Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment: HB 1303 Preliminary Findings

1. Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment: HB 1303 Preliminary Findings UW Climate Impacts Group JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Washington State University Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Climate science in the public interest

2. WARMEST THANKS!! • The Washington State Legislature. • The Dept. of Ecology and the Dept. of Community, Trade and Economic Development. • The leadership group at the expanded CIG: Co-P.I. Dennis Lettenmaier; Coordinators: Marketa McGuire Elsner, Jeremy Littell and Lara Whitely Binder. • To the leaders and members of the ten sub-groups. • We are honored!

3. WARMEST THANKS, cont’d. To the • Bullitt Foundation; • WA. Dept. of Ecology; • King County; • The NOAA Climate Program Office; (Our Conference Sponsors)

4. Overview • What climate is and what climate change means • What climate change puts at risk • Why climate change is a fact • Project description & team organization • What is significant about the project? • Overview of assessment (how assessment was conducted) • Relationship with the Preparation and Adaptation Working Groups (PAWGs)

5. What climate is & what climate change means [Source: Holdren 2008] Climate is the pattern of weather, meaning averages, extremes, timing, spatial distribution of… • hot & cold • cloudy & clear • humid & dry • drizzles & downpours • snowfall, snowpack, & snowmelt • zephyrs, blizzards, tornadoes, & typhoons Climate change means altered patterns. [Changes in globally averaged temperature are one measure of GCC. Other measures will include items listed above. Small changes in the index  big changes in the patterns.]

6. What climate change puts at risk [Source: Holdren, 2008] Climate governs (so climate change affects) • availability of water • productivity of farms, forests, & fisheries • prevalence of oppressive heat & humidity • formation & dispersion of air pollutants • geography of disease • damages from storms, floods, droughts, wildfires • property losses from sea-level rise • expenditures on engineered environments • distribution & abundance of species

7. Why Climate Change is a Fact • The earth is getting hotter, both land and ocean. • Atmospheric circulation patterns are changing. • Permafrost is thawing. • Arctic summer sea ice is thawing. • Surface melting on Greenland is expanding. • Sea level is rising. • All of the above are forced by human emissions of Green House Gases (GHG) over last 250 years (IPCC, 2007). Source: Holdren. 2008.

8. Background • Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO2 emissions • Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation, including climate change impacts assessment in cooperation with UW Climate Impacts Group

9. Collaboration with State Agencies Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303 Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx

10. Objectives of the Impacts Assessment Evaluate impacts of climate change for the 21st century • use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios • show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change • characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) • provide tools for policy makers and user groups • collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change Challenge team

11. Project Team • Forests • (D. McKenzie, J. Littell) • CIG, UW, USFS, Univ. ID • Coasts • (D. Huppert) • CIG, UW • Urban Stormwater Infrastructure • (A. Steinemann, D. Booth) • UW, Stillwater Sciences, King Co. Water and Land Resources Div., Northwest Hydraulic Consultants • Human Health • (R. Fenske) • UW, WSU, Institute for Chemical Process and Envir. Tech. - Canada, CA Air Resources Board • Adaptation • (L. Whitely Binder) • CIG, UW • Scenarios • (E. Salathé, P. Mote) • CIG, UW, PNNL • Hydrology and Water Resources • (D. Lettenmaier, M. Elsner) • CIG, UW • Energy – Hydropower • (A. Hamlet) • CIG, UW • Agriculture & Economics (Stockle, Scott) • WSU, USDA ARS, PNNL • Salmon • (N. Mantua) • CIG, UW

12. Assessment Overview:Study Region

13. What is Significant about This Project? • Large scope & sector diversity. (Atmosphere, ocean, mountains, water, fish, trees, wheat, potatoes, apples, people and their $ all in a single package). • Very high level of integration achieved. • Use of ensemble of 20 climate models narrows uncertainty to considerable extent. • Projected ranges of impacts at different locations and in different ecosystems quantified. • First time data products of such fine resolution will be freely available on the internet in such an integrated fashion.

14. How, in general, the project was conducted: • downscale global climate scenarios to regional scenarios, feed those results into VIC and DHSVM, feed those results into forest, agriculture, stormwater, energy, health models)

15. Assessment Overview:Technical Approach Global Climate Models Regional Climate Change Scenarios Precipitation, temperature Sea Level Rise Scenarios Hydrologic Models Regional Climate Models Sectors Urban Stormwater Infrastructure Preliminary Adaptation Options Sectors Hydrology & Water Management Energy Preliminary Adaptation Options Sectors Human Health Coasts Preliminary Adaptation Options Sectors Agriculture & Economics Salmon & Ecosystems Forests Preliminary Adaptation Options

16. Sector Objectives (1) • Scenarios • Projected changes in temperature and precipitation • Hydrology and Water Resources • Projected impacts on snowpack, soil moisture, streamflow • Energy • Projected impacts on hydropower production, heating and cooling demand • Agriculture & Economics • Projected impacts on yields of potatoes, apples, wheat • Salmon • Projected impacts on water temperature, flood and low flows • Forests • Projected impacts on tree growth, regeneration, fire, and insect outbreaks

17. Sector Objectives (2) • Coasts • Projected impacts on coastal homes, infrastructure, and commerce, through examination of several specific sites and physical threats • Urban Stormwater Infrastructure • Projected impacts on the capacity of stormwater facilities, or the disabling of key assets because of more severe flooding • Human Health • Projected impacts on illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality • Adaptation • Discussion of opportunities that enhance existing PAWG recommendations or provide additional adaptation options related to these same themes

18. Relationship with PAWGs