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Economic Outlook for The U.S., Georgia, and Higher Ed

Economic Outlook for The U.S., Georgia, and Higher Ed. Jeffrey H. Dorfman. Slowly Going Back to Work?. Lower Workforce Participation. Change is Not Due to Old People. But Some Have Not Gone Back to Work. Federal Spending and Revenue. US Budget Picture – What Changed?.

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Economic Outlook for The U.S., Georgia, and Higher Ed

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  1. Economic Outlook forThe U.S., Georgia, and Higher Ed Jeffrey H. Dorfman

  2. Slowly Going Back to Work?

  3. Lower Workforce Participation

  4. Change is Not Due to Old People

  5. But Some Have Not Gone Back to Work

  6. Federal Spending and Revenue

  7. US Budget Picture – What Changed? From 2001 to 2013, all figures adjusted for inflation and population growth.

  8. Why Can the Government Afford This?

  9. US Budget Outlook • Republicans and Democrats will continue to make last minute compromises. • Spending is starting to increase again ($65 billion this year). • Sequester was working, so it is over. • Democrats will push for more tax revenues, but probably won’t get much if any. • We will continue with deficits that are 2-3 times what used to be the historical record.

  10. Minimum Wage

  11. Recent Trends In Productivity Source: BLS

  12. More on Productivity and Labor Costs Source: BLS

  13. Obamacare Problems Still Developing • Website still cannot communicate well with insurance companies. • Website security still lacking. • Insurance Bailout looms if the sign-ups are too old & sick. • People are starting to discover issues with doctors, co-pays, etc. • This will still be problem for Democrats for at least this year. • Key next problem: what happens when people are asked to pay their high deductibles and co-pays (or even their premiums).

  14. Georgia Budget Outlook • Revenues for FY14 are +5.0% so far for FY14, exceeding the 4.6% needed for budget. • February was up 5.3% with (sales + car title) taxes leading the way (+6.5%). • UGA looks to have gains in budgeted funds, a plus strong capital budget, working now on raise pool.

  15. Georgia Economic Outlook • Georgia appears to be finally growing faster than the US average again (after 5 years of slower growth). • Georgia economy should grow at 3+% in 2014 • Personal and disposable income are both growing, so consumer spending should increase in the 3-4% range • Georgia is continuing to outperform right now at landing big new job gains (Engineered Floors, State Farm, GM, AT&T, Toyo, Hostess Brands, Tyson Foods).

  16. Higher Education Funding • Here at UGA: • State = 29% • Tuition/fees = 25% • Grants = 27% • Sales/service/ auxiliary = 18% For just resident instruction it is: State=34/Tuition=34 /Grants=32%

  17. National Faculty Salary SituationDoctorate-Granting Institutions Source: College and University Professional Association for Human Resources

  18. Tuition Trends • UGA has averaged a 9.4% per year increase in tuition and fees since 1999-2000 Source: College Board

  19. Florida = -40.7% Georgia = -29.7% 5 year change Outlook has to be an improvement compared to this data. North Carolina = -12.5% Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers National avg = -23%

  20. And now … questions • Thanks for listening !

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