The demographic outlook for higher education and health care
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The Demographic Outlook for Higher Education and Health Care. Jeff Tayman, Ph.D. Lecturer, Dept. of Economics UCSD 858-581-6710 jtayman@san.rr.com. Aims of Presentation. Review changing demographic landscape Foresee implications of these changes Identify challenges in store.

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The Demographic Outlook for Higher Education and Health Care

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The Demographic Outlook for Higher Education and Health Care

Jeff Tayman, Ph.D.

Lecturer, Dept. of Economics

UCSD

858-581-6710

jtayman@san.rr.com


Aims of Presentation

  • Review changing demographic landscape

  • Foresee implications of these changes

  • Identify challenges in store


Future Demographic Truths

  • More newcomers seeking a better future

  • An aging population

  • Increasing ethnic diversity

  • A stubbornly persistent digital divide


Determinants of U.S. Population


* 2007 to 2010 Estimated


Immigrants Concentrate Geographically

Foreign Born Population, 2000

NY

12 %

IL

5 %

CA

28 %

NJ

5 %

FL

9 %

TX

9 %


An Aging Population


Baby Boomers Move into Retirement Years

Males

Females

Females

Males

Male

Female

2000

2030


Increasing Ethnic Diversity


Ethnicity and Age Interaction


A Lingering Digital Divide


Digital “Have’s” and “Have Not’s”

  • Digital literacy” is now essential

  • Exposure to computers & Internet remains uneven

    • At home: Economic limits

    • In schools: Hardware/connectivity limits

  • Colleges can play pivotal role in bridging the digital divide


The Widening Gap in Internet Use

Percent using Internet

60

NH White

25point gap

40

17point gap

Hispanic

20

0

1998

2003

Source: A Nation Online: How Americans Are Expanding Their Use of the Internet (2002).


The Widening Gap in Internet Use

Percent using Internet

60

NH White

25point gap

40

19point gap

20

Black

0

1998

2003

Source: A Nation Online: How Americans Are Expanding Their Use of the Internet (2002).

.


Postsecondary Enrollment Dynamics


Other Enrollment Factors


New Immigrants Span Extremes on Education

100

Graduate/professional degree

8%

11%

16%

College graduate

80

19%

Percent ofpersons ages 25+

60

High school/some college

36%

61%

40

20

34%

Less than high school

16%

0

U.S.-born

Immigrants(post 1990)


Other Health Care Factors


Diverse Health Risks: NH Whites

  • Increased risk of breast cancer

  • Higher incidence of melanoma

  • Higher risk of osteoporosis


Diverse Health Risks: Blacks

  • High blood pressure

  • Higher incidents of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and sickle cell anemia

  • Glaucoma leading cause of blindness

  • Higher death rate from breast cancer

  • Higher likelihood of prostate cancer


Diverse Health Risks: Asians

  • Higher incidence of cervical, stomach, and liver cancer

  • Higher rates of coronary heart disease

  • Higher risk of osteoporosis

  • Many lactose intolerant


Diverse Health Risks: Hispanics

  • Higher incidence of diabetes

  • Increased risk of hypertension

  • High incidence of cervical cancer


Summary

  • Deliver effective services to a rising and diverse clientele

  • Manage a maturing work force

  • Meet emerging needs in an information driven economy

  • Find adequate resources


The Demographic Outlook for Higher Education and Health Care

Jeff Tayman, Ph.D.

Lecturer, Dept. of Economics

UCSD

858-581-6710

jtayman@san.rr.com


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