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Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues

Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues. K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. Prasanna and S.K. Patwardhan Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India.

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Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues

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  1. Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Implications for Water Availability Issues K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. Prasanna and S.K. Patwardhan Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

  2. Indian Summer Monsoon Flow

  3. Mean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000) Summer Monsoon (mm/season) Annual (mm/year)

  4. Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

  5. All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

  6. Agriculture Facts • India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them • Roughly 65% of the population is rural • India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period • Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force • Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP • In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4th in the world • About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture

  7. IRRIGATION

  8. Total Foodgrain Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall

  9. India’s Water Situation

  10. Proposed River Linkages

  11. Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian region Potential Impacts: • Water Resources • Agriculture • Sea Level Rise and many more sectors…

  12. Development of Future Scenarios of Rainfall & Temperature over India • IS92a (8 Coupled Atmos.-Ocean GCMs) • SRES A2 (5 AOGCMs) • SRES B2 (5 AOGCMs) Simulations are generally available for about 200 years (~1870s till 2100)

  13. 5 state-of-the-art climate models run until 2100 with various emission scenarios IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficient technologies A2: A very heterogeneous world with an emphasis on family values and local traditions B1: A world of ‘dematerialization’ and introduction of clean technologies B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability

  14. AOGCM simulations used from IPCC-DDC Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A, SRES (A2/B2) scenarios) simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for 2021-40; 2041-60; 2061-80; 2081-2100 compared to the baseline period of 1961-90 are generated for the Indian region. The models used are: 1.Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model. 2. Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model. 3. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) model. 4. Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model. 5. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model. 6. Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3) 7. Max-planck Institute(MPI) model. 8. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model.

  15. Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs

  16. Annual Cycles of All-India mean rainfall in the control simulations of coupled AOGCMs

  17. Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs

  18. AOGCM Scenarios of all-India summer monsoon rainfall and mean annual surface temperature

  19. 2041-60 2061-80 AOGCM Projected change in summer monsoon rainfall, relative to 1961-90

  20. 2041-60 2061-80 AOGCM Projected change in mean annual surface air temperature, relative to 1961-90

  21. Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability (IS92a)

  22. High-resolution Climate Change Scenarios using Regional Climate Model (ＨａｄＲＭ２／HadRM3)

  23. GCMs to Regional Adaptive Responses : Modelling Path

  24. The Hadley Centre Regional Climate Models(HadRM2/HadRM3H/PRECIS) • High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM • Formulation identical to HadAM • Grid : 0.44° x 0.44° • One-way nesting • Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian region • HadRM3H as well as PRECIS installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development at an advanced stage by using PRECIS at IITM

  25. Model Orography GCM RCM

  26. HadRM2 scenarios • Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60) • Each experiment has 20 years data • Monthly and Daily data on various parameters • Regridded data with uniform horizontal grid spacing • Spatial means for administrative units (states)

  27. Indian Summer Monsoon Simulations by HadRM2

  28. All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

  29. State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : HadRM2

  30. Indian Annual Surface Temperature Simulations by HadRM2

  31. State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2

  32. Simulation of Monsoon Depressions/Cyclonic Storms in HadRM2 and Likely Future Changes • Changes in Monsoon Depression/Cyclonic Storm Tracks in GHG Scenarios. • Frequency of Depressions/Cyclones. • Intensity of Storms.

  33. Sea level Pressure (SLP) Local Minimum SLP Departure < -5hPa Max. Wind Speed > 15 m/s Duration At least 2 days Criteria adopted for the identification of cyclonic storms (this includes severe storms and monsoon depressions)

  34. A typical Monsoon Depression as simulated in the regional model

  35. Monsoon Depression Tracks as simulated in HadRM2 control and GHG Experiments

  36. Pre and Post-Monsoon Cyclonic Storms and likely Changes in GHG Runs

  37. Frequency of monthly cyclonic disturbances (Max intensity in m/s) as simulated by HadRM2 for 2041-60

  38. Likely Changes in Extreme Rainfall and TMAX/TMIN Temperatures in India

  39. HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Rainfall Intensity Change in rainfall per rainy day Change in Annual number of rainy days

  40. Impact of Climate Change on the daily Extreme Rainfall (cm) amounts in India

  41. Location of Stations Considered in Extreme Temperature Analysis

  42. HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Temperature Extremes Change in extreme Minimum Temperature Change in extreme Maximum Temperature

  43. River Basins under Study

  44. Change in Monthly Rainfall in GHG Scenarios

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