1 / 7

Results of “Call for earthquake forecast models, test regions & forecast evaluation methods”

International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan” 27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo. Results of “Call for earthquake forecast models, test regions & forecast evaluation methods”.

keran
Download Presentation

Results of “Call for earthquake forecast models, test regions & forecast evaluation methods”

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan” 27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo Results of “Call for earthquake forecast models, test regions & forecast evaluation methods” Research group of earthquake forecast systems based on seismicity of Japan in collaboration with D. Schorlemmer, F. Euchner, and CSEP working group

  2. The earthquake forecast testing experiment • Current stage: Testing Center was installed and three models are under test. • Next stage: Use the existing Testing Center to start a formal testing this academic year Triple-S RI ALM

  3. Rules of the game • Testing regions • Default regions (d≤30km) with grid spacing 0.1 deg. • Invite test regions • Testing classes (Invite forecast models) • 1-day forecast • 1-year forecast • 5-year forecast • Future earthquakes that will be forecast: • The revised JMA bulletin. No declustering. • Number of earthquakes in a predefined time window for each magnitude bin in the range 5.0≤M≤9.0 (0.1 magnitude unit steps) at each predefined grid node within a predefined testing region. • Forecast evaluation methods • CSEP official suite • Invite forecast evaluation methods • We noticed this experiment to seismologists through our webpage and Newsletter of Seism. Soc. Japan in 2009

  4. Give notice of proposals • Earthquake forecast model proposal • Test region proposal and applicable forecast models • Forecast evaluation method proposal

  5. Forecast models • Seismicity-based forecast models with different earthquake-generation hypotheses. • ALM: D. Schorlemmer (1 yr) • Triple-S: J. Zechar (1 yr) • RI: K.Z. Nanjo (1 yr, 1 day if there is any proposed one-day model) • Asperity-based: S. Matsumura (1 yr) • Double-branching: W. Marzocchi (1 yr: need to be checked) • ETAS: Ogata (1 yr: need to be checked) • ETAS: J. Zhuang (1 yr: need to be checked) • MARFS, MARFSTA, & JMM: C. Smyth (1 yr)

  6. Proposed test regions Default all Japan with d≤30km (proposed by CSEP): ALM , Triple-S, RI, Double-branching, ETAS (Ogata), ETAS (Zhuang), MARFS, MARFSTA & JMM. Same with d≤100km (proposed by EFSSJ): Models are invited Off Ibaraki with d≤100km (proposed by Matsumura): Asperity-based Kanto with d≤100km (proposed by Nanjo): Models are invited

  7. Evaluation methods • CSEP official suite that is currently used: J. Zechar • Likelihood-based N, L, R-tests • Alarm-based tests • Conventional likelihood-based methods: M. Imoto

More Related