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Revisions in euro area GDP and retail trade: Reliability, timeliness and infra-annual distribution

Revisions in euro area GDP and retail trade: Reliability, timeliness and infra-annual distribution. Heinz Dieden European Central Bank – DG Statistics. OECD Short-Term Economic Statistics Working Party (STESWP); Paris, 23-24 June 2008. 1. Introduction. Key elements Reliability/revisions

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Revisions in euro area GDP and retail trade: Reliability, timeliness and infra-annual distribution

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  1. Revisions in euro area GDP and retail trade:Reliability, timeliness and infra-annual distribution Heinz Dieden European Central Bank – DG Statistics OECD Short-Term Economic Statistics Working Party (STESWP); Paris, 23-24 June 2008

  2. 1 Introduction • Key elements • Reliability/revisions • Timeliness • Infra-annual distribution of revisions • Indicators • GDP volume growth (q-o-q); sa & wda • Constant retail trade turnover (m-o-m); sa & wda • Euro area aggregates • GDP: 2000 Q1 until 2006 Q4 • Retail trade 2000 January until 2007 April

  3. 2 Dataset • Real-time database • ECB’s revision database: from June 2001 onwards • OECD’s MEI Release and Revisions database • ECB’s Monthly Bulletin • Timeliness • Calendar days • 30 days per month

  4. 3 Revision indicators • Size of revisions • Average absolute revisions • Range of revisions • Direction/sign of revision • Average revision • Changes in sign • Upward/downward revisions • Volatility of revisions • Standard deviation

  5. 4 GDP • Flash/first estimate versus second estimate • Flash estimate from 77 days to 44 days • Flash/first estimate versus annual update • Annual update = estimate available in the 3rd quarter of the following year • Flash/first estimate versus current estimate • Not full cycle of revisions for more recent data

  6. Revisions for GDP 5

  7. Evolution of GDP flash estimates 6

  8. Timeliness and average of revisions (GDP flash vs current estimate) 7

  9. 8 Summary for GDP revisions • Euro area revisions are small and estimates are stable • Size: 0.06ppt (flash), 0.09ppt (annual), 0.12ppt (current) • Sign: almost negligible (0.01ppt, 0.0 ppt and 0.0ppt) • Volatility: std of 0.15 for annual update • Timeliness • considerable improvements from 70 to 44 days • Flash estimate did NOT increase revisions, rather opposite • Infra-annual distribution • Revisions differ across quarters • Higher revisions mostly in 1st half of the year

  10. 9 Retail trade • Flash estimate since January 2004 • Two period: before and after flash • Flash/first estimate • versus 1 month later • versus 2 months later • versus 1 year later • versus current estimate

  11. Evolution of euro area retail trade growth 10

  12. New: Timeliness and average revisions for euro area retail trade turnover 11

  13. 12 Summary for retail trade revisions • Periods with rather high (early-2000, turn of 2001; mid-2002 until mid-2004) and with smaller revisions • Size: large before the flash (0.55ppt (annual)) significant thereafter (0.36ppt (annual)) • Sign: small, but changed direction prior (-) and after (+) flash • Volatility: decrease since flash from 0.71 to 0.43 (1 year later estimate)

  14. 13 Summary for retail trade revisions (cont’d) • Timeliness • considerable improvements from 70 to 35 days • Initial problems, but flash did NOT increase revisions • Infra-annual distribution • No general rule, but pattern differ across months • Somewhat higher in 1st half of the year

  15. 14 Conclusions/caveats • Revisions in euro area aggregates relatively small for GDP and significant for retail trade • Improved timeliness did not lead to higher revisions • Infra-annual revisions not equally distributed • Small sample (from 2000 only) • No full revision cycle for ‘current’ estimates • National revisions tend to outweigh each other • Changes in country coverage not considered

  16. Thank you for your attentionQuestions and comments?

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