting behavior?


2/5

3/5

7/15

6/15

10/25

8/25

Testing for Significance

RANDOM NETWORK

OBSERVED NETWORK


0 = +0.011


0 = N.S.


0 = N.S.


Friend Effects


Total Effects


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