Pennsylvania Climate Impacts Assessment

1. Pennsylvania Climate Impacts Assessment Jim Shortle, Penn State University March 24, 2010

2. Major Components • PA Climate Futures • Agriculture • Aquatic Ecosystems/Fisheries • Energy • Forests • Human Health • Insurance • Outdoor Recreation • Water

3. Linkages Global Climate Economy in Rest of World Regional Economy

4. Approach • Climate Futures • Multi-model GCM averages • Two IPCC emissions scenarios • Sector impact studies • Largely based on literature review and synthesis

5. “High” emissions A2 scenario “Low” emissions B1 scenario Emissions Scenarios (Annual)

6. PA Climate Futures • Projections for the state constructed using averages of outputs from 14 GCMs • Multi-model mean provides a credible simulation of PA’s 20th Century Climate, and is superior to any individual GCM • Multi-model mean is slightly too cool and wet, and slightly muted in variability on sub-monthly time scales

7. Pa Very Likely to be warmer • All GCM models project warming through 2100 for both emissions scenarios • Warming for the next 20 years is independent of the emissions scenario • Warming by the end of the century is substantially dependent on the emissions scenario • A2 median projected warming about 4ºC • B1 median projected warming about 2ºC

8. Greater Warming in Summer than Winter Means

9. PA Likely to Be Wetter • Less model agreement on precipitation than warming • But >3/4 project increased annual precipitation through the century for both emissions scenarios • Like temperature, the change in precipitation does not vary with emissions scenario to mid-Century - but does beyond that • A2 median projected increase in annual average precipitation about 10% by 2100

10. Precip Increases greater in Winter than Summer • Average summer precipitation increase across all models is on the order of 0-5% during 2046-2065 and a little greater than that during 2080-2099. • Average winter precipitation increases is ~5-10% during 2046-2065 and 10-15% during 2080-2099

11. Some other Climate Results • Longer growing seasons, and fewer frost days, but also longer dry periods – soil moisture droughts a concern • Greater intensity of precipitation • Increased intensity but reduced frequency of tropical and extratropical systems

12. Water Resources • Floods:   Potential decrease in rain-on-snow events (good news), but more summer floods and higher flow variability. • Stream temperature:   Increase in stream temperature for most streams likely (e.g., bad for trout). Streams with high groundwater inflow less affected. • Snow pack:   Substantial decrease in snow cover extent and duration. •  Runoff:  Overall increase, but mainly due to higher winter runoff. Decrease in summer runoff due to higher temperatures.   

13. Water Resources • Groundwater:  Potential increase in recharge due to reduced frozen soil and higher winter precipitation. • Soil moisture:  Decrease in summer and fall soil moisture. Increased frequency of short and medium term soil moisture droughts.   •  Water quality:   Flashier runoff, urbanization and increasing water temperatures might negatively impact water quality.

14. Ecosystems Will Be Increasingly Stressed • Wetlands and headwater streams in Pennsylvania are already compromised in their ability to provide ecosystem services • Climate change will increase stresses on aquatic ecosystems • Increased stream temperatures • Increased flow variability • Impacts will be difficult to detect because of the continuation of other stressors such as development and invasive species

15. Agriculture Moderate warming (1 to 3ºC) could…… • Could increase yields of some major field crops (corn, hay, soybeans) • Harm yields of cool-temperature adapted fruits and vegetables (potatoes, and apples) while benefiting those suited to warmer temperatures (sweet corn) • Harm American grape varieties but create opportunities for European varieties • Increase dairy production costs but increase the attractiveness of PA to southern hog and poultry producers

16. Agriculture • More extreme warming poses greater problems • Droughts, pests could be problematic • Outcomes for PA farmers depend not only on climate change in PA, but what climate change does to agricultural markets and economies elsewhere • World prices • Shifts in location

17. Forests Species composition will shift as the climate becomes less suited to northern species and more suited to southern species

18. Forests Like agriculture • Economic productivity could increase • Benefits to the industry will depend on climate change impacts elsewhere • Disease, invasive species, fire risks also increase

19. Temperature Related Mortality Net impact unknown Heat adaptations include air conditioning, warning systems; low income assistance needed

20. Respiratory Disease

21. Accidents

22. Infectious Diseases • Vector Borne: Lyme, West Nile, St. Louis Encephalitis, Ehrilichiosis, Malaria • Water Borne: Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Campylobacter, Salmonella • Airborne: Influenza, Pneumococcus

23. Infections Diseases

24. Outdoor Recreation • Increased winter temperatures will shorten the season and increase the costs of downhill ski facilities – the economic viability of the activity will be diminished • Reduced snow cover will diminish opportunities for dispersed snow-based recreation (skiing, snow • Increased stream temperatures will affect the viability of wild and to some degree stocked trout populations • Increased temperatures will increase the number of fishing days • Longer and warmer summers will increase the demand for water-based recreation

25. Proactive State andLocal Adaptation Policy • Ag cultivars and practices • Forest management practices – cultivated forests with facilitated regeneration • Institutions and policies for water management in an environment in which water is increasing scarce and variable • Land use planning and building codes • Restoration of aquatic ecosystems such as streams and wetlands wherever possible • Expansion of public outdoor recreation facilities

26. New Research is Needed to Fully Understand Impacts • Climate downscaling • Reduce emission scenario uncertainty •  Detailed sectoral modeling studies •  Storm risk assessment • Hydrologic conditions at a small watershed scale •  Ability of already impacted systems to accommodate climate change • Health-climate-environment relationships

27. Questions?

28. http://enri.cas.psu.edu/announcements/ciar.pdf