Assessment of climate and UV impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems:

1. Assessment of climate and UV impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems: ACIA’s relevance to CEON Terry Callaghan and Margareta Johansson Abisko Scientific Research Station, Sweden University of Sheffield, UK on behalf of the chapter 6 authors CEON

2. AimTo present tentative problems of understanding climate change impacts arising from ACIA that could be adressed by CEON CEON

3. Scenarios of meanannual temperaturechange for 2070 basedon 19 GCMs (Taalas et al.) Jouni Räisinen Background: Models suggest that some climate changes will continue and may be amplified in the Arctic and ozone depletion will continue CEON

4. Habitat change Fragmentation by land use and communications Disturbance in the Arctic extends for 4-10 km from the infrastructureNellemann et al 2001 CEON

5. ACIA objectives To evaluate and synthesize knowledge on climate variability, climate change, and increased ultraviolet radiation and their consequences. To provide useful and reliable information to the governments, organizations and peoples of the Arctic on policy options to meet such changes. CEON

6. ACIA Products • Scientific Document • Overview Document • Policy Document • Outreach CEON

7. ACIA Report Outline THE ARCTIC REGION  Chapter 1: An introduction to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Compilers: Henry Huntington and Gunter Weller THE ARCTIC AS PART OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM Chapter 2: Arctic Climate System and its global role Lead authors: Gordon McBean Chapter 3: Atmospheric ozone and UV-B radiation Lead authors: Betsy Weatherhead and Petteri Taalas Chapter 4: Future Changes of Climate: Modeling and Scenarios for the Arctic Region Lead authors: Vladimir Kattsov, Erland Källén CEON

8. ACIA Report Outline PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL SYSTEMS AND RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Chapter 5: The Cryosphere and Hydrologic Variability Lead author: John Walsh Chapter 6: Arctic Tundra and Polar desert Ecosystems Lead author: Terry Callaghan Chapter 7: Impacts of climate change and UV radiation on Freshwater Arctic Ecosystems Lead authors: Jim Reist, Fred Wrona and Terry Prowse Chapter 8: Marine Systems Lead author: Harald Loeng CEON

9. ACIA Report Outline IMPACTS ON HUMANS AND THEIR ACTIVITIES Chapter 9: The Changing Arctic: Indigenous PerspectivesLead author: Henry Huntington Chapter 10: Management and conservation of WildlifeLead author: David Klein Chapter 11: Hunting, Fishing, Herding, GatheringLead author: Mark Nuttall Chapter 12: Fisheries and AquacultureHjalmar Vilhjamsson and Alf Håkon Hoel Chapter 13: Forests, Land Management, and AgricultureLead author: Glenn Juday Chapter 14: Human Health Lead author: James Berner and Christopher Furgal Chapter 15. Infrastructure, buildings, support systems and industrial facilities Lead author: Arne Instanes CEON

10. ACIA Report Outline SYNTHESIS Chapter 16. Assessing vulnerabilities: A strategy for the Arctic Lead Author: James McCartney and Marybeth Long Martello Chapter 17. Synthesis of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Lead Author: Gunther Weller CEON

11. DRAFT Chapter 6 Terrestrial Ecosystems Lead author: Terry Callaghan (SE, UK) Contributing authors: Lars Olof Björn (SE), Yuri Chernov (Ru), Terry Chapin (USA), Torben Christensen (SE), Brian Huntley (UK), Rolf Ims (N), Dyanna Jolly (Ca), Nadya Matveyeva (Ru), Nicolai Panikov (Ru, USA), Walter Oechel (USA), Gus Shaver (USA). Consulting authors: Heikki Henttonen (Fi), Josef Elster (Cz), Sven Jonasson (DK), Ingibjörg S. Jónsdóttir (N), Kari Laine (Fi), Sibyll Schaphoff (DE), Stephen Sitch (DE), Kari Taulavuori (Fi), Erja Taulavuori (Fi), Christoph Zöckler (UK) Research assistant: Margareta Johansson (SE) CEON

12. Assessment of Terrestrial Ecosystems • The approaches: • Monitoring • Modelling • Indigenous observations • Experiments • The structure: • Paleo and current changes • Individual species • Ecosystem structure • Ecosystem function • Regional processes/feedbacks • Uncertainties and • recommendations • Subregional synthesis CEON

13. Species will relocate rather than adapt in situ Islands are major barriers to dispersal.. Whereas some areas such as the north slope of Alaska are poised for change

14. BUT: Our knowledge of rates of relocation is poor Our knowledge of the impact of geographical barriers - and corridors - are poor Our knowledge of current changes is poor WE NEED Circum-arctic biodiversity monitoring with local peoples’ Participation wherever possible CEON

15. 4 9 22 75 Wrangel Island Biodiversity changes Some groups such as mosses, lichens, some herbivores and their predators are at risk, but productivity and number of species should increase. Biodiversity is more at risk in some subregions than in others CEON

16. WE NEED To reassess the nature of threats to species from long term climate change and UV change simulation experiments To identify and monitor currently widespread species that are likely to decline under climate change To redefine conservation and protection against climate and UV changes CEON

17. Mechanisms for species change Changes in animal and plant populations are triggered by trends and extreme events, particularly winter processes. CEON

18. BUTour information is very sparse WE NEED More scenarios of extreme events More observations involving local peoples of extreme events Long term experiments simulating extreme events More emphasis on winter processes

19. Advantage and Disadvantages of Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Conventional Science (TEK) (CS) + Quantitative + Wide Geographical Representation + Process-Based So Causes Understood + Long Time Series + Predictive + Year-Round Observations - Localised of Low Resolution Observations - Uncertainties difficult tomeasure - Causes of Change not Determined - Summer Bias - Often non Quantitative - Short Time Series Bottom Line: The two approaches are complementary CEON

20. Surprise aridification ?

21. Remotely Sensed Changes in Vegetation Productivity – Lack of validation? Myneni et al 2001 Myneni et al 1997 CEON Nemani et al 2003

22. Validation of Sensor Validation of Proxy Ground-Based Validation of Remote Sensing CEON

23. Carbon sinks and sources in the tundra Current models suggest that the tundra will become a sink for carbon because of the northward movement of vegetation zones that are more productive than those they displace. CEON

24. BUT There are contradictions between model projections, field experiments that warm ecosystems, geographical analogues and observations of carbon flux in some areas. NPP measurements are problematic. HIGH PRIORITRY NEEDS ARE: To establish long term, annual carbon monitoring throughout the circum-arctic region To develop models capable of scaling ecosystem processes from plot experiments to landscapes To develop observations, experiments and models to relate Disturbancesuch as aridification to carbon dynamics

25. Finally, we need to predict impacts and communicate at a local scale CEON

26. Particular needs that CEON can address are Stable international observing networks including local peoples that can also validate models and ground-truth satellite images Mechanisms to analyse existing observational materials (images) and data Interdisciplinary connections among the modelling communities and observational networks focusing on the transient Establish long term, large scale interaction experiments to simulate various aspects of changes in climate, UV and CO2 including extreme events High resolution models to simulate local changes and to aid visualisation by local peoples. Circumarctic funding to build on existing initiatives FATE, TTI, SCANNET, ITEX, ENVINET etc. THANK YOU