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Climate Change Scenarios Requirement for Bangladesh

Climate Change Scenarios Requirement for Bangladesh. Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology. Outline. Overview of IWFM and BUET Vulnerabilities and natural hazards in Bangladesh

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Climate Change Scenarios Requirement for Bangladesh

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  1. Climate Change Scenarios Requirement for Bangladesh Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology

  2. Outline Overview of IWFM and BUET Vulnerabilities and natural hazards in Bangladesh Problems to assess future Hazards and Risks of Bangladesh Requirements of Climate Change Scenarios

  3. Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) • BUET has been established in 1962. • Yearly intake Undergraduate is 900 and Masters and PhD programs is 1000. About 5,500 students are pursuing undergraduate and postgraduate studies in Engineering, Architecture, Planning and Science. • 500 Teachers in 16 Teaching Departments under 5 Faculties and 3 Institutes.

  4. http://www.buet.ac.bd/

  5. Institute of Water and Flood Management Established in 1947 to pursues research and capacity development in the field of water and flood management. 16 Full time Faculty members specialized in water and environment.

  6. Academic Activities • Offered Ph.D., M. Sc. and Post Graduate Diploma in Water Resources Development. • Conduct short courses. • Publish Research Bulletin. • Organize International conference ICWFM 2009

  7. Research… • Development of a Water Resources Model as a Decision Support Tool for National Water Management. • Improving Flood Forecasting of Bangladesh using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Remotely Sensed Rainfall Data. • Water Impact Study of Atmospheric Brown Clouds. • Risk-based Evaluation of Brahmaputra Water Development in meeting Future Water Demand. • Impact of Climate and Sea Level Change in Part of Indian Sub-Continent.  

  8. Climate Change Study Cell • IWFM has established a climate change study cell in 2008 • The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the premier knowledge center on climate change risk and adaptation for Bangladesh. Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Mng. Launching Ceremony On March 08, 2009

  9. http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate/

  10. Bangladesh: A south Asian Country

  11. Topography of Bangladesh Himalays Bangladesh India Bay of Bengal

  12. Natural Vulnerabilities of Bangladesh Floods Cyclone Droughts Sea Level Rise Salinity River Erosion

  13. Too much water during monsoon More Floods

  14. DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON) Very Slight to Nil Very Severe Drought Severe & Moderate Severe Drought Moderate & Less Moderate Moderate Drought Sunderbans Less Moderate Drought Forest Slight Drought Water shortage during dry periods More Drought ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2075 ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2030 EXISTING DROUGHT

  15. Cyclone • Because of the funnel shaped coast of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh very often becomes the landing ground of cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal. • Till today, a total of 174 severe cyclones (with wind speeds of more than 54 km/hr) formed in the Bay of Bengal.

  16. Recent Cyclone SIDR

  17. Recent Cyclone SIDR Sundarbans Satellite Image Some photographs after cyclone passed over the coast

  18. Sea Level Rise

  19. Summary of Climate Change induced disasters • Increase of intensity and duration of floods, water logging, flash flood. • Increase of moisture stress (droughts) • Intensified storm surge, wave heights, erratic precipitation • Salinity intrusion (100 km inside the country during dry season) • Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness, ecosystem degradation etc) • Sea Level rise up to 69 cm.

  20. Need for Future Risk Assessment General Circulation Model Regional Circulation Model Statistical Downscaling Impact studies

  21. Steps of assessing impact of climate change

  22. Regional Climate Change Modeling in Bangladesh • PRECIS regional climate modeling developed by Hadley Center, UK is now running in Climate Change Study Cell at IWFM,BUET. • Currently running baseline (1960-1990) and A1B (1949-2100) scenarios over the Bangladesh region.

  23. Bangladesh region for PRECIS • Grids: 88 x 88 • Spatial Res. 25km • Predict up to 3 hourly • Needs more than 100 GB free space. • Uses LBC data from GCM (e.g. HadCM3) • Data available for A2, B2, A1B scenarios.

  24. Predicting Rainfall 2030 2050 [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

  25. Predicting Maximum Temperature 2050 2030 [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

  26. Predicting Minimum Temperature 2050 2030 [Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

  27. Climatic Condition of Bangladesh • Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years

  28. Change of Temperature (0C/year)

  29. Impact on Agriculture • Wheat and Boro coverage area of Bangladesh

  30. Need more realistic scenarios

  31. Thank you

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